The NHL's Best Surprises In Net At The Quarter Mark: Dostal, Daccord, Stolarz And More

If you’re not a regular visitor to the goalie page at moneypuck.com, the names at the top of this season’s list of most goals saved above expected would probably catch you by surprise.

Put simply, GSAE is calculated by subtracting the number of goals that a netminder is expected to allow from the actual number of pucks that have gotten past him. A positive number reflects a better-than-expected performance.

The numbers vary somewhat on different analytics sites, depending on how expected goals are calculated. But generally speaking, the stat serves as a pretty solid representation of the true quality of a goalie's play.

Last year, Vezina Trophy finalists Connor Hellebuyck, Thatcher Demko and Sergei Bobrovsky finished first, second and sixth on the list, respectively.

This year, even though Hellebuyck comfortably leads the NHL with 13 wins this season, he’s currently outside the top 10 in GSAE. The Panthers are also off to a strong start, but Bobrovsky is down in the negatives.

There are some fresh faces staking claims in the upper reaches of the list. Here's a look:

Lukas Dostal, Anaheim Ducks

Though Dostal didn’t earn a single Calder Trophy vote despite having started the 2023-24 season as the NHL’s first rookie of the month, he did demonstrate the ice in his veins when he anchored his native Czechia to gold on home soil at last spring’s World Championship, snagging best goaltender honors in the process.

This year, Dostal has taken another step forward. He’s leading the NHL in goals saved above expected despite playing on an Anaheim Ducks team that is still finding its footing. And even though the Ducks surrendered a league-high 34.1 shots per game, Dostal has a respectable 2.69 goals-against average to go along with his .924 save percentage.

With John Gibson now back in action following his appendix surgery, Anaheim has won three straight and climbed into the crowded wild-card race in the Western Conference.

Turning 25 in July, Dostal is making just $812,500 this season. He’ll be an RFA with arbitration rights at year’s end — well-positioned for a major payday.

Joey Daccord, Seattle Kraken

A seventh-round pick who cut his teeth in the then-new Arizona State hockey program, Joey Daccord had logged just 19 NHL games over four seasons before an injury to Philipp Grubauer pressed him into action for 50 games with the Seattle Kraken last season.

The affable Bostonian seized the moment, posting a winning record and .916 save percentage along. His season highlight may have been a 3-0 shutout win over the Vegas Golden Knights, which had nearly 50,000 fans chanting his name at the 2024 Winter Classic at T-Mobile Park.

Last season, Daccord finished the year at 3.8 goals saved above expected. This season, he sits second behind Dostal at 10.6. The Kraken are the only team in the Western wild-card mix with a positive goal differential.

Now 28, the Kraken rewarded Daccord with the first big contract of his career in October: five years at $5 million per season. He has responded by taking his game up another notch, with a 9-3-1 record and .923 save percentage that has caught the eye of both Canada and the U.S., with 4 Nations Face-Off rosters soon due.

Related: Team Canada Is Seriously Considering USA-Born Goalie Joey Daccord For 4-Nations Face-Off

Filip Gustavsson, Minnesota Wild

It’s time to get back on the Gus Bus.

Since he landed in the NHL in 2021, Filip Gustavsson has been consistently inconsistent. When he’s good, he’s very good. But each strong season is followed by a rough one.

Happily for the Minnesota Wild, this is one of the good years. Gustavsson is 9-3-2 behind a defensively strong team that is giving up the fewest expected goals against at 5-on-5 per 60 minutes, according to naturalstattrick.com. In just 14 appearances, Gustavsson is already nearly halfway to matching his 20-win total from last season.

Even in a good environment, Gustavsson has still saved 7.1 goals above expected this season. That’s tops for any Swedish goaltender, so he’s also in the process of elbowing his way back into the 4 Nations conversation.

Related: NHL's Biggest Pleasant Surprises At The Quarter Mark: Jets, Capitals, Wolf And More

Anthony Stolarz and Cam Talbot, Toronto Maple Leafs and Detroit Red Wings

These two veteran stoppers are grouped together because they signed identical UFA contracts this summer. On July 1, Talbot signed his two-year deal at a cap hit of $2.5 million with the Red Wings. Stolarz followed suit with the Maple Leafs one day later.

Funnily enough, the two were also traded for each other nearly six years ago. In a 1-for-1 deal at the 2019 trade deadline, Stolarz went to the Edmonton Oilers and Talbot to the Philadelphia Flyers.

Talbot is six-and-a-half years older and has a much larger body of work, with 497 games under his belt compared to just 120 for Stolarz. Both have been late bloomers, and while Stolarz’s career arc has largely been slowed by injuries, Talbot has sometimes had trouble turning steady netminding into wins for his teams.

This year, both players have been effective in their new homes. Talbot is 5-3-2 with 7.2 goals saved above expected, effectively winning the No. 1 job in Detroit, while Stolarz has been a solid 7-3-2 for Toronto, with 5.7 goals saved above expected.

If they can keep doing what they’ve been doing, they’ll finish out the year as a couple of the best value signings from the 2024 free agent class.

Related: The Toronto Maple Leafs' Best Off-Season Acquisition Cements No. 1 Role

Logan Thompson, Washington Capitals

Thompson’s backstory as an undrafted former Canadian university goaltender who was plucked out of the ECHL by the Vegas Golden Knights overshadows the impressive body of work that he amassed in Sin City: a 56-32-11 record over four seasons, with a .912 save percentage.

Playing out the last year of a rock-bottom contract that carries a league-minimum salary of $775,000 (and a cap hit that’s even lower), Thompson has maintained that performance level now that he’s on a new team in Washington.

He's outplayed Charlie Lindgren and currently sits in the Top 10 in GSAE. On Thursday, he suffered his first regulation loss of the year in a 2-1 defeat at the hands of the Colorado Avalanche. That dropped his record for the year to 8-1-1.

Related: Ovechkin's Injury Doesn't End His Chase For Gretzky After Giving Capitals Breathing Room

Get the latest news and trending stories right to your inbox by subscribing to The Hockey News newsletter here. And share your thoughts by commenting below the article on THN.com or by visiting our forum.