Georgia football is all out of excuses as CFP hopes shrink. Your move, Kirby Smart

After some significant results in college football last Saturday, Matt Hayes weighs in with his First-and-10 column looking at the key topics across the country ahead of Week 12.

1. Georgia: Dog day afternoon

This thing hasn’t looked right all season, a disjointed and dysfunctional slog from the jump.

Something is off at Georgia.

“There’s a lot of good football teams, and it’s a war of attrition,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said Monday.

And I’m not buying it. More specifically, I’m not buying Georgia anymore.

The days of walking on the field and winning on uniform and fear alone are long gone from the program that, not so long ago, won 29 consecutive games.

It’s here where we regurgitate the obligatory “Georgia thrives on doubt” speech. This, of course, means Georgia will flip the switch and roll Tennessee in Saturday’s de facto College Football Playoff elimination game.

But Georgia has delivered more doubt instead of thriving on it.

As if doubt is going to magically allow Georgia to protect the quarterback. Or not drop passes or throw interceptions.

Or not get beat at the point of attack (on both sides of the ball), and on deep throws in the secondary.

Smart points to the expanded SEC, and the new one-division format, as part of the problem. You know, better teams, expanded postseason, everyone playing hard deep into November.

Or that Georgia has played more games against ranked teams at road/neutral sites (4) than home games (3).

Again, I’m not buying it.

Because Georgia of the past chews up and spits out those tired narratives. And definitely doesn’t use them as a crutch.

The Dawgs have had two good halves of football this season: the first half of the Texas rout and the second half of the Alabama loss. Other than that, it has been a mishmash of bad play calls and bad execution.

That, and a lack of want and will — the two critical intangibles Georgia has oozed since Smart returned to his alma mater in 2016.

Now it’s a slog from one week to the next, never knowing which team shows up. The team that put the fear of God into Texas? Or the team that, without an injury to Florida quarterback DJ Lagway, would’ve lost the Gators as a 16-point favorite?

2. Saban: Tough act to follow

For all of the obvious comparisons between Smart and his mentor, former Alabama coach Nick Saban, we’ve avoided the one glaring red flag beginning to play out this season.

Saban was masterful at redefining himself when the moment demanded it. Smart hits rewind and play, constantly pounding an iron fist on what has made his team the most feared in the game: defensive dominance and intimidation.

Only now it's not working.

When offenses began relying more on elite quarterback play, Saban hired quarterback guru Lane Kiffin — when he was then a pariah in the sport.

When offenses began moving toward a more vertical pass game, Smart hired his best friend and college roommate, Mike Bobo — who was working as an analyst at Georgia.

When offenses began relying more on elite quarterback play, Saban shifted his focus to recruiting elite quarterbacks and receivers. From 2015-2018, Saban recruited and developed wideouts Calvin Ridley, Henry Ruggs III, DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle and John Metchie III, and quarterbacks Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa and Mac Jones.

A who’s who of college football in the last decade.

When offenses began moving toward a more vertical pass game in 2021, Smart landed elite players at quarterback — but hasn’t be able to consistently recruit the nation’s best high school receivers. Smart’s biggest receiver recruit, George Pickens, had 90 catches in three seasons.

Smart’s most productive receiver, Ladd McConkey, was a three-star recruit who wasn’t nationally rated and was a self-made NFL first-round pick.

Then this season arrived, and all of those wide receiver misses in recruiting have never been more apparent. Georgia leads the nation in drops, and its two best receivers — transfers RaRa Thomas and Colbie Young — were arrested for off-field legal issues. A third transfer (London Humphreys) has been injured much of the season.

Now quarterback Carson Beck, a Heisman Trophy candidate and potential first-round NFL Draft pick to begin the season, looks lost and out of answers.

3. Dog tired, The Epilogue

Beck leads the nation in interceptions, and has thrown 12 in the last six games.

Georgia’s leading rusher (Trevor Etienne) has 477 yards and is not among the top 100 rushers in the nation.

