In only 16 games, John Calipari’s first season at Arkansas has reached a tipping point

Since Florida’s 71-63 victory at Arkansas on Saturday, a major narrative in the college basketball media has been that a John Calipari-coached team has now begun league play 0-3 for the first time in 36 years.

The only other time a Cal-led team lost its first three conference contests came in 1988-89, Calipari’s first season as a major college head coach. Massachusetts began Atlantic 10 Conference play 0-6 that year.

Even the 9-16 Kentucky team Calipari coached in 2020-21 avoided an 0-3 start to Southeastern Conference competition. In fact, buoyed by Dontaie Allen’s 23-point tour de force in a road win at Mississippi State in the SEC opener, UK actually began league play 3-0 that year.

So even though it is only 16 games into Calipari’s first season as boss Hog, it feels like the season for Arkansas (11-6, 0-3 SEC) has already reached a tipping point.

According to Whole Hog Sports, Calipari told the audience of his postgame radio show Saturday after the Florida loss, “We’re good. We’re fine. We’ve got to get through the hump, win a game and get going. But, I’m telling you, no one in this league is going to give you a win.”

The next four games for the Hogs — at LSU (Tuesday), at Missouri (Saturday), vs. No. 23 Georgia (Jan. 22) and vs. Oklahoma (Jan. 25) — are crucial.

If Calipari’s Razorbacks don’t win at least three of the four, a viable path to an NCAA Tournament at-large bid becomes much more difficult to envision.

The reality of life in this season’s brutal SEC — this week’s AP Top 25 has five SEC teams in the top eight; seven in the top 15; nine in the top 23 — is why the next four games are so important for Arkansas.

A four-contest stretch that features only one ranked opponent is about as manageable as the SEC has to offer in 2024-25. Alas, whether the Hogs can take advantage and get their season trending upward is far from certain.

During Calipari’s latter Kentucky seasons, there was much wailing about the coach’s outmoded approach to offense. Yet if you looked at the advanced metrics, it was defense that was undermining Cal’s final UK teams.

So far at Arkansas, however, the problem hampering Cal’s Hogs is unquestionably the offense.

Confirming all those who this past summer looked at Calipari’s roster construction and said “there are not enough shooters there,” Arkansas has gone a dreadful 14-for-68 (20.6%) on 3-point attempts in its SEC losses at Tennessee and vs. Mississippi and Florida.

Meanwhile, another old bugaboo of Calipari-coached teams has been biting Arkansas in SEC play. Through three league games, the Razorbacks have made only 65.3% of their free throws (47-for-72).

Through Sunday’s contests, Arkansas stands a pedestrian 75th in the country in offensive efficiency as tabulated at KenPom.com.

Old friend Adou Thiero (now pronounced “theee-roh” instead of “th-ERR-oh”) is having a breakout year for Arkansas, averaging team bests of 16.9 points and 5.9 rebounds a game. Former UK signee Boogie Fland is putting together a strong season at lead guard, producing 15.5 points with 88 assists vs. 25 turnovers.

However, on an Arkansas roster otherwise stocked with high-profile college transfers and former high school five-star recruits, no one else has yet consistently distinguished themselves.

Former Kentucky starting guard DJ Wagner is averaging 10.5 points on 44% shooting. Ex-UK big man Zvonimir Ivisic is averaging 7.9 points and 3.4 rebounds but has played only an average of 6.3 minutes a game in SEC competition.

For those Kentucky backers watching the Arkansas struggles and anticipating a Big Blue bludgeoning when the Hogs come to Rupp Arena on Feb. 1, a word of caution.

Former UK forward Aaron Bradshaw played, arguably, his best game of the season (11 points in 18 minutes while making five of six shots) to help Ohio State pummel Kentucky 85-65 last month in the CBS Sports Classic. That’s why you should anticipate an Arkansas roster populated by ex-UK players, recruits and coaches putting up a determined fight at Rupp Arena.

For Calipari and his Hogs to have more at stake than pride when they come to Lexington, they need to use the next four contests to turn the arc of their season upward.

Joe Lunardi’s most recent bracketology at ESPN.com had the Razorbacks clinging to one of the final four “byes” in the projected 2025 NCAA Tournament field of 68 — but that was posted Jan. 10, the day before the Florida loss.

Through games of Sunday, Arkansas stood 49th in the NCAA NET rankings. Among the 16 SEC teams, the Razorbacks are 14th in the NET.

It is the same story in the Pomeroy Ratings. Arkansas ranks 49th in the country and 14th among Southeastern Conference squads.

All of that is why, even though the first year of the Calipari era at Arkansas may only be 16 games old, it feels like the Razorbacks have already arrived at this season’s moment of truth.

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