Shesterkin shining at historical levels for Rangers

Something utterly bizarre happened during the Wednesday slate in the NHL: Igor Shesterkin, for a moment, looked vulnerable.

The St. Louis Blues managed to strike three times on three shots in two minutes and 14 seconds versus the presumed Vezina Trophy winner in the final moments of the second period to turn a deficit into a sudden advantage in a matchup the New York Rangers had control of with their star netminder between the pipes.

It was the sort of game-changing sequence that almost always determines the result of the game.

But Shesterkin was perfect in those other 57-plus minutes, and the Rangers won anyway.

And it was the sort of game-changing sequence that would normally crater a netminder's numbers.

Shesterkin, however, has been performing at beyond a historical level for too long for it to even cause a ripple.

I took a cursory look at Shesterkin's season earlier this week when considering Auston Matthews' Hart Trophy prospects for his brilliant campaign with the Toronto Maple Leafs. There's an argument that, despite having longer odds, Shesterkin has the strongest case when put up against Matthews' when considered impact and contribution to meaningful success. The knock for me was his usage — to transcend an award category, it feels like a netminder must not just be handling a majority share of the workload, but an extreme amount.

But what could counter that point is the presence of historical performance and numbers.

And Shesterkin's authoring those.

Incredibly, the three-goal blemish versus the Blues saw Shesterkin's raw all-situations save percentage drop just one point to .940 on the season.

If maintained over the next 28 games or roughly 20 starts given the Rangers' willingness to involve backup Alexandar Georgiev, Shesterkin will author the second-best single-season save percentage in the 100-plus-year history of the NHL.

Only Jacques Plante with the Toronto Maple Leafs in 1970-71 stopped a greater percentage of the rubber fired in his direction over an adequately-sized sample.

If you're willing to concede that the position is much more demanding now, it's not a stretch to argue that Shesterkin's deep into the path toward the greatest statistical season ever, and a closer look into Shesterkin's profile reveals an even more impressive footnote.

Carey Price has arguably had the single-best season by a netminder in the last decade or so, and is the only backstop — or non-forward — to win the Hart Trophy since the NHL lockout in 2004-05. Price finished that legendary 2015 season with 44 wins, nine shutouts and a .933 save percentage.

Price also authored a 0.55 Goals Saved Above Average per 60 minutes, which means that he was roughly a half goal better than the average performance per game while winning the Hart and Vezina trophies for the Canadiens that season. His total GSAA was 36.71, meaning he saved nearly 37 goals more than the average netminder would given the same conditions based on shot quality.

Seven years later, Shesterkin is having a best-ever season based on relative shot quality, though it should be noted that this statistic has only been used over the last decade-plus. He's been slightly more than a full goal better than the average compared to roughly the half goal from Price in 2015.

He's also a healthy percentage up on the highest GSAA rate posted since Price's legendary season with Ben Bishop hitting a 0.73 mark in 2018-19.

In addition, Shesterkin's total 34.58 GSAA in 35 appearances is nearly greater than the number of goals Price prevented above average in 66 outings in 2014-15, meaning Shesterkin would have to revert to the average standard, or only slightly improved on it, to not soar past Price based on this metric of relative total performance.

Usage will dock Shesterkin as I mentioned, but voters may have to decide by the end of the season what the single-best performance by a starting goaltender in the modern era (and perhaps beyond) is worth in the debate over the league's most valuable player.

In those terms, the case for Shesterkin may be undeniable.

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