Noah Syndergaard unlikely to sign an extension with Mets, willing to test free agency

Maybe it’s Manny Machado’s recent $300 million contract. Maybe it’s the talk about fellow New York Mets starter Jacob deGrom setting an Opening Day deadline to sign an extension. Maybe he’s just feeling confident in himself.

Regardless, Noah Syndergaard is not spooked by the slow offseason.

In speaking to the press on Wednesday, including The Athletic’s Tim Britton, Syndergaard said that he’s willing to play out the final three years of team control without an extension and hit free agency in 2021.

“I trust my ability and the talent that I have. So I feel like I’m going to bet (on) myself in free agency and not do what they did,” Syndergaard said. “But if it’s fair for both sides and they approach me on it, then maybe we can talk.”

Talk of an extension for the 26-year-old ace is extremely topical since Philadelphia Phillies righty Aaron Nola and New York Yankees righty Luis Severino each signed four-year extensions last week. Boston Red Sox ace Chris Sale said he’d be open to an extension as well, although he’s set to hit the market next winter.

Still, Syndergaard is willing to buck the recent trend and aim for a bigger pay day.

How big of a risk is free agency?

There’s no way around it: the last two winters have been dreadfully slow for players. The four biggest free agent contracts did not come until February — J.D. Martinez, Yu Darvish, Eric Hosmer and Machado — and Bryce Harper is still waiting to find an acceptable contract.

Yes, free agency is broken, but it still seemingly is working well for the stars. Where it’s really hurting players is in the middle; Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel and Marwin Gonzalez are still without contracts. And there really doesn’t seem to be a market for early-30s middle-class players like Adam Jones and Carlos Gonzalez, which is a particular problem since most players hit free agency for the first time after turning 30.

Syndergaard is certainly not a middle-of-the-road player, at least as it seems now. Although he has only pitched 518 1/3 innings in his four seasons thanks in large part to injuries, he’s been outstanding when healthy. Since 2015, his 2.93 ERA is topped only by Clayton Kershaw, deGrom and Max Scherzer, while his 4.94 K/BB ranks seventh.

Syndergaard could be in line to crack the $30 million threshold that has been broken by Kershaw (twice), Scherzer, Zack Greinke and David Price. But there’s a lot that can happen in the meantime.

Why wouldn’t Syndergaard want to lock in an extension?

The appeal for Nola and Severino’s extensions are clear: $40 million may be below their market rates, but they are still locking in life-changing money. Nola had only made $1.63 million to this point — on top of a $3.3 million draft bonus — while Severino had made $1.67 million plus the $225,000 he earned as an international free agent.

However, to lock in that money, Nola and Severino gave away free agent years. Nola is giving away two free agent years that will be valued at $15 million and $16 million, while Severino was bought out of a single free agent year at $15 million.

It’s certainly conceivable that Nola and Severino would be worth double those figures on the open market. Not only that, but Nola won’t be able to hit free agency until he is 31, and Severino will be 30 when he hits the market. That appears to be a risk Syndergaard doesn’t want to take.

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Syndergaard is slated to hit free agency at age 29, and it sounds as though he’d prefer to earn the biggest contract of his career then. If he locked in guaranteed money now, he may see a lower payday in the future by signing a deal at age 31. Greinke and Kershaw both earned $30+ million AAV contracts well after turning 30, but it’s a big risk.

Of course, there are plenty of other risks with waiting too. This offseason was one of the most highly anticipated in years in part because a Mets ace was going to hit the market. Coming off a year in which he held a 2.71 ERA over 189 1/3 innings, Matt Harvey looked like the next $200 million pitcher in 2015. But in the three years since, injuries and inconsistency held him to 5.39 ERA, and he recently settled for a one-year, $11 million deal.

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