How No. 10 Kentucky matches up against No. 6 Florida — with a game prediction
How the No. 10 Kentucky Wildcats (11-2, 0-0 SEC) and the No. 6 Florida Gators (13-0, 0-0 SEC) match up at each position for Saturday’s men’s college basketball game at Rupp Arena at Central Bank Center — with a game prediction:
Small forward
▪ The month of December was not kind to the shot of Kentucky’s Jaxson Robinson (11.9 ppg, 4 rpg, 40.7% FGs, 29.8% treys). Last month, the 6-foot-6, 192-pound super-senior went 26-of-70 on field-goal tries and 11-of-39 on 3-point attempts. Forced to assume more of a ball-handling role since the injury to backup point guard Kerr Kriisa on Dec. 7, Robinson has seven assists and seven turnovers over UK’s past four games.
▪ Florida’s Will Richard (14.2 ppg, 5 rpg, team-high 28 steals) comes to Lexington on a torrid roll. In the prior three games, the 6-4, 206-pound Richard has made a combined 25 of 33 shots (75.8%) overall and 10 of 17 treys (58.8%). A former Belmont Bruin, Richard has not fared especially well against Kentucky in the past. In four prior games for Florida vs. the Wildcats, Richard has made 9 of 29 shots, 5 of 21 3-pointers and averaged 7.3 ppg and 4 rpg.
Advantage: Florida.
Power forward
▪ Kentucky super-senior Andrew Carr (11.3 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 34 assists vs. 11 turnovers, 55.4% FGs) has scored in double figures in five straight games. A 6-11, 235-pound super-senior from West Chester, Pennsylvania, Carr had a huge game vs. Florida last season while playing for Wake Forest in the ACC/SEC Challenge. In an 82-71 Demon Deacons victory, Carr had 22 points, six rebounds, two assists, three blocked shots and two steals and hit 8 of 13 field goals, 3 of 6 3-pointers and all three of his foul shots.
▪ Florida’s Alex Condon (11.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg, nine assists vs. 15 turnovers, 57.4% FGs) has struggled to make shots over the previous four games. Since making 7 of 8 shots and scoring 19 points in the Gators’ 87-69 win over Virginia in the SEC/ACC Challenge, the 6-11, 230-pound sophomore from Perth, Australia, has made only 9 of 28 shots since. Last year, Condon averaged 7 points and 3 rebounds as UF and UK split two games, each winning on the others’ home court.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Center
▪ Kentucky super-senior Amari Williams (10.1 ppg, 8.5 rpg, 29 assists vs. 25 turnovers) has made 60 percent of his shots, 27 of 45, over UK’s past seven games. The 7-foot, 262-pound Englishman has 110 rebounds on the season, tied for 58th in NCAA Division I. A transfer from Drexel, Williams is tied for 54th in the country in blocked shots with 22.
▪ Florida’s Rueben Chinyelu (5.2 ppg, 6.7 rpg, 57.4% FGs) is in an offensive slump. The 6-10, 260-pound product of Enugwu-Agidi, Nigeria, has made only 8 of 22 shot attempts combined over the prior five games. A transfer from Washington State, Chinyelu is active on the glass — he has had at least six rebounds in 10 of 13 games to date.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Shooting guard
▪ Kentucky junior Otega Oweh (team-high 15.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg, team-high 20 steals, 50.7% FGs) has been UK’s rock. The 6-4, 215-pound junior from Newark, New Jersey, has scored in double figures in every game this season. Oweh had 13 points and four steals in UK’s 88-54 blowout of Brown on New Year’s Eve.
▪ Florida’s Alijah Martin (15.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 40 assists vs. 23 turnovers, 24 steals) will be a familiar face to UK point guard Lamont Butler. A 6-2, 210-pound super-senior, Martin is a transfer from Florida Atlantic. Martin had 26 points and seven rebounds in FAU’s 72-71 loss to San Diego State in the 2023 Final Four — a game that Butler won for SDSU with a last-second jumper. A product of Summit, Mississippi, Martin is one of the best rebounding guards in men’s college hoops: He has had five boards or more in nine games this season.
Advantage: Even.
