NHL playoffs: 10 takeaways from Leafs-Lightning heading into Game 3

Despite Tampa Bay thumping Toronto in Game 1 before Toronto returned the favor in Game 2, the second consecutive installment of Leafs-Lightning has been a much better series so far than the lopsided scores would indicate.

As things shift to Tampa Bay, here are 10 takeaways from the opening two games that may have some predictive value as we head deeper into the series.

John Tavares' 5-on-5 woes may be over

John Tavares recorded his first-ever playoff hat trick in Game 2, and it’s a likely indication that his prolonged struggles at 5-on-5 are over. During his final 20 games of the regular season, Tavares recorded just one goal and six points at 5-on-5 while scoring at a three percent shooting clip. Although he was the team’s most proficient scorer on the power play, Tavares’ contributions at 5-on-5 dried up and if the theory goes that it’s much more difficult to rely upon power-play offense in the postseason, this was a cause for concern.

No longer. Tavares, paired primarily with William Nylander through the first two games, exploded for two goals at 5-on-5 in Game 2, then capped off his hat-trick on the man advantage. His skating looks more explosive and it certainly reinforces the idea that he’s most optimally deployed at center. Tavares is more than capable of playing the wing, and his frame and hockey intelligence allow him to anticipate plays and seal off the wall better than most true wingers. He can still be deployed there in a moment’s notice — a luxury for Sheldon Keefe, not a feature.

Michael Bunting’s suspension (more on this later) has changed the complexion of the series and it looks like Tavares will be stapled to Nylander and Alexander Kerfoot for the foreseeable future. Through two games, largely on the backing of a standout Game 2, Tavares ranks second among the Maple Leafs in individual expected goals. He’s third in Corsi — Nylander and O’Reilly, his linemates from Game 1, are first and second, respectively — and he’s winning 66 percent of his faceoffs, which drops to 63 percent in all situations.

You don’t need the charts to see Tavares’ impact on the game. He’s not the robot he’s made out to be; he showed some uncharacteristic, visceral passion upon scoring. He basked in the hats raining down from Scotiabank Arena after his Game 2 trick, and now his impact at 5-on-5 could help the Maple Leafs win a game — hell, maybe both — on the road as the series turns to Amalie Arena.

Corey Perry has been the Lightning’s most effective player

On a team where Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos reside, it’s somewhat unbelievable Corey Perry has been the Lightning’s best player through two games. Perry is a notable Maple Leafs killer and he’s certainly being cast as the main enemy — I mean, sure, the crowd chirped Andrei Vasilevskiy thoroughly in Game 2, but there’s genuine contempt and bile spewed towards Perry, who remains completely unfazed.

Perry set up Pierre-Edouard Bellemare’s opening goal 78 seconds into Game 1 as the Lightning dominated the Maple Leafs from the outset. It wasn’t a one-off as Perry scored Tampa Bay’s fifth goal, effectively killing any hopes of a comeback, finishing with a goal, two assists, and a game-high seven shots while drawing two penalties. Perry, alongside Bellemare and Pat Maroon, recorded an 82 percent share of the expected goals as line at 5-on-5, while the Lightning controlled 76.1 percent of the expected goals when Perry was on the ice. He did this in 13 minutes, a remarkable outcome.

As we noted in a piece earlier this week, Perry used to be one of the best players in the NHL with a decorated resume, but he no longer fills that role. Although Tampa Bay largely capitulated against Toronto in Game 2, Perry led the Lightning in shots and individual expected goals, while finishing with a team-high 61 percent share of the expected goals and two drawn penalties. Throwing away the charts, Perry was one of the few players who showed up.

In low-volume minutes, Perry is balling out for the Lightning while agitating the Maple Leafs. Expect the Lightning to push the series to seven games if Perry remains in vintage form.

Will Morgan Rielly's good form hold up?

Speaking of vintage form, Morgan Rielly authored his best game of his career in Game 2, with four primary assists, tying a franchise postseason record for points by a defenseman. Rielly was an excellent facilitator, he made clean zone exits and he allowed Luke Schenn to operate at his best — a physical presence with an emphasis on shot suppression.

