Ottawa Senator Playoff Hopes Hinge On A Big (And Healthy) Second Half From Their Top Four D

graeme nichols

Sat, Jan 18, 2025, 1:12 p.m.·4 min read

When the Ottawa Senators traded Jakob Chychrun for Nick Jensen and a third-round pick, there was a duality to the announcement.

On the one hand, it was hard to blame fans who looked at the opportunity cost used to acquire Chychrun and wondered if that was all the Senators could fetch for the 26-year-old defender. Conversely, at the other end of the spectrum were those who recognized what a poor fit Chychrun was for the Senators when they already had two quality left-shot defencemen in Jake Sanderson and Thomas Chabot.

Nick Jensen's acquisition reflected general manager Steve Staios' pursuit of a natural right-shot defenceman who could be the right fit.

After last season's ineffectiveness with Chychrun and after years of enduring defensive partners like Nikita Zaitsev, Ron Hainsey, and Cody Ceci, the decision to add a competent right-shot defender to complement Chabot represented a marked change.

On paper, the Senators' top four represented the most balanced and talented collection of players since 2006. Expectations grew proportionately with that improvement, and there was anticipation that Jake Sanderson would be poised to establish himself as one of the preeminent defensemen in the NHL.

Unfortunately, after looking like a dominant force during the preseason, Sanderson's game has gone through some lulls for some long stretches. The 22-year-old blue liner would be the first to admit that his game can reach a higher and more efficient level, but it is hard to ignore some extenuating factors.

Injuries have disrupted the Senators' lineups. His most common partner last season, Artem Zub, sustained a violent concussion in the third game of the season, and upon his return, he did not resemble his usual self. After eight nondescript games, Zub suffered a fractured foot, which caused him to miss another 16 games.

Without his regular partner, Sanderson was tasked with carrying the veteran Travis Hamonic. It was a struggle. According to Evolving-Hockey's defensive pairing combos tool, in the 382.8 minutes this pairing has been on the ice at five-on-five together, Senators have generated 50.1 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 48.62 percent of the shots (CF%), 45.66 percent of the expected goals (xGF%), and 25.40 percent of the actual goals (GF%).

Since Zub's return, however, he has resembled the player of old, and Sanderson looks much better for it. It is encouraging because the Chabot-Jensen pairing has done the heavy lifting this season. Chabot's had a resurgence and has arguably been the Senators' most valuable player this season.

I looked through all of the Senators' game logs at NaturalStatTrick this season. More specifically, I researched how the Chabot-Jensen and Sanderson-Zub pairings have fared in the same game. Amazingly, there has only been one game this season in which both pairings have posted an expected goals for rate (xGF) percentage higher than 50 percent. The one game was the Senators' 3-0 shutout victory over the Toronto Maple Leafs on November 12th.

It is difficult to see Chabot miss time after being struck in the face with a puck earlier this week, but when he returns, if the Senators can get efficient play and puck-moving out of their top four, they will be a handful for teams down the stretch.

There are obvious concerns about the team's goal-scoring, and there is pressure on the forwards to score more, but the play of the defence can remedy some of those problems through clean puck movement.

Speaking of the defence corps, while doing more research, I wanted to examine the team's play since the Travis Hamonic injury.

Here are the team's statistics and ranks since January 4th:

Their won/loss record is 3-1-2

The Senators have allowed an average of 1.67 goals per game (2nd in the league)

Their penalty kill unit has an 84.2 percent success rate (8th)

Here are the five-on-five stats via NaturalStatTrick:

51.58 CF% (13th)

53.52 SF% (6th)

53.85 GF% (11th)

53.15 xGF (11th)

94.96 Sv% (4th)

Based on those numbers, if their top four can stay healthy in the second half, there's every reason to think the Senators could make a strong push for a playoff spot.

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