Yahoo Sports NHL Sour Rankings: Chicago, San Jose And Nashville Hold Top Draft Lottery Odds
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Every team in the NHL has surpassed the midway point in the season and the haves and have nots are beginning to show their true colors. The bottom of the standings are more clear than they’ve been at any point this season as teams like the Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks, Nashville Predators and Buffalo Sabres all spiral toward the bottom of the league with very little hope of a rebound.
With the new lottery rules installed in 2021, teams will be restricted from moving up more than 10 spots if they win one of the lottery draws, and teams cannot win the lottery more than twice in a five-year period. Wins in the lottery prior to 2022 will not be counted toward this total. This boosts the odds of picking first overall for the worst team in the NHL because if a team beyond the 11th worst wins the lottery, they can’t move up more than those 10 spots.
The 2025 NHL draft is an interesting one as there hasn’t been a locked-in top player all year. This isn’t a draft with a player like Auston Matthews, Connor Bedard or Macklin Celebrini locked into the top spot. It’s a bit more wide open with four players seemingly garnering attention at No. 1 overall.
Matthew Schaefer is the lone defenseman in the group, bringing electric playmaking and cerebral play at both ends of the ice. He was the best defender for Canada at the world juniors prior to being injured, and his absence was felt. Despite his injury, Schaefer is being put at the top of draft boards more consistently at the halfway mark.
James Hagens is the player that came into the year in the number one spot for many and he’s done nothing but tear it up at Boston College while also helping Team USA win gold at the World Junior Championship. The creative center brings high-octane offense to the table that teams will love.
Michael Misa is absolutely ripping it up at the OHL level. He leads the entire CHL in goals and sits second in CHL point scoring. His intelligence and cerebral approach to the game have been impressive from start to finish and he’s looking more like the Execeptional Status player he was when he came into the league after a bit of a slow year last season while dealing with injuries.
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The final member of the quartet has begun to fall out of the race for first a bit but the combination of power and skill that Porter Martone brings to the game has NHL scouts salivating at getting a player potentially in the mold of a Matthew Tkachuk. Martone leads the OHL in points per game, just narrowly beating out Misa.
All four of those players bring unique and valuable skill sets to their teams. NHL teams will be excited to add any of those four players but there is a group behind them with names like Carter Bear, Victor Eklund, Jackson Smith and Roger McQueen that has NHL teams excited as well.
In this edition of the NHL Sour Rankings, let's take a look at each team and their odds of winning first overall and which player among the ‘Big Four’ they could be targeting with the first overall pick should they win it. Each team’s odds of winning the first overall pick are in parenthesis next to them.
Chicago Blackhawks (25.5 percent)
14-28-3, 31 pts, .344 P%
The Hawks need a lot, but adding a No. 1 defenseman like Matthew Schaefer could be exactly what they need to pair with some of their high-octane forwards like Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar and Oliver Moore. Having Schaefer in the system would take a lot of pressure off Kevin Korchinski (7th overall, 2022) and Artyom Levshunov (2nd overall, 2024).
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San Jose Sharks (13.5 percent)
14-27-6, 34 points, .362 P%
Yet another team with a need for a true top-pair defender, the Sharks and Schaefer would be a perfect fit. They have Sam Dickinson (11th overall, 2024) but their defense pipeline isn’t all that strong beyond that. They have some interesting names but no surefire studs and Schaefer would change that.
Nashville Predators (11.5 percent)
15-22-7, 37 points, .420 P%
The Nashville Predators were never supposed to be here but they can take advantage of what could (and should be) a one-year dip for the team by adding a future number one center. They have long been in search of a true number one and they could have the choice between Hagens and Misa. Their choice would likely come down to the style of player they’d prefer between the two.
Buffalo Sabres (9.5 percent)
17-23-5, 39 points, .433 P%
This was supposed to be a year of growth but the Sabres are once again in the basement and winning another first-overall pick would mean that they can hopefully find the player that helps get them out of the basement in the not-so-distant future. They have a loaded left side on defense and they need a dynamic offenisve element so Hagens would be an excellent fit, giving them a centerpiece down the middle that could help slot everyone into more appropriate lineup spots.
Seattle Kraken (8.5 percent)
19-24-3, 41 points, .446 P%
The Kraken have drafted some very good players but they don’t seem to have ‘The Guy’ just yet. Matty Beniers is a very solid player and Shane Wright is starting to emerge as a solid piece in the lineup but finding their true No. 1 center would be ideal. Misa brings the two-way game that they value and the goal-scoring that they need so it would be a match made in heaven for the Kraken. He’s mature and steady while bringing the offense that they need.
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New York Islander (7.5 percent)
17-20-7, 41 points, .466 P%
The Islanders' prospect pool is barren so they could use help just about everywhere. This is the first team that could truly use just about any of the four but if Lou Lamoriello is still in charge, it wouldn’t be shocking to see the debate come down to the steady two-way center in Misa and the power forward who could score the lights out in Martone.
Anaheim Ducks (6.5 percent)
18-21-6, 42 points, .467 P%
The Ducks have added a boatload of talent over the last few years and they have young talent coming or already in the NHL at just about every position. They’ve always leaned towards the players with size and strength so Martone makes a lot of sense here with shades of the Mason McTavish pick. Adding Schaefer would give them a top-pair defender who can do it all and help take the pressure off Pavel Mintyukov and Olen Zellweger to be more than what they’re capable of.
Pittsburgh Penguins (6.0 percent)
19-20-8, 46 points, .489 P%
How amazing would it be for the Penguins to get the first-overall pick, add Misa to the lineup and allow him to learn under Sidney Crosby, a player he’s been stylistically compared to several times? Hagens, Schaefer, and Martone would all immediately become the team’s top prospects but Misa would give them an apprentice for Crosby to take under his wing.
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Utah Hockey Club (5.0 percent)
18-19-7, 43 points, .489 P%
Utah has tended to draft players with size. While Schaefer and Misa aren’t small, Martone is right up Utah’s alley. Size, power and skill are all things he brings to the table and he can play with the kind of jam they want from their guys. Martone on a line with Keller and Cooley over the next decade would be pretty fun.
Philadelphia Flyers (3.5 percent)
20-20-6, 46 points, .500 P%
The Flyers could use a No. 1 center of the future. Jett Luchanko, who stuck with the team out of training camp before being sent back to the OHL, is a very solid player but he profiles as a middle-six guy. With Matvei Michkov as the centerpiece of the offensive attack for the foreseeable future, adding a playmaking center would be a dream come true. Hagens' creativity and passing would fit perfectly with the young Russian sniper.
New York Rangers (3.0 percent)
21-20-3, 45 points, .511,
Who is to say that the Rangers even have this pick come the trade deadline because no one really seems to know what this team is doing, but if they were to get the first-overall pick, they could go in a number of directions. Do they go with Schaefer, who would be the heir apparent to Adam Fox as the team’s No. 1 defender, or could they go with Hagens to pair with his Boston College linemate and NYR prospects Gabriel Perreault in the coming years? Maybe they opt for the size and truculence that Martone could bring or the complete center in Misa? The odds are slim that they win the top pick but it would be interesting nonetheless if they did.
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