Opinion: Ducks Unlikely to Utilize Offer Sheets this Offseason

NHL general managers have been notoriously shy when it comes to utilizing offer sheets. Before Tuesday, only ten offer sheets had been signed since the salary cap was introduced in 2005-06, and only two had been unmatched.

The St. Louis Blues shook up the NHL landscape in the middle of August when they tendered offer sheets to Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg of the Edmonton Oilers. The Oilers now have until Aug. 20 to decide if they're going to match those contracts or receive a designated compensation.

Offer sheets are a tool at the disposal of NHL clubs in which they can offer contracts to unsigned restricted free agents from opposing teams. If the player signs the offer sheet, the original team has the option to match the contract or receive draft pick compensation based on the average annual value of the offered contract and lose that player.

A few factors have contributed to NHL GM's aversion to the utilization of offer sheets to this point. First, they can be expensive. In 2024, any offer with more than an AAV of $4,580,917 will cost the offering team at least one first-round pick as part of the compensation package, and any AAV higher than $11,452,294 would cost four first-round picks. Second, GMs seem to prefer not to ruffle feathers, potentially damage working relationships with each other, and possibly face retaliation.

Teams making offer sheets must use their own draft picks as compensation to opposing teams. The Blues made a trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins before tendering offer sheets to Broberg and Holloway to reacquire their 2025 second-round pick.

Speculation dictates the Blues' calculated gamble with their pair of offer sheets could cause teams around the league to follow their lead and utilize this feature in the NHL's CBA more often. If teams were to jump on the bandwagon, there are still some intriguing names remaining on the RFA market, including Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider, Seth Jarvis, Thomas Harley, and Matthew Beniers.

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Could the Ducks tender an offer sheet to a remaining RFA?

A few factors render this notion unlikely for the 2025 offseason for the Ducks.

Several teams with remaining RFAs on their roster have the available salary cap space to match any offer sheet tendered within reason.

The Ducks are firmly in the process of turning the corner in their rebuild and are hoping to play more meaningful games later into the 2024-25 season. While that is their hope, there's still a significant chance their first pick in the 2025 NHL Draft will be within the top ten overall range.

Due to the Duck's likely apprehension toward parting with their 2025 first-round pick and several teams with players subject to offer sheets possessing ample cap space, players like Raymond, Seider, Jarvis, Harley, and Beniers along with other RFAs like Cole Perfetti, Dawson Mercer, Cole Sillinger, and Peyton Krebs are unlikely to receive an offer sheet from the Ducks, if they were inclined to take that route.

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The Ducks don't own their own second-round pick in 2025. On Jan. 8, the Ducks acquired Cutter Gauthier from the Philadelphia Flyers in exchange for Jamie Drysdale and the Ducks' 2025 second-round pick. In order to tender an offer sheet in the $2,290,457-$4,580,917 range, the Ducks would have to reacquire that pick from the Flyers, likely a costly venture similar to what occurred with the Blues and Penguins.

Predators forward Philip Tomasino would likely fall into the second-round pick compensation range, rendering him an unlikely target for the Ducks were they to tender an offer sheet.

Offer Sheet Possibilities

Two players the Ducks could target with offer sheets this offseason are Toronto Maple Leafs forward Nicolas Robertson and Nashville Predators forward Juuso Parssinen.

Robertson (22) scored 14 goals and 27 points in 54 regular season games with the Leafs in 2023-24. The Leafs currently have just over $1.2 million in cap space with a roster consisting of 12 forwards and seven defensemen under contract. Tendering an offer sheet with an AAV of $2,290,457 would force the Leafs to perform cap gymnastics were they to match. If they were to choose not to match, they'd receive a third-round pick as compensation.

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The Nashville Predators currently have just over $3 million in cap space with 11 forwards and six defensemen under contract with Tomasino and Parssinen in need of new deals. Parssinen (23) scored 12 points in 44 regular season games in 2023-24 and has 37 points in 87 career NHL games with the Preds. Similar to Robertson, the Ducks could offer Parssinen a contract with an AAV of up to $2,290,457 and only part with a third-round pick.

Adding a player like Parssinen or Robertson wouldn't drastically change the landscape of the Ducks lineup heading into the 2024-25 season. It would, however, bolster the middle of the lineup and add a depth scoring element lacking from the roster in recent years.

The Blues may have finally opened the offer sheet floodgates and it could become a more viable option for NHL GMs in the future. It's unlikely Pat Verbeek and the Ducks utilize it this summer, but using them could be a strategy moving forward in the years to come.

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