Point guard
▪ Kentucky super-senior Lamont Butler (13.3 ppg, 3.1 rpg, 45 assists vs. 19 turnovers) hit 10 of 10 shots en route to a career high 33 points in UK’s 93-85 win over Louisville on Dec. 14. In the two games since, Butler, a 6-2, 208-pound super-senior from Moreno Valley, California, has combined to make 3 of 12 shots. With backup Kerr Kriisa sidelined by an injury, Butler’s minutes have escalated. In his first eight games of the season, Butler averaged 22.5 minutes a game. In the three games Butler has played since Kriisa’s injury, he has averaged 28 minutes a game.
▪ Florida senior Walter Clayton Jr. (17.2 ppg, 3.2 rpg, 49 assists vs. 26 turnovers, 46.7% FGs, 37% treys) was the clutch-shooting star of the Gators’ 94-91 overtime win over UK in Lexington last season. A 6-3, 195-pound transfer from Iona, Clayton went 7-of-13 from behind the arc and hit a 3-pointer with three seconds left in regulation to tie the game at 84. In the OT, Clayton hit the go-ahead trey with 1:42 left and then added two clutch foul shots with 16.4 seconds left to help Florida seal the deal. The 23 points Clayton scored at Rupp Arena matched his scoring output in UF’s 87-85 loss to UK last season in Gainesville. This season, Clayton has scored more than 20 points five times.
Advantage: Florida.
Bench
▪ Kentucky super-senior wing Koby Brea (11.9 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 49.4% treys) was 20-of-27 (74.1%) on 3-pointers in UK’s first five games. Over the past eight contests, Brea, a 6-7, 215-pound super-senior, is 18-of-50 (36%). ... When Kentukcy has won big games, sophomore center Brandon Garrison (5.5 ppg, 5.1 rpg, 30 assists vs. 14 turnovers) has tended to play well. The 6-10, 250-pound Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, product had eight points and four rebounds vs. Duke; 10 points and nine boards vs. Gonzaga; and five points, four rebounds and four assists vs. Louisville. ... Senior forward Ansley Almonor (5.2 ppg, 1.8 rpg, 34.4% treys) hit 42.9% of his 3-point tries (9 of 21) in November; the 6-7, 244-pound senior hit 31.3% of his trey tries (5 of 16) in December. ... Freshman guard Travis Perry (1.1 ppg, 21.4% FGs, 25% treys) scored four points in the win over Brown and the ex-Lyon County High School star looked more comfortable than he had in prior games.
▪ Florida’s Thomas Haugh (7.5 ppg, 5.9 rpg) is an offensively skilled big. The 6-9, 215-pound sophomore is making 40 percent of his 3-point tries and has 18 assists vs. nine turnovers. Against UK last season as a freshman, Haugh did not score but had seven rebounds combined in two games. ... Denzel Aberdeen (7.2 ppg, 2.5 rpg) is a streaky shooter. Over Florida’s prior five games, the 6-5, 190-pound junior from Orlando has made, in order, 4 of 5 shots, 1 of 5, 5 of 6, 1 of 5 and 4 of 5. ... A transfer from Chattanooga, Sam Alexis (6.8 ppg, 5.3 rpg) is coming to Kentucky in the midst of a rebounding tear. The 6-8, 240-pound junior from Apopka, Florida, has had 12 rebounds in each of the past two games, a 99-45 strafing of North Florida and an 85-45 blasting of Stetson.
Advantage: Florida.
Trends and history
▪ Kentucky leads the all-time series with Florida 110 to 42. The Wildcats have won 10 of the past 12 meetings.
▪ Florida coach Todd Golden is 1-5 vs. UK. The win came in the most recent game between the Wildcats and Gators, however, a 94-91 overtime win for Florida in Rupp Arena on Jan. 31, 2024.
▪ New Kentucky head man Mark Pope has never coached against Florida. In his pre-UK head coaching career at Utah Valley and BYU, Pope went 1-3 vs. teams now in the SEC.
▪ Mark Pope at BYU and Todd Golden at San Francisco overlapped for three seasons (2019-20 through 2021-22) in the West Coast Conference. The coaches went head-to-head seven times, with Pope going 4-3. Golden won the final two meetings, though, including San Francisco’s 75-63 win over BYU in the 2022 WCC Tournament quarterfinals.
▪ Florida is 1-0 in road games in 2024-25, having won at archrival Florida State 87-74 on Nov. 15. Kentucky is 9-0 in Rupp Arena but, to date, the Wildcats have faced only one power conference foe — a 93-85 win over the ACC’s Louisville on Dec. 14 — at home.
Advantage: Kentucky.
Prediction
Kentucky 82, Florida 80.
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