Yahoo Sports By The Numbers: No Skater In The NHL Has Accrued More Value Than Ottawa Senators' Defenceman Thomas Chabot
While scouring Evolving-Hockey's database for another article, I came across the unexpected.
According to the site's proprietary 'Wins Above Replacement' (WAR) and 'Goals Above Replacement (GAR) level metrics, no skater in the league has accrued more value than the Senators' Thomas Chabot.
For readers unfamiliar with statistical models, they are used to determine a player's worth. These models compile measurable values contributed in different facets of the game and combine them into a single value to determine how many more wins or goals a player is worth than a replacement-level player.
It is important to remember that WAR is not infallibly precise. Metrics like WAR and GAR are approximations based on proprietary models that rely heavily on publicly available data. These values will never be as accurate as we would want, but they offer a ton of comparative value when looking at players' contributions across the league.
Last season, the top three skaters in WAR were Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, and Connor McDavid respectively. The top four defencemen? Quinn Hughes, Evan Bouchard, Roman Josi, and Miro Heiskanen.
On the surface, it feels pretty accurate.
Thomas Chabot leading the league in WAR through 31 games, however?
It is interesting, considering his surface-level statistics.
Chabot only has two goals and 15 points on the season. There are 37 defencemen, including teammate Jake Sanderson, who have accumulated more points than the 27-year-old veteran defenceman.
Although Chabot's production levels do not stand out, there is no denying the impact he and his partner, Nick Jensen, have had on the Senators' on-ice performance.
Using Evolving-Hockey's 'Combos' tool, in the 427 minutes that the Chabot/Jensen pairing has been on the ice at five-on-five, the Senators have generated 55.56 of the shots (CF%), 55.51 percent of the shots on goal (SF%), 55.41 percent of the expected goals, and 60.77 percent of the actual goals (GF%).
Of the defensive pairings around the league that have logged more than 200 minutes together, only the Jakob Chychrun/John Carlson pairing has generated a higher on-ice goals per 60 rate (4.18 GF/60) than the Chabot/Jensen duo's 3.92.
On the defensive side, like many of his teammates, Chabot's playing some of his best hockey.
Plus/minus is languished as a flawed metric, but it is impossible to ignore the different kinds of modern plus/minus statistics that Evolving-Hockey tracks. Its database tracks the differential rate of shots, shots on goal, goals and expected goals that the Senators record with Chabot on the ice.
Looking at the far right columns, you can see that for the first time in Chabot's career, there is a marked improvement in the rate of goals (G+-/60), shots on goal (S+-/60), shots on goal (C+-/60) and expected goals (xG+-/60). He is blowing his previous totals out of the water, and the season is not halfway over.
It is a detail corroborated by HockeyViz's isolated impacts.
When Chabot is on the ice, the effects are indisputable.
Now contrast that with Chabot off the ice offensively and defensively.
The inconsistencies and ineffectiveness of the Jake Sanderson and Travis Hamonic pairing has put a lot of pressure on the Chabot/Jensen duo to play at a high level. To this point, they have lived up to the bargain.
Coupled with a third pairing of Tyler Kleven and Jacob Bernard-Docker that have thrived in limited and sheltered minutes, these two defensive pairings have allowed the blue line to survive and thrive.
Considering how much attention was deservingly paid during the preseason forecasts to the organization's lack of defensive depth, the success is surprising. Had fans known that Artem Zub would have only played in 11 of the team's first 31 games and forced Hamonic into a top-four role, the reasonable reaction would be to suggest that the Senators would be in trouble.
There have certainly been ebbs and flows, but the Senators have shown some resilience and persevered. It is this performance, along with the impending return of Artem Zub from a fractured foot, that I believe is encouraging.
Even if Linus Ullmark's recent hot stretch diminishes, imagine the Senators can reintegrate Zub and eventually have him and Sanderson perform at a level resembling last season's play.
The Senators will be in a really good spot and it all starts on the back end with Chabot.
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