“Just his impact in all areas and how he uses his speed to be so hard to handle, whether it was on the breakouts, through the neutral zone and attacking middle ice or being aggressive in the offensive zone and finding the open man, which he did tonight. It was just an all-world performance,” Tavares said of Rielly after Game 2.

Rielly has been erratic all season, drawing criticisms that bordered on unfair at times. It’s unreasonable to expect him to play at the level he did in Game 2, but if he can return to playing like a top-pair option, the Maple Leafs are decidedly pulling ahead, especially with Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak sidelined due to injury.

Maple Leafs need to limit Lightning’s power-play opportunities

Maple Leafs head coach Sheldon Keefe effectively said there was no predictive value in 5-on-5 play during Game 1, given the sheer number of penalties. Toronto knew its primary point of emphasis in Game 2 was to stay out of the box, as Tampa Bay scored four times in eight power play opportunities, which led to the onslaught in the opener.

It feels bonkers to write but Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Steven Stamkos have largely been rendered ineffective at 5-on-5. On the man advantage, however, it’s an entirely different equation. Kucherov’s Game 1 goal would’ve beat Dominik Hasek in his prime, while 51-goal scorer Point notched both of his tallies with the man advantage. Toronto and Tampa Bay sported identical power play percentages until the final week of the regular season, but the Maple Leafs were superior to the Lightning at 5-on-5 this year.

Kucherov, Point and Stamkos are too good to be suppressed this long at 5-on-5, and they’re likely not going to lose possession in consecutive games, but if the Maple Leafs are to win this series, they have to stay out of the box. Giving Tampa Bay’s superstar trio even an inch to operate is a recipe for disaster.

Cooper outcoached Keefe in Game 1, Keefe outcoached Cooper in Game 2

Lightning head coach Jon Cooper wants you to simultaneously believe that his squad are massive underdogs while blanching at suggestions that the Maple Leafs have superior depth at center. During Game 1, Keefe squandered last change by trying to match Cooper’s lines, rather than putting his best players into the game when the game required it. Advantage, Cooper.

Keefe responded in Game 2 by starting Calle Jarnkrok, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner against Brandon Hagel, Anthony Cirelli and Alex Killorn. The proactive approach paid dividends immediately. Marner earned a tripping penalty 40 seconds into the game, then scored seven seconds later. Ilya Samsonov made a number of great saves to keep the game balanced, before Tavares and Nylander added to the first-period bonanza.

Both coaches have flexed through the opening two games. It'll be interesting to see how Cooper uses last change back in Tampa.

Marner has retained his status as the Maple Leafs MVP

Marner was the Maple Leafs’ MVP this season and he’s retained this status through two games. Although he almost certainly has forgotten about it, Marner registered assists on all three Maple Leafs goals in Game 1 and was one of the few players who could be excused for the poor result.

As we wrote earlier, Marner’s magical minute changed the complexion of Game 2 and perhaps the series at-large. After an uncharacteristically poor defensive game in Game 1, Marner once again took control of the team’s penalty kill and made it impossible for the Lightning to cleanly enter the zone.

Marner also scored twice in Game 2, and the fact that that performance has become a footnote lost in the shuffle of Toronto’s resounding victory is a testament to his talent. It’s unfortunate, but one of the hallmarks of greatness is people taking for granted the routine brilliance displayed every night. Marner doesn’t care about individual accolades, he only wants a Stanley Cup. One series at a time, but Marner is tied for the NHL lead with six points through two games. It’s time to kill the narrative about Playoff Marner. He's been excellent.

Jarnkrok has to be the permanent fixture on the Matthews-Marner line

Calle Jarnkrok is simply the best option to play alongside Matthews and Marner. He retrieves pucks, he is keenly aware of his linemates and how to feed them, while showing secondary scoring prowess. During a March dry spell, Jarnkrok led the Maple Leafs in goals at 5-on-5 and even when Michael Bunting returns from suspension, he’s the superior option.

Here’s how each player fared alongside Matthews-Marner during the regular season:

• 10 games, 77:13 with Jarnkrok-Matthews-Marner: four goals for, three against, 45 shots for, 30 against, 57.6 xGF, 56.4 CF at 5-on-5 via Natural Stat Trick.

