Ottawa Senators Battling The Flu? Merilainen Pushing Forsberg; Tyler Boucher Finally Heating Up

Two consecutive losses on back-to-back nights is hardly how the Senators intended to ring in the New Year.

Less than 24 hours after their captain Brady Tkachuk characterized their effort in a 4-2 loss to the Dallas Stars as embarrassing, the St. Louis Blues followed that up by shutting out the Senators 4-0 on Friday night.

The Senators have dropped four of their last five games and have one regulation win in their last seven.

There is no question that the team's schedule has been uncharacteristically unbalanced and challenging. Of the Senators' 38 games, 23 have been played facing Western Conference opponents. Their Tuesday night matchup against the Detroit Red Wings will mercifully conclude a nine-game road trip borne out of necessity because Ottawa hosted the 2025 IIHF World Junior Championships.

Fortunately, despite their consecutive losses, the Senators remain in the Eastern Conference's second wild card spot because they banked points earlier in this trip. Another optimistic perspective is that there may be additional context for the team's recent slide.

The Senators have only generated 33 total shots on goal in these two games. At five-on-five, the Senators have produced 43.85 percent of the shots (CF%), 41.18 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 22.22 percent of the total goals (GF%), and 36.48 percent of the expected goals per NaturalStatTrick.

They have uncharacteristically looked lethargic and passive with their five-on-five play. As reported by the 'Coming in Hot Podcast' and TSN 1200's Gord Wilson, one possible explanation is that the roster is dealing with the effects of the flu.

Although he played in Dallas on Thursday night, Tim Stützle missed the pregame skate and is one identified player fighting through symptoms. The eye test certainly lends itself to that. Personally, I cannot recall the last time Stützle's play looked this nonthreatening. Usually, his explosive skating and edgework singlehandedly drive play and create chances for his line. Those traits have been absent in the last two games.

Looking at January's schedule earlier this week, I initially did not like the four-day layoff between last night's St. Louis game and their Tuesday matchup in Detroit. It may be a blessing, given the team's battle with illness.

Forsberg's Struggles

If the Senators are going to make a concerted push for the postseason in the second half of the season, they will need more stabilizing play from the backup goaltending position.

Anton Forsberg played on Friday night for the first time since sustaining a lower-body injury during warmups in the team's December 14th game against the Pittsburgh Penguins. His previous appearance was a 3-2 loss to the New York Islanders on December 8th.

In consideration of his layoff, I do not want to criticize the performance of a goaltender returning from injury reflexively. In saying that, it is hard to ignore his body of work this season.

Forsberg has recorded a sub-.900 save percentage in nine of his 12 appearances this season, including allowing four goals on 25 shots last night.

Interestingly, two of the games in which he stopped more than 90 percent of the shots were instances where he faced more than 30 shots in a game. It can be challenging to stay sharp when the shots and chances are limited. Some goaltenders thrive on shot volume.

Whatever the case, Forsberg's play has not been good enough.

Through his 12 appearances, the goaltender's goals saved above expectation is -5.5, according to Evolving-Hockey's data. In other words, he has allowed five and a half more goals than he should have based on the quality of shots he has faced this season. Using this metric, only 14 goalies have allowed more goals than expected.

The silver lining is that Leevi Merilainen looked highly competent while making 30 saves in the team's 3-1 win over Minnesota last Sunday.

The 22-year-old prospect has stood out in Belleville on the strength of a 7-2-2 record and a .901 save percentage.

Although Merilainen lacks Mads Sogaard's size, he does share some pedigree.

The Senators drafted him in the third round of the 2020 NHL Draft, and the goaltender won a silver medal with Finland at the 2022 IIHF World Junior Championships.

This season, his play and performance at the NHL and AHL levels have safely allowed him to leapfrog Sogaard on the organizational depth chart. The more important question, however, is whether his play has warranted him an opportunity to leapfrog Forsberg.

It would be reasonable for the Senators to afford Merilainen more time to marinate and develop in the minors, but there is no question the organization needs more out of Forsberg. If the Senators cannot get that, they need to explore alternatives.

Boucher Beginning to Heat Up

Speaking of Belleville, Tyler Boucher, the organization's 10th overall selection from the 2021 NHL Draft, is finally beginning to produce as a professional.

After only playing 83 games across the last seasons split between the NCAA, OHL, and AHL, Boucher began the 2024-25 season being held pointless through his first 15 games this season.

Boucher scored a nice, shorthanded goal on Friday night in Syracuse.

It marked the first time in his professional career that he scored goals in back-to-back games, and the goal gave Boucher points in four of his last five games.

After poor drafts and some unfortunately shortsighted trades depleted the Senators of valuable draft capital in recent years, the organization has been left with a relatively thin farm system.

There is no question that injuries have hampered Boucher's development, but if he can begin to parlay these recent efforts into a strong finish to his AHL season, it would be a tremendous developmental story for the organization and help reestablish his value as a viable NHL prospect.

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