Bruins look like they've got all they can handle with Panthers offense

When the Boston Bruins drew the Florida Panthers in the first round of the NHL playoffs, the matchup didn't scream upset.

After all, Boston was coming off a historic 65-12-5 season, where they scored the second-most goals in the NHL while allowing 36 fewer markers than any other team. The offense was fueled by proven stars and the defense was backed by Linus Ullmark, who is almost guaranteed to win the Vezina Trophy.

Putting that kind of squad up against a Panthers team that just scraped together a 92-point campaign didn't seem like a recipe for a long, tight, series. In Game 1 Florida went down in a tame 3-1 contest that reaffirmed the idea that Boston was in for a low-stress jaunt to four wins.

That outcome is still on the table as the Bruins are undoubtedly good enough to rattle off three straight wins, but the Panthers' 6-3 Game 2 victory recontextualized this battle.

One win doesn't suddenly make Florida a heavyweight, but the underdog Panthers have demonstrated an ability to challenge Boston's greatest strength: its ability to keep the puck out of its own net.

Bolstered by Ullmark's excellence, very few teams have been able to bulge the twine with any consistency against the Bruins, but the Panthers are an exception to that rule.

In four regular season matchups with Boston, Florida averaged 3.75 goals per game — unsurprisingly a number that no other team matched.

To give that number a little more context, Boston allowed just 2.04 goals in games not against Florida. The Panthers managed at least three goals in each of their matchups against the Bruins, the rest of the league scored two or fewer two-thirds of the time.

That sample size is small enough to be written off as a fluke, but Florida's ability to drive the play at 5-on-5 seems to play a big role in its offensive success against Boston. There's no doubt it played a significant role in its Game 2 win.

Again, that looks like a statistical anomaly, but it's backed up by underlying data. In Game 2, the Panthers had more than their fare share of high-danger chances (53.33%) and expected goals (65.26%) at even strength.

That type of result isn't altogether unexpected as Florida outpaced Boston in most even-strength possession metrics during the regular season. Here's a rundown of how the two teams fared with NHL ranks in brackets:

That's a lot of data, but the upshot is that Florida is at least as good as the Bruins at driving play, probably better. This is a team that managed more shots on net (36.8/game) than any other NHL team.

We now have a six-game sample of games between these two clubs in the regular season and playoffs, and the Panthers have been the stronger side at even strength.

This trend hardly spells doom for the Bruins, who have been without captain Patrice Bergeron through two games, and it's not as if they are being caved in. But the heavy underdog they're facing is looking strong in the game's most common condition.

Given the gap between the Bruins' and Panthers' records, it would've been fair to expect the Bruins to dominate this series in every facet of the game. Instead, their route to victory likely involves superior goaltending and special teams play.

That isn't out of Boston's reach by any means, but Florida is looking like a team ready to give them a series.