Ottawa Senators' Third Line Producing First-Rate Underlying Numbers

As the hockey adage goes, the process is more important than the results. The principal belief is that the long-term benefits created by a sound process will eventually outweigh the short-term results.

Like last night's 3-1 loss to the New Jersey Devils, the impact of the loss is minimized because of how the Senators played. It was arguably the team's best structural performance of the season against a strong and disciplined Devils team.

Despite the score, NaturalStatTrick's game data shows the Senators generated 49.52 percent of the shots (CF%), 51.85 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 54.17 percent of the scoring chances (SCF%), and 50.18 percent of the expected goals (xGF%). It was a closely contested match, and at the risk of sounding like D.J. Smith, with some luck and better bounces (i.e. the four posts the team hit), the outcome could have been different.

The belief is that if the Senators can replicate how they played through long stretches of last night's game, better outcomes lie ahead.

The same belief can be extended to the Senators' third line. Through four games, the trio of David Perron, Shane Pinto and Michael Amadio have only been on the ice for one Senators goal.

Individually, the point production just has not been there. Shane Pinto has been the most productive member of the group, with a goal and an assist. The free-agent additions of Perron and Amadio have been held pointless.

The lack of counting stats that you would find on the back of a hockey card may concern fans who want to see some return on the investment that the Senators made. A deeper dive into the numbers reveals a bigger picture.

According to NaturalStatTrick's five-on-five data, Perron has the highest individual shot rate on the team at 13.85 shots per 60 minutes. To put that into perspective, even though it is early, Perron's averaging almost two and a half more shots per 60 than the shot-generating machine, Brady Tkachuk. (As an aside, from the past five seasons combined, only David Pastrnak, Nathan MacKinnon and Auston Matthews have produced higher shot rates than Brady.)

Amadio has Ottawa's fourth-highest shot rate (9.95). Perron and Amadio have the team's first and third-highest individual expected goal rates, respectively.

Although the Senators' nominal third line has not produced, their five-on-five play has been exemplary. The trio has generated 51.36 shots per goal per 60 (SF/60). That rate leads the Senators while also being the second-highest rate of any line in the NHL that has spent 20 or more minutes together. Their 84.20 shots per 60 (CF/60) is the league's eighth-highest mark, while their 4.38 expected goals per 60 (xGF/60) is the league's 11th-best rate.

The trio is not selling out for offence, either. This line has suppressed the opposition's shot and goal-based metrics. Its 1.71 expected goals allowed per 60 (xGA/60) is the league's 17th-best rate.

Considering the quality of skill at the top of the Senators' lineup, my assumption at the beginning of the season was that this line could create matchup problems and exploit them.

A struggle of the Senators' team from years past is their inability to sustain shifts in the opposition's zone. Rush chances and one-and-done efforts often undermined the Senators' efforts and usually led to the team spending more time in their end defending.

It's an area new head coach Travis Green was looking to change.

"(Extending offensive zone time)'s been a big emphasis from the coaching staff this year," Amadio said. "How do we create more zone time? That's what we've been trying to work on through camp, and it'll be a focus for us throughout the year. Keep our details good, make sure we're keeping the puck alive in the o-zone, and trying to (keep the opposition) down there."

Perron echoed Amadio's comments about getting away from being a one-and-done team.

"The mentality of teams that are one-and-done, it seemed like something that was talked about here in the past, but you're trying to score every shift. It's not that you're not trying to score, but you have to do the right thing. The team's identity, the structure of the team (have to be sound), and then that will create offence.

"You can't just be forcing things all over the ice. You wind up getting wide on the outside on the perimeter. You end up not creating as much, and maybe one line will do it and be successful at it, but there's no way a team can win the Stanley Cup or be a successful team doing that in the long run."

So, what makes the line so effective?

Amadio cited Perron and Pinto's two-way aptitudes.

"They're both hardworking, skilled guys," Amadio reflected. "They can make plays, but they're also responsible in the defensive zone. They're both smart with the puck, so I just try to do my part to get open and make sure we have details in our game when we're working."

Perron believes it is a potent combination of players that can provide momentum every shift.

"I think playing with (Pinto), he had a really good finish to the preseason," Perron explained. "He's a solid player. I've been really impressed with him off the ice. He seems like a great guy, too. (Amadio), he's just a solid player. Really reliable. Good stick on the forecheck. He just kind of plays a very simple game that's solid in all aspects."

Perron's competitiveness around the front of the net and his strength along the boards are essential to his line's effectiveness.

"It keeps me in the league, so I have to keep being good at it," Perron said."My strength is to be gritty in the corner, be gritty in front, and do whatever is necessary to sustain offensive zone play.

"It's a big thing if you play in the O-zone for 20 seconds and only 20 seconds to not even a minute, they're not gonna score the other way on you. Their guys get tired, and we get a good change. The next thing you know, we have two minutes in the O-zone now. The next line will score because the line before created that goal really because they're playing against tired players. Not everyone notices that, but usually, the coaches and your teammates do, and that's what matters."

Pinto's goal heading into the season was for his line to create mismatches.

"That's our goal," he said. "I think Mikey's an unbelievable player. I don't think he gets enough credit for how skilled he is. He's a very sneaky, skilled player, and then, obviously, DP has been very successful in this league for a long time, so hopefully, we can do that for our team and create mismatches.

"In this league, if you don't play defence, you've got to be good in the O-zone to protect pucks. (Perron and Amadio) do a great job of being strong along the walls and winning their battles, and that'll lead to more O-zone time. That leads to less time in the D-zone, so that's definitely a big emphasis this year. It makes it for an easier game. If you're in the O-zone, that's the fun zone, and it keeps the puck out of the D-zone."

Since arriving in the league, Pinto's underlying metrics have always reflected him as a strong defensive player. It is often rare to see that in such a young and relatively inexperienced pro player, but it is his attention to detail on the defensive side of the puck that makes this trio click.

Pinto attributed his defensive aptitude to his development time at the University of North Dakota and his instincts.

"Brad Berry (and their coaching staff) did a good of making sure I played the right way in college," Pinto explained. "I think that translated pretty well into the league here, and I give a lot of credit to them. We did a lot of video when I was younger, from 18 to 19, just learning the game, and I think I brought that into the league here. I always take pride in it.

"A lot of it comes down to instincts at the end of the day. You can sometimes overthink it a little too much, and that's where it leads to bad results. I trust my instincts out there, and obviously, you go with your team's system, so you've got to learn that first, but after that, once you have that in place, I think you've got to trust your instincts and go from there."