How No. 12 Kentucky matches up against No. 8 Tennessee — with a game prediction

How the No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats (14-5, 3-3 SEC) and the No. 8 Tennessee Volunteers (17-3, 4-3 SEC) match up at each position for Tuesday’s men’s college basketball game at Thompson-Boling Arena — with a game prediction:

Small forward

▪ Since Jaxson Robinson (12.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 43.1% FGs, 85.2% FTs) was held to five points in Kentucky’s 82-69 loss at Georgia on Jan. 7, the UK wing has averaged 17.8 points a contest in the four games since. With UK point guard Lamont Butler sidelined by a shoulder injury, it seems likely Mark Pope will call on the 6-foot-6, 192-pound Robinson to assume more ball-handling responsibility in Knoxville. Robinson has faced Tennessee twice before: In 2020-21, while playing for Texas A&M, he had two points and one rebound in seven minutes in a 68-54 loss to the Volunteers. The following season, while playing for Arkansas, Robinson hit a trey for three points in a 78-74 loss at Tennessee.

▪ Tennessee’s Jahmai Mashack (5.9 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 39 steals, 48.8% FGs, 33.3% treys) is in a stretch of offensive efficiency. The 6-4, 202-pound senior from Fontana, California, has made 15 of 25 field goal tries over the past five games. In Tennessee’s gut-wrenching 53-51 loss at No. 1 Auburn on Saturday night, Mashack played well with seven points, six rebounds, two steals and a blocked shot. Mashack has appeared in six previous games vs. UK and has been largely a statistical non-factor — other than scoring 16 points and claiming eight rebounds vs. Kentucky in a 66-54 Volunteers loss to the Wildcats in 2022-23.

Advantage: Kentucky.

Power forward

▪ Kentucky super-senior Andrew Carr (10.9 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 42 assists vs. 14 turnovers, 53.9% FGs) was sidelined by back troubles for what became a 74-69 loss at Vanderbilt last Saturday. He is listed as “questionable” for the Tennessee game on UK’s Monday night injury report. With Carr out at Vandy, senior Ansley Almonor (5.7 ppg, 1.9 rpg, 49.3% FGs, 41.5% treys) made his first start as a Wildcat. A 6-7, 244-pound senior from Spring Valley, New York, Almonor was productive in Nashville, scoring 12 points and claiming four rebounds in 24 minutes. Almonor, a transfer from Fairleigh Dickinson, has scored in double figures in three of Kentucky’s past four games and has hit 8 of 16 3-point shots in that span.

▪ Tennessee’s Igor Milicic Jr. (10 ppg, 8.1 rpg, 45.2% FGs, 25.8% treys) is coming off a tough week. In last week’s games, the 6-10, 225-pound senior from Rovinj, Croatia, hit only 2 of 11 shots, 1 of 7 3-pointers, and scored only seven points combined in the loss at Auburn (four points) and in a 68-56 win over then-No. 14 Mississippi State (three points). A transfer from Charlotte, Milicic is capable of doing big damage on the glass. He has had seven double-digit rebound games this year, including pulling down a whopping 18 boards in UT’s 76-52 SEC win over Arkansas on Jan. 4.

Advantage: Tennessee.

Center

▪ Amari Williams (9.7 ppg, 8.6 rpg, 50 assists vs. 42 turnovers, team-high 30 blocked shots) had six points, five rebounds, four assists and two blocks in the loss at Vanderbilt. The 7-foot, 262-pound super-senior from Nottingham, England, has made 20 of 36 field-goal tries in UK’s first six SEC games. Williams has produced a points/rebounds double-double four times this season.

▪ Tennessee’s Felix Okpara (7.5 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 61.6% FGs) provides rim protection to Rick Barnes’ stingy defense. A 6-11, 235-pound junior from Lagos, Nigeria, Okpara has blocked 34 shots, tied for 41st in NCAA Division I men’s hoops. In the loss at Auburn, Okpara, a transfer from Ohio State, had six points, nine rebounds, two blocks and a steal.

Advantage: Even.

Shooting guard

▪ With Kentucky playing short-handed at Vanderbilt, Otega Oweh (15.9 ppg, 4.5 rpg, team-high 32 steals, 50.7% FGs, 32.6% treys) came up big for the Wildcats. A 6-4, 215-pound junior, Oweh went for 21 points, 12 rebounds and three assists in Nashville. The only knock on the Newark, New Jersey, product’s performance in the Music City was the four turnovers he committed. A paragon of consistency, Oweh has scored in double figures in all 19 Kentucky games to date.

