NHL Playoff Power Rankings: The 16 co-favorites to win the Stanley Cup

Each year we issue our playoff power rankings, listing the teams in order of their chances to win the Stanley Cup. Usually we go 1 through 16. This time we’re going 1(a) through 1(p).

We’re exaggerating to make a point, but not much. The Calgary Flames don’t have the same chance to win the Cup as the New York Rangers. But this is the tightest the field has been in the modern era.

Only 16 points separated the 16 teams in the regular season. The gap hasn’t been narrower since 1964-65, when the NHL had six teams, four made the playoffs and Gary Bettman was just a kid, not yet the commissioner who fought for the salary cap.

Not only that, but the winners of three of the past four Cups – the Boston Bruins (2011) and Los Angeles Kings (2012 and 2014) – are 1(q) and 1(r). They’re out.

There is no favorite. Good luck with your bracket.

“Sixteen teams make it,” said St. Louis Blues general manager Doug Armstrong. “I wouldn’t say I’d be shocked if any of those teams won.”

1(a). New York Rangers

The Rangers went to the Cup final last season and posted the best record in the league this season. They have proven they can win one-goal games and seven-game series because of goaltender Henrik Lundqvist. Though Lundqvist sat out much of February and March with an injury, it was a blessing in disguise. The team proved it could play well without him. He rested for the playoffs. He came back with enough time to return to form. The Rangers are deep and fast and can keep opponents on their heels, and now they have a healthy, productive Rick Nash.

1(b). St. Louis Blues

The Blues are 4-12 in their last 16 playoff games and have blown 2-0 series leads in the first round in back-to-back years. They have a lot to prove, but they have the ability to do it. Long one of the NHL’s best possession and defensive teams, they now have more firepower up front. They added Jori Lehtera and Paul Stastny, and Jaden Schwartz and Vladimir Tarasenