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OKC Thunder 2024-25 season preview: Best in the West? Or will young stars stumble?

dan devine
Senior writer
·6 min read
(Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports Illustration)
(Grant Thomas/Yahoo Sports Illustration)

The 2024-25 NBA season is here! We're breaking down the biggest questions, best- and worst-case scenarios, and fantasy outlooks for all 30 teams. Enjoy!

  • Additions: Alex Caruso, Isaiah Hartenstein, Nikola Topić, Dillon Jones, Ajay Mitchell, Alex Ducas

  • Subtractions: Josh Giddey, Lindy Waters III, Bismack Biyombo, Gordon Hayward, Mike Muscala

  • Complete roster

(Henry Russell/Yahoo Sports Illustration)

Only one team had a better record last season than Oklahoma City. Only one outscored opponents by more points per 100 possessions. Only one joined OKC by finishing in the top five in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

That team won the NBA championship.

Maybe the Thunder — with what still ranks as the NBA’s youngest roster — aren’t as close to that Celtics team as the statistical résumé might indicate. It’s worth remembering, though, that while Boston pulverized the Dallas side that vanquished Oklahoma City, Thunder-Mavericks was dead-even across its six games, three of which were decided by four or fewer points — including Game 6, which P.J. Washington won with free throws after Shai Gilgeous-Alexander got whistled for a foul on a 3-point attempt with two seconds left.

Which is to say: Despite Dallas’ defense grinding OKC’s drive-and-kick game to a halt, despite non-SGA Thunderers missing nearly 70% of their 3-pointers, and despite Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. having the shot-making series of their lives against Mark Daigneault’s play-the-percentages defensive scheme, the Thunder were right there. And then Sam Presti went out and plugged their biggest — only? — holes.

Out goes Giddey, rendered all but unplayable in the postseason by his offline jumper. In comes Caruso, a better and higher-volume shooter and a better off-ball player who fully understands the assignment of a championship-level role player — Oklahoma City’s version, Presti hopes, of Boston landing Derrick White.

Even with more than a half-dozen perimeter players able to shoot, pass, cut, set screens and drive closeouts, though, the Thunder still had a glaring weakness on the offensive glass. So: in comes Hartenstein, who hauled in 14.4% of his teammates’ missed shots in New York last season, the league’s second-highest offensive rebounding rate.

It gets better: Caruso and Hartenstein also happened to be two of the best defensive players in the NBA last season — steal, deflection and block magnets whose penchant for disruption only fortifies a swarming defense that forced turnovers more often than anyone else and who should further juice a transition attack that ranked among the league’s best.

OKC has an All-NBA First Team No. 1 option in SGA, who just became the ninth player ever to average 30 points, five rebounds and five assists per game with a true shooting percentage north of .600 — the other eight are either already in the Hall of Fame or will be the second they’re eligible — and who can be the best player on the floor in any game from October through June. It has two more dudes who could merit All-Star consideration as soon as this season in the ascendant Jalen Williams and transformational stretch big Chet Holmgren.

It has nine guys who shot 37% or better from deep last season — shouts out to Chip Engelland, imported from Texas to work his magic — and don’t be surprised if Hartenstein starts letting them fly, too. With Caruso joining Luguentz Dort, Cason Wallace, Williams and Gilgeous-Alexander, it has the NBA’s best stable of point-of-attack defenders outside of Boston. With Hartenstein joining Holmgren, it has 48 minutes of elite rim protection, plus the flexibility to play double-big lineups to better control the glass (and play the now en vogue Length on the Ball with More Length Behind coverage on Nikola Jokić).

It appears to have everything — and, if a need does spring up, Presti can look to fill it by dangling some of the 17 first-round picks it controls between now and 2031. All that’s left, then, is to turn last spring’s shortfall and this summer’s reinforcements into another dominant regular season and 16 playoff wins.

Youth is rarely served in the NBA. But then, youth has rarely been this friggin’ good.

The newcomers function exactly as envisioned, resulting in the Thunder fielding top-two units on both ends and proving to be the class of the league from the opening tip. SGA wins MVP, J-Dub and Chet earn All-Star nods, and the rest of the supporting cast earns Bricktown’s undying affection. Oklahoma City returns to the NBA Finals for the first time since 2012 — and wins the franchise’s first championship since the move from Seattle.

Progress, it turns out, isn’t linear, and a rotation overflowing with 25-and-under types stumbles in its attempt to build on last season. Last year’s across-the-board-elite 3-point shooting regresses, emboldening opponents to pack the paint and cramp Gilgeous-Alexander’s style; Williams stagnates as a shot creator, unable to keep the offense afloat when SGA rests. There’s still enough depth to carry OKC through to the playoffs, but the ceiling suddenly seems lower, firmer — and no higher than last year’s second-round exit.

The Thunder's big three of Gilgeous-Alexander, Holmgren and Jalen Williams will be gone after the fourth round in most fantasy drafts. Is it worth investing in any other OKC players after they're off the board? Last year, it wasn't. Josh Giddey's minutes and role diminished while Lu Dort was the next-best Thunder player, finishing 192nd in category leagues. However, this year will be very different, and I'm betting that Isaiah Hartenstein (ADP 83) and Alex Caruso (ADP 105) will outperform their ADPs.

I outlined why Hartenstein is one of my breakout centers, but in summary, his skill set fills a necessary void as a rebounder, additional rim protector and short-roll playmaker. Conversely, Caruso is an elite 3-and-D stocks specialist who will make defenses pay as a catch-and-shoot threat on the perimeter.

Both players haven't averaged over 30 minutes a night in their careers but rank in the 80-90th percentiles in points per shot attempt (PSA) and assist-to-usage ratio, per Cleaning the Glass. Their high IQs, per-minute effectivity and defensive prowess will bode well in real life and fantasy. Don't sleep. — Dan Titus

That’s a big number — only 19 teams in the last 10 seasons have won 57 or more — but this is a big team. I’ll take the over. Rumble, young men: Rumble.

East: Atlanta Hawks • Boston Celtics • Brooklyn Nets • Charlotte Hornets • Chicago Bulls • Cleveland Cavaliers • Detroit Pistons • Indiana Pacers • Miami Heat • Milwaukee Bucks • New York Knicks • Orlando Magic • Philadelphia 76ers • Toronto Raptors • Washington Wizards

West: Dallas Mavericks • Denver Nuggets • Golden State Warriors • Houston Rockets • Los Angeles Clippers • Los Angeles Lakers • Memphis Grizzlies • Minnesota Timberwolves • New Orleans Pelicans • Oklahoma City Thunder • Phoenix Suns • Portland Trail Blazers • Sacramento Kings • San Antonio Spurs • Utah Jazz