Georgia’s leading receiver (Dominic Lovett) is another transfer (from Missouri in 2023), and is averaging a measly 10.2 yards per catch.

The disruptive, dominating Georgia defense of years past has 21 sacks (2.3 per game), has forced 12 turnovers and has given up 13 plays of 30-plus yards. Georgia gave up 16 of those plays all of last season.

More: Who will be in the top 12? Our College Football Playoff ranking projection

This isn’t an anomaly. This isn’t that Georgia has played a difficult schedule (it has), or that the SEC is better (it is).

Georgia has come back to the pack and continues to deliver doubt every week.

Instead of thriving on it.

4. Ole Miss: The rise of Charlie Weis Jr.

Looking for a hot young assistant in this year’s coaching carousel? Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Charlie Weis Jr.

The Ole Miss offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach and play-caller, Weis has the Rebels’ offense rolling despite the loss of star wide receiver Tre Harris (missed last three games) and running back Henry Parrish Jr. (missed Georgia game).

Ole Miss is No. 2 in the nation in total offense (539.5 ypg) and No. 5 in scoring (40.7 ppg).

Weis, 31, turned down multiple job offers this past offseason from both college football and the NFL, and has a rare offensive mind. Legendary NFL personnel director Gil Brandt told me five years ago — when Weis was 26 — that he knew of only one coach who understood football better at such a young age: Bill Belichick.

Hyperbole? Sure. But the fact that Brandt had Weis and Belichick in the same sentence says something.

Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin has made a point this season to correct those who ask him about “his offense” and “his play calls” — deferring to Weis, whom he says runs the show and has become an elite developer of quarterbacks.

Case in point: Last week against Georgia, starting QB Jaxson Dart injured his ankle and left after the first series. Freshman backup Austin Simmons then led Ole Miss on a 10-play, 75-yard scoring drive – in the pouring rain – with critical third- and fourth-down conversions. He completed 5 of 6 passes for 64 yards on the drive.

Simmons is an elite talent, but that doesn't overshadow Weis having Simmons ready to play in such a big moment. That's coaching and play-calling, and putting your quarterback in position to succeed in a difficult environment.    

5. The Weekly Five

The top five potential quarterback transfer candidates at the end of the 2024 season.

1. Conner Weigman, Texas A&M

2. Miller Moss, Southern California

3. Jackson Arnold, Oklahoma

4. Tyler Van Dyke, Wisconsin

5. Air Noland, Ohio State

6. An NFL scout's take on North Carolina RB Omarion Hampton

An NFL scout analyzes a draft-eligible player. The scout requested anonymity to protect the team’s draft preparation.

“A strong, hard runner who finishes better than anyone in college football. He has that burst, that initial explosiveness, that can put a defense in conflict because he’s always moving forward. Puts his foot in the ground and goes. He needs work in the pass game, there’s no doubt. But it’s something that can be improved. It’s basic route-running as much as anything.”

7. Power Play: Tennessee rising, Miami falling

This week’s College Football Playoff power poll, and one big thing.

1. Oregon: Unless something wild happens over the last two games of the season (at Wisconsin, Washington), Ducks will be the No. 1 or 5 seed in the CFP.

2. Alabama: A month ago, the Tide was full of CFP doubt. Now it’s the favorite to win the SEC.

3. BYU: Cougars could lose any of their final three games of the regular season: Kansas, at Arizona State, Houston. "Stolen," or not.

4. Miami: Canes still the best team in a bad conference, but margin for error has been eliminated. Win the ACC or don’t reach the CFP.

5. Ohio State: Get through Saturday’s game at Northwestern without any significant injuries, and set up Indiana showdown on Nov. 23.

6. Tennessee: QB Nico Iamaleava will play against Georgia. Will he be ready for the big moment?

7. Ole Miss: No one has looked more impressive in back-to-back games than the Rebels against Arkansas and Georgia.

8. Texas: Longhorns still haven’t beaten anyone of significance. This is all based on potential and eye test.

9. Indiana: The burning question: How far do the Hoosiers fall (out of the CFP?) with a big loss at Ohio State?

10. Penn State: It’s wildly annoying that Penn State’s best win is its home loss to Ohio State.

11. Georgia: Win, and Georgia will move into the top eight as a CFP first-round host. Lose, and the CFP is gone.

12. Boise State: Another difficult road game against a San Jose State team that’s a handful of plays from eight wins.

13. Notre Dame: Check out the second half of the season schedule: Stanford, Georgia Tech, Navy, Florida State, Virginia, Army, at Southern California. Woof.

14. Texas A&M: Get QB Marcel Reed as much time with the starters as possible Saturday against New Mexico State, then pull him and protect him.

15. SMU: Don’t underestimate the whipping of Pittsburgh last week. We’re headed toward Cam Ward vs. Kevin Jennings in the ACC championship game — and it will be glorious.

16. Colorado: Love him or hate him, you can't deny the work from Buffaloes coach Deion Sanders. Colorado controls its destiny in the Big 12 race.

8. Mail bonding: The rising of Arizona State

Matt: Who is your biggest surprise team of the season? ― Victor Gregg, Indianapolis.

Victor: It would be easy to say Indiana, and how can anyone argue with it? But what Kenny Dillingham is doing at Arizona State in Year 2 is remarkable.

The program was left for dead amid NCAA violations and its best players leaving for the portal during the final years of former coach Herm Edwards (see: QB Jayden Daniels, WR Ricky Pearsall).

Arizona State won three games last season and was one of the worst power conference teams in the nation while Dillingham turned over the roster. Its last three losses were by a combined 163-39.

But Dillingham, who developed QB Jordan Travis at Florida State, has it completely turned in Year 2 with redshirt freshman QB Sam Leavitt. He’s protecting the ball (14 TDs, 4 INTs) and is 7-1 as a starter.

The Sun Devils are still alive in the Big 12 championship game race, in part because the defense has cut eight points per game from a 31-point average in 2023, and ASU is plus-7 in turnover ratio.

From last in the Pac-12 South Division in 2023 to playing important November games down the stretch in 2024 (at Kansas State, BYU, at Arizona) that – with a little help – could lead to playing for the Big 12 championship.

9. Numbers game: Army's big test

While we wait two weeks for unbeaten Army to prepare for its biggest non-Navy game in decades, let’s understand the enormity of what the Cadets are facing.

When Army arrives at Yankee Stadium next week to play Notre Dame, it will be the best defense the Cadets have faced all season. By a long, long way.

The Irish are No. 3 in the nation in scoring defense (No. 7 in total defense). Meanwhile, I give you the scoring defense of Army’s eight FBS opponents this season:

Florida Atlantic (111th in the nation), Rice (61st), Temple (128th), Tulsa (131st), Alabama-Birmingham (124th), East Carolina (85th), Air Force (82nd) and North Texas (119th).

10. The final word: The SEC and cupcakes

We’ve reached the mid-November portion of the SEC schedule, and that can only mean an exit ramp for cupcake games in the middle of the biggest month of the season.

Auburn (Louisiana-Monroe), Kentucky (Missouri State), Alabama (Mercer) and Texas A&M (New Mexico State) all get to exhale this week with guarantee games.

It wouldn’t be so unnerving if Auburn (Alabama A&M, New Mexico), Kentucky (Southern Mississippi, Ohio), Alabama (Western Kentucky, South Florida) and Texas A&M (McNeese State, Bowling Green) didn’t already feast in non-conference games.  

The SEC-Big Ten scheduling agreement can’t get here soon enough.  

Matt Hayes is the senior national college football writer for USA TODAY Sports Network. Follow him on X at @MattHayesCFB.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Georgia football excuses have CFP hopes at risk. Kirby Smart must fix it