Oilers Should Be Even Better In Second Half

We've officially arrived at the halfway point of the Oilers' season.

Despite a mediocre start, the Oilers are in about as good a position as anyone could've hoped for going into the year. True, they're not at the top of the league or even their own division, but they've got a playoff spot all but locked up (97.9% according to MoneyPuck, over 99% according to The Athletic) and are on pace for another 100-point season.

They sit second in the Pacific Division with a 25-13-3 record, a 50-win, 106-point pace that would be their second-best season since the mid-1980s. If the playoffs started today, they'd be set for a fourth consecutive first-round matchup with the Los Angeles Kings, who are pacing just ahead of the Oilers through their first 38 games.

The 41-game benchmark is also a convenient time to take stock of each player's production. This year, it's a case of good news/bad news for the Oilers.

First, the good news: Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid. Draisaitl is on pace to set a new career high in goals (62) and finish third in the league in points (122) as he takes a run at his second Hart Trophy. The Rocket Richard Trophy is his to lose: nobody else is even within five goals of his league-leading 31, and second-place Brayden Point (25 goals) won't shoot 30% forever.

McDavid, meanwhile, is having one of the best "down years" ever. With 58 points in 38 games, he's on pace for 121 points in 79 games if he doesn't miss another game this season. That would be his lowest full-season total since 2018-19, but still the tenth-highest scoring season of the Salary Cap Era. Remarkably, despite Draisaitl's dominant season, McDavid is still outscoring him on a per-game basis.

The bad news is that almost nobody else is scoring. Only Evan Bouchard (62-point pace) and Zach Hyman (52) are on pace for 50 points, both huge decreases from last season. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jeff Skinner, and Viktor Arvidsson are all scoring at or near career-low paces, and even breakout performances from Darnell Nurse and Connor Brown are far from career-high paces.

Things are looking up for the Oilers in the second half. MoneyPuck has the Oilers finishing with 106 points, second in the division and fifth in the league. The Athletic is more bullish, projecting the Oilers for 109 points and their first Presidents' Trophy since 1987.

The Athletic's model also unsurprisingly expects McDavid and Draisaitl to keep it up. McDavid is projected to finish second in the scoring race with 37 goals and 124 points, while Draisaitl is projected to take home the Hart and Rocket Richard despite slowing down a tad with 54 goals and 119 points.

These projections, of course, don't include the possibility that the Oilers make some additions during the second half of the season. With $5.1 million in LTIR money available thanks to Evander Kane's knee surgery, they'll almost certainly add a player or two between now and the March 7th trade deadline.

The first half of the Oilers' season has been a success, but the second half could be even better. They were one of the very best teams in the league in the second quarter, and if they can keep that up and avoid another big slump, they'll easily outplay their current pace.

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