▪ Tennessee leading scorer Chaz Lanier (18 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 41.4% FGs, 42.3% treys) has been in a shooting drought in SEC play. After making 10 of 20 shots, 5 of 9 3-pointers, and scoring 29 points in UT’s SEC-opening win over Arkansas, the 6-5, 207-pound super-senior has made only 25 of 82 field goal tries (30.5 percent) in the six subsequent contests. A transfer from North Florida, Lanier has played against Kentucky twice before. While the Ospreys absorbed a pair of blowout losses vs. the Wildcats in 2021-22 and 2022-23, the Nashville product combined to shoot 1-of-8 from the floor.

Advantage: Even.

Point guard

▪ Kentucky super-senior Lamont Butler (13.2 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 81 assists vs. 35 turnovers, 30 steals) injured his left shoulder during UK’s 81-69 win over Texas A&M on Jan. 14 and has subsequently appeared to be playing through discomfort. In UK’s two contests since A&M, both losses, Butler has shot a combined 8-of-21 and turned the ball over seven times. On UK’s Monday night injury report, Butler, a 6-2, 208-pound super-senior from Moreno Valley, California, is listed as “out” for Tuesday’s game in Knoxville. With Butler sidelined, one would guess that Kentucky will use Jaxson Robinson at the point and slide super-senior Koby Brea (10.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 47.1% treys) into the starting lineup on the wing.

▪ Tennessee’s Zakai Zeigler (12.3 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 150 assists vs. 62 turnovers; team-high 42 steals) is the engine that makes the Volunteers go. The 5-9, 172-pound senior from Long Island, New York, had 14 points, six rebounds, five assists and two steals in the loss at Auburn — but made only 4 of 15 shots. Zeigler has not shot the ball with great accuracy as a senior — 36.8% on FGs, 29.6% on treys. Last season, as Tennessee split two games against Kentucky, Zeigler was terrific against the Wildcats, averaging 22.5 points and 11 assists.

Advantage: Tennessee.

Bench

▪ With injuries sidelining Andrew Carr, Kerr Kriisa and now Lamont Butler, Kentucky’s effective depth has been vastly depleted. ... Super-senior Koby Brea (10.8 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 47.1% treys) may move into the starting lineup with Butler out. After hitting 7 of 9 treys and scoring 22 points in UK’s 106-100 win over Florida on Jan. 4, Brea has made only 7 of 26 3-pointers in the five games since. ... Freshman guard Travis Perry (1.6 ppg, 33.3% treys) may also get expanded minutes due to Butler’s absence. ... Sophomore center Brandon Garrison (5.9 ppg, 4.7 rpg, 42 assists vs. 24 turnovers) had eight points and five rebounds in 18 minutes at Vandy but also turned the ball over four times. ... For the first time in his UK career, freshman forward Trent Noah (1.8 ppg, 0.9 rpg, 44.4% treys) was given meaningful action against a quality team at Vanderbilt. In 12 minutes, the 6-5, 220-pound Harlan County product had two points, four rebounds and a steal.

▪ Tennessee’s depth has also been diminished, both by injury and by a player defection. ... Veteran guard Jordan Gainey (11.1 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 22 steals, 34.2% treys) is the Vols’ sixth man. A 6-4, 190-pound senior who began his college career at South Carolina Upstate, Gainey made only 3 of 10 shots combined in two games vs. Kentucky last season and averaged 3.5 ppg vs. the Wildcats. ... Sophomore forward Cade Phillips (5.4 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 57.7% FGs) is in a scoring slump. The 6-9, 216-pound product of Jacksonville, Alabama, has scored a combined three points in UT’s past three games.

Advantage: Tennessee.

Trends and history

▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Tennessee 161-78. In games played in Knoxville, UK leads UT 59-53.

▪ Tennessee coach Rick Barnes is 12-12 all-time vs. Kentucky and is 11-10 vs. the Wildcats since becoming the Volunteers head man in 2015-16.

▪ Kentucky coach Mark Pope has never faced Tennessee as a head man.

▪ UT is 11-0 this season in games at Thompson-Boling Arena. UK is 1-3 in true road contests.

▪ Tennessee is holding foes to an average of 58.35 points a game. Kentucky is 0-4 this season when it has been held below 70 points.

Advantage: Tennessee.

Prediction

Tennessee 69, Kentucky 62.

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