Can the Kraken upset the Avalanche in their Stanley Cup playoff debut?

If you only look at where the Colorado Avalanche and Seattle Kraken finished their seasons, you might get the idea that everything more or less went as planned.

On Jan. 14, the Kraken boasted a record of 26-12-4, with a .667 points percentage that ranked first in the entire Western Conference (and sixth overall). Meanwhile, the defending champion Avalanche ranked 18th in points percentage (21-17-3, .549 percent) and were still in an awkward spot where a playoff berth was in serious doubt.

Despite being defending Stanley Cup champions, the Avalanche battled through injuries and inconsistencies before they found their way. In their second year of existence, you’d think the Kraken would be the ones enduring such struggles.

For all of the differences in star power and expectations, there are interesting similarities between these two teams. Like the Avalanche becoming instant contenders after relocating to Colorado, the Kraken are spoiling locals with a quick climb to NHL relevance. Each team also leans on analytics for team-building strategies, and the Kraken have already plucked away some prominent former Avs in Philipp Grubauer and Andre Burakovsky.

Make no mistake about it, though. The Avalanche figure to be heavy favorites over the grungy, newbie Kraken.

What have you done for me lately?

Several top NHL teams finished the regular season red-hot, and the Avalanche can stake a claim to being the hottest of them all. They won seven of their last eight games and roared up the Central Division ranks with a 16-2-1 finish. That said, they also received some unfortunate news that is all too fitting with their rocky season up to date, as Gabriel Landeskog won’t be able to return from lingering knee issues.

After taking care of weak competition to the tune of a five-game winning streak (thus extracting themselves from concerns about squandering their first-ever playoff berth), the Kraken lost their final two games of the season — both to the Vegas Golden Knights. Since March, they’ve mostly won games they should win and lost when facing teams ahead of them (although Seattle did beat Colorado 3-2 in OT on March 5).

The Kraken won two of their three head-to-head games, limiting scoring with a 7-6 goals advantage in those matchups.

The Avalanche will win this series if …

Even if you believe the likes of Vince Dunn and Jared McCann deserve more kudos, there’s no denying that Colorado owns a massive advantage in star power. Nathan MacKinnon notched 69 assists on his way to 111 points in 71 games, giving him almost as many helpers as Kraken leading scorer Jared McCann had points (70). While MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen create havoc in all game situations, that talent edge could really get out of hand if officials use their whistles and call penalties.

The Kraken will win this series if …

To chart a path to a big upset, the Kraken would hope to Xerox the results from those head-to-head games. The dream would be to force this series to be low-event and low-scoring, to the point that a few lucky bounces could swing things their way. Look closely at the Kraken’s defensive heat map enough at Hockey Viz, and you might just talk yourself into this scrappy team actually pulling off a big upset.

Series hero

Here’s a hypothesis: Nathan MacKinnon’s dominant season slipped under the radar because of how insane Connor McDavid has been, and also because injuries diluted his numbers a bit. Scoring 111 points in 71 games would translate to about 128 over a full season. MacKinnon’s 1.56 points per game ranked third in 2022-23, only trailing the paces of Connor McDavid (an absurd 1.87) and Leon Draisaitl (1.60). Breaking down the strong defensive structure of the Kraken could be a nice way for MacKinnon to remind people that he’s still a top-five player in the NHL.

The Fernando Pisani Trophy (Unsung hero)

Sorting through the pile of mistakes Ron Hextall made during his bumbling run as Penguins GM, opting for depth-killing options instead of keeping Evan Rodrigues really typifies that era of errors. He’s long been an analytics darling who’s shown some ability to rise up in the lineup when injuries and opportunities dictate such moves. Look at his career and you’ll notice the sort of shooting percentage numbers that straddle the line between bad luck and simply lacking that extra finishing touch. In the compressed setting of a playoff series and postseason in general, those bounces sometimes happen in quick succession, so don’t be surprised if casual fans end up asking, “Hey, where did the Avs get this Rodrigues from?”

Prediction

Avalanche in six games.