Ottawa Senators Will Need More Out of Their Third Pairing On Defence

After Monday's waiver deadline passed without any activity on the part of the Senators, head coach Travis Green held court with the media and revealed his opening day roster.

The performance and play of some AHL veterans spurred some intrigue into which direction the Senators could go in with their fourth line. Still, most of the attention on the roster centred around which defencemen the team would carry on opening night.

Unfortunately, the air was let out of the balloon earlier Monday morning when the best story from the preseason, the unexpected progression and production from Carter Yakemchuk, had ended. The organization announced they had returned the seventh overall selection from the 2024 NHL Draft to the WHL's Calgary Hitmen.

General manager Steve Staios visited the studios at TSN 1200 for a lengthy interview, during which he elaborated on how challenging Yakemchuk had made the decision.

"You draft the player, bring him to camp, watch him through camp and how he handles certain situations," said Staios. "We kept throwing more at Carter, and he continued to impress us with what he was able to do. He made it very difficult for us.

"At the end of the day, he's a 19-year-old defenseman, and we see the potential of him. Our fans see the potential. They know where he can take his game. To try and rush it along, getting him in and out of games, playing him in certain situations. I like the idea of him having some stability, going back and being a leader on his team, playing in all situations, and we have some time with Carter. At the end of the day, I think it was good on him to make it so challenging for us to have him to send him back, and that's all on him."

There is no shame in Yakemchuk's demotion. He opened his eyes with his play and gave a great representation of himself, which was remarkable for a 19-year-old defenceman experiencing his first professional camp.

That he lasted until the final day of cuts also reflects the calibre of the alternatives. Postmedia's Bruce Garrioch hinted at the possibility of the Senators adding an extra left defenceman on the waiver wire as they finalized their rosters, but a claim never materialized, leaving Travis Hamonic, Jacob Bernard-Docker and Tyler Kleven as the third-pairing options.

During the same TSN 1200 interview, Staios was asked if he had confidence in this trio. The general manager expressed faith.

"Yes, I am. I think we didn't see the best of Travis Hamonic last year," stated Staios. "He was dealing with a knee injury. He had surgery to get that cleaned up. He's come in really good shape and is turning into the defenseman that, or going back to the defenseman we had a year ago. He's the guy that we used to see the most in the '80s, but he's now a former defenseman, and he's looking to be a better defensive player than he was before. Everybody looks for these right-shot defensemen who are in their mid-30s and have experience and passion. He's really been good through training camp."

The Travis Hamonic redemption tour is in full swing. Everyone from his teammates to the coaches and management have sung praises for the veteran defenceman and how good he looks coming off surgery. He's 34 years old, so he's not in the best shape of his life, but this camp certainly has the best shape of his life vibes.

Hamonic is a popular teammate, so seeing this kind of support is hardly surprising, especially at the beginning of the season when everyone starts with a 0-0-0 record.

Hopefully, he plays at a higher level than he did last season, but when it comes to Hamonic's underlying analytics, they have not been good since the 2018-19 season in Calgary. According to Evolving-Hockey's data, his isolated defensive impacts have been at a sub-replacement level for the last five seasons.

When Hamonic is on the ice, his team tends to give up a disproportionate volume of shots and expected goals.

The underlying results are ugly. Should they continue, many will blame the previous regime for giving Hamonic a two-year extension protected by a full no-movement clause. While reasonable, current management could have explored the possibility of a buyout as a mechanism to get out from underneath it.

Staios would continue.

"Tyler Kleven's taken a step. I thought he got off to a bit of a slow start at camp, but certainly, he's moving in the right direction. I left Tyler down in Belleville a little bit longer. When this moment happened, and now he's with our team, he has that under his belt. We were just talking about Carter, but (it is a) similar approach where we want to make sure that when our prospects are ready, they're ready. They've had that experience to be able to step in and there's still going to be bumps in the road for these young players. But certainly, I think they're better equipped to handle it. (Jacob Bernard-Docker) is another young defenceman who gave a stretch of good games last year, and again, I think he's a solid young defenseman for us."

Staios may have opened the season confidently, but he cannot be pleased with how his third pairing of Kleven and Hamonic performed in the home opener.

While Kleven was on the ice at five-on-five, the Senators recorded four shots for and 31 against (11.43 CF%), while Hamonic was not much better. The Senators generated seven for and 28 against (20.00 CF%). Although the Panthers never scored a goal while either of these two were on the ice, the Senators only generated an expected goals for percentage (xGF%) of 7.41 with Kleven on the ice and 27.70 with Hamonic on the ice.

In the 12 minutes and 15 seconds that the pairing was on the ice, the Senators generated 16 percent of the total shots (CF%) and 9.39 percent of the expected goals (xGF%).

The duo spent too much time hemmed into their end, and their last two shifts in the third period reflect this. Kleven's last two shifts were 1:13 and 2:12 in length, while Hamonic's were 2:03 and 2:14, respectively.

This kind of performance is not sustainable. Inevitably, these two cannot play any worse and should see their underlying metrics naturally regress to something more positive.

Thankfully.

Playing the defending Stanley Cup champions is a tough draw to start the season, but the numbers should improve. The real question is, by how much?

They overcame this performance thanks to Linus Ullmark's stellar debut, but having a third pairing that does not get caved in would take a ton of pressure off their goalies and their top four.