Ottawa Senators Analytics Update: While Chabot Shines, Sanderson's Struggles Are Real

Evolving-Hockey has revealed its first batch of 2024-25 proprietary data. Most of Evolving-Hockey's data is free to view, but specific site pages house their unique metrics, requiring a subscription to access.

I have a subscription, so now that enough games have occurred, I can intriguingly check and see whether their analytic data backs up the ol' eye test for the Ottawa Senators. The team has played in just 14 games, so it is worth reminding readers that we are still dealing with a relatively small sample size of games, but here are my biggest takeaways from today's data release:

Thomas Chabot's Value

With the exception of Travis Hamonic, no one defenceman on the Senators takes more heat for his defensive performance than Thomas Chabot.

Despite his obvious talents and strengths, fans have lamented his ability to defend. A lot of that frustration focuses on his lack of physicality and the occasional untimely read. No one will mistake Chabot for the prototypical bruising defenceman from yesteryear, but his shortcomings and salary certainly contribute to making him one of the more polarizing players. Interestingly, Evolving-Hockey's metrics portray Chabot as having a positive defensive impact this season.

Their 'total defence' (DEF) metric combines a player's defensive contributions while shorthanded and at five-on-five into one value. Chabot's 1.8 DEF value is tied with another for the highest on the Senators - which I will get into later.

When Chabot's contributing positive value defensively, the good news is that he's often providing some exceptional offensive value in the form of his puck-moving ability. While DEF looks at a total defensive value added, 'total offence' (OFF) combines a player's offensive contributions at five-on-five and while on the power play. Thomas Chabot and Nick Jensen have the league's highest and second-highest OFF ratings.

Their success at five-on-five has been well-documented. When they are on the ice together, the Senators have generated the majority of the shots (55.98 CF%), shots on goal (56.65 SF%), total goals (55.72 GF%), and expected goals (53.51 xGF%).

Chabot's impact certainly is not reflected through the numbers you would find on the back of his hockey trading cards (1 goal, 7 assists), but good things have happened for the Senators while he and Jensen have been on the ice. This, in turn, has led to Chabot possessing Evolving-Hockey's second-highest 'wins above replacement' value (WAR) in the entire NHL behind Florida's Sam Reinhart.

Tyler Kleven Takes a Step

While Thomas Chabot accrued the most offensive value and held a share of the team lead in defensive value, he held that honour with the third pairing's Tyler Kleven.

Travis Green has spoken several times at his media availabilities about how, during Artem Zub's absence, he called upon Jake Sanderson and Travis Hamonic's pairing to play difficult minutes against the opposition's best forwards. Doing so allowed him to shelter the Kleven and Jacob Bernard-Docker pair with easier minutes and favourable zone starts.

The context certainly adds something to the numbers, but it is hard to discount what the third pairing accomplished in their time together. Of the pairings around the league that played 100-plus minutes together at five-on-five, the Kleven-JBD pairing had the fifth-lowest expected goals allowed per 60 rates (xGA/60).

The early results are encouraging because of management's decision to move on from Erik Brannstrom. The organization pivoted to emphasizing size and structure; with Kleven, that calculated gamble is paying off.

With Zub's return, Kleven's numbers will be something to monitor as JBD has taken a seat and been replaced by veteran Travis Hamonic.

Sanderson's Struggles Are Real

According to Evolving-Hockey's 2023-24 data, Jake Sanderson was the 25th most valuable defenceman in the league by WAR.

This season, his metrics are those of a replacement-level defenceman. Through 14 games, Sanderson has accrued -0.2 WAR, slightly below what a league-average defenceman would be expected to contribute.

None of that is truly surprising, however. The young defenceman has one goal and nine points on the season, all but one of those points has come on the power play. The other was a shorthanded assist.

The Senators have simply struggled while Sanderson has been on the ice at five-on-five. They have been outscored 12 to four (25.00 GF%) while finding themselves on the wrong side of the shot and goal metrics.

Travis Green can express confidence that nothing is wrong with Sanderson's game, but his decision-making and play have tapered off considerably from the team's first few games. There is no question that his play has inevitably suffered from having to play with an anchor of a defensive partner, so hopefully as Artem Zub gets acclimatized and finds his legs, this pairing and Sanderson's play can return to last season's norms.

Which brings me to...

Travis Hamonic's Struggles Are Real

His coaches and teammates alike appreciate the affable veteran, but for all the talk about how improved Travis Hamonic looks following offseason knee surgery, the data does not back it up.

Evolving-Hockey's data portrays Hamonic as the team's least valuable player (-0.7 WAR) and defenceman who has accrued the lowest defensive value (-0.8 DEF).

It gets worse.

Only Cody Ceci has accumulated less value (-0.9 WAR) than Hamonic. And, he plays for the Sharks, a franchise engaged in a rebuild that San Jose has not seen since its pitiful early 90s days when Pat Falloon was the talk of the town.

What compounds Hamonic's struggles is that the alternative, Jacob Bernard-Docker, is not only available but he has fared well.

The Senators have an analytics department, so it stands to reason the organization has this data and is familiar with it. The coaching staff is simply beholden to a veteran player they are affording every opportunity to, before moving onto to the younger and more effective player.