• 28 games, 262:37 with Bunting-Matthews-Marner: 12 goals for, 10 against, 131 shots for, 127 against, 56.1 xGF, 55.5 CF at 5-on-5 via NST.

Jarnkrok performed better in a smaller body of work during the latter half of the regular season with Mathews and Marner. If we’re using the March 1-present cutoff line as we did with Tavares, both players posted an identical 52.97 expected goals for percentage.

There’s no turning back now for Jarnkrok, barring injury. Bunting may have to grin and bear the consequences of his suspension, which could mean a demotion to the third line, or being used as the 13th forward.

Andrei Vasilevskiy is bound to regress to the mean

This has been a subpar year for Vasilevskiy, which is to say he’s been no worse than the seventh-best goaltender in the NHL this season. He’s one of the best playoff performers of his generation and he’s certainly bound for some positive regression.

Cooper thought the notion of pulling Vasilevskiy in Game 2 was ridiculous and it’s worth remembering that until last year’s Eastern Conference Final where he dropped consecutive games to the Rangers, Vasilevskiy won 17 consecutive playoff games following a loss.

Goals saved above expected is a cumulative metric, so it may defeat the purpose by using it in a small sample, but Vasilevskiy has allowed exactly one goal more than expected. It’s far from his best work so far, and he’s the most dangerous goalie in the playoffs until proven otherwise. Cooper has full faith in Vasilevskiy, to the point where he wouldn’t take him out while Scotiabank Arena rained derisive VASY chants throughout the game. Expect a better showing from the NHL’s marquee goaltender.

Ryan O’Reilly is doing all the right things and is a safety valve for Matthew Knies

Matthew Knies looked better than expected in his playoff debut. It wasn’t flawless — Knies took two penalties — but he was more than accountable after the game and said he was unhappy with the mistakes he made.

Knies shouldn’t be too hard on himself, however. In tandem with Ryan O’Reilly and Noel Acciari, Toronto controlled 88.6 percent of the expected goals at 5-on-5 when they were on the ice. Knies also nearly pulled off a spectacular goal, wedging his way through the Lightning defense before losing the handle at the final second. He skates really well, can seal off the boards and O’Reilly is the requisite safety valve that will allow the game to slow down for Knies.

O’Reilly has been quietly dominant for the Maple Leafs and pairing Knies, a 20-year-old prospect bursting with skill and inventiveness, with a former Conn Smythe Trophy winner known for his leadership and two-way excellence is a brilliant move by Keefe. As we discussed earlier, the lines ought to remain the same, and Knies-O’Reilly-Acciari has scoring punch, toughness and high-end skill — all the elements required to beat the three-time conference champions.

Can the Lightning overcome prolonged absences from Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak?

Hedman left Game 1 with a new, undisclosed injury and Jon Cooper listed him as a game-time decision for Game 2 before the 2020 Conn Smythe Trophy winner was ultimately ruled out. Cernak was the recipient of Bunting’s hit to the head and stayed down for several minutes before missing the rest of Game 1 and all of Game 2.

Cooper has emphasized that his group has withstood injuries to superstars like Hedman and valuable, underrated pieces like Cernak in previous runs to Cup victories and didn’t use the former’s absence as an excuse for the Game 2 loss.

“This had nothing to do with Victor Hedman being out of the game,” Cooper said post-game. “We've won games in this league without Victor Hedman. I could sit here and go through 100 years of clichés, which one do you want? In the end, did we play hard enough to win? Probably not.”

Hedman didn’t play to his Hall-of-Fame standards during the regular season, posting a sub-50 percent share of the expected goals at 5-on-5, while his underlying numbers were some of the worst of his career. But this perhaps misses the point: Hedman and Cernak log massive, high-impact minutes for the Lightning — they certainly did during the team’s Cup victories — and Tampa Bay’s defense couldn’t withstand Toronto’s attack without their second- and third-best defensemen in Game 2. (Yes, Mikhail Sergachev is their best defender now.)

Sergachev can’t do it alone, however. He’s having the best year of his career, but Darren Raddysh and Nick Perbix can’t be asked to reasonably replicate Hedman and Cernak’s impact. A clean bill of health for both defenders is the Lightning’s biggest key to stealing the momentum — which exists on a pendulum, according to Cooper — back from the Maple Leafs.