Taylor Hall's move to Chicago offers chance for career renaissance

Five years and one week ago, Taylor Hall won the Hart Trophy. On Monday, he was a salary dump by the Boston Bruins.

A series of events like that isn't unheard of, but still difficult to process in this case. Hall isn't a player who's aged out of being useful. He's just 31.

One season ago, the former first overall pick put up 61 points, the fourth-highest total of his career. His 2022-23 campaign was not characterized by outstanding offensive production (36 points in 61 games), but it seems a little early to presume his days of putting up strong numbers are done.

Because of the Bruins' dire need for cap space, moving off of Hall was defensible, but it's possible that his new team — the Chicago Blackhawks — might squeeze more out of him than Boston did last year.

No one expects another Hart Trophy to find its way onto Hall's shelf, but it's worth examining what the chances of a career renaissance for the winger are.

What went wrong for Hall in 2022-23?

Not a lot went right for the veteran during the regular season, but the easiest explanation for his dragging production is a reduction in ice time. Hall skated just 15:56 per night in 2022-23 — a career low — and he saw his opportunities continually shrink as the season went on.

If we divide the winger's 2022-23 season into pre and post January 1, it's clear that usage, and shooting luck, played a major role in his struggles down the stretch.

The lost ice time affected Hall, but how he was used might have played an even bigger role as he went from a player consistently deployed in prime situations to one who was constantly buried in his own end. To some degree his performance dictated his usage, but shooting luck seemed to play into that performance.

Hall's declining production was also affected by his limited power-play time. He played a career-low 42.7% of his team's minutes with the man advantage, and finished the year with just eight power-play points — the second lowest total of his career. For reference, in his first 12 seasons Hall averaged 15.5 power-play points.

If Hall had produced at a higher level, he might've been deployed differently, but it can't be ignored that he was on a historically great squad that had plenty of other options to give the best offensive opportunities to.

The Bruins were never incentivized to be particularly patient with Hall whenever he struggled, and his most common linemates were Charlie Coyle and Trent Frederic. Coyle hasn't topped 16 goals or 45 points since 2016-17 and Frederic has 54 NHL points in his career. Neither player is the type of guy who was likely to drive up Hall's numbers.

How might he bounce back?

Hall might not become a better player in 2023-24, but he's likely to be presented with better opportunities than he received in 2022-23.

A Blackhawks team that is devoid of talent up front is likely to bump up the veteran's power-play time, and he's a logical fit along the flank of presumed first overall pick Connor Bedard. If we buy the premise that Bedard is a prospect who ranks between Connor McDavid and Auston Matthews at this point in their careers, it's fair to expect an instant NHL impact.

Matthews scored 40 goals and produced 69 points as a rookie, if Bedard is anywhere in that general area, Hall will have a lot more to work with than he did alongside Coyle and Frederic. The veteran is an excellent passer whose 0.95 primary assists/60 at 5-on-5 rank 32nd in the NHL since the beginning of 2021-22.

Hall should have fun setting up a phenom who boasts an incredible shot like this:

While Hall's own scoring hasn't been particularly explosive in recent years, once in a while he still demonstrates the high-end skill that suggests he hasn't forgotten how to find the back of the net.

Hall projects to get more offensive-zone starts with the Blackhawks and more power-play time. He'll likely get plenty of chances to play with Bedard at even strength and with the man advantage. That sounds like a recipe for a bounce-back season.

The Max Domi example

Many of the assumptions about Hall thriving in Chicago are a touch speculative, but we have proof of concept for how things could look based on what happened with Domi last season.

Between 2019-20 and 2021-22 the forward played for three different teams and never topped 44 points in a season. His ice time slowly dwindled and he averaged just 15:06 per night over that span. By 2021-22 he was only playing 29.1% of his team's power-play time.

A move to Chicago changed everything for Domi. In 61 games with the Blackhawks he was featured heavily, skating 18:18 per game while getting plenty of looks on the top power-play unit (67% of all PP time) and an offensive-zone start rate of 67.1%.

Domi responded by producing 49 points and setting career-highs in power-play goals (8) and points (19). He became a valued trade chip at the deadline, a strong playoff contributor, and one of the NHL's most-coveted free agents.

Hall may be a couple of years older than Domi, but he's also more skilled, and has been a strong producer more recently than Domi had been at the time he went to Chicago. It's not hard to envision Hall following in Domi's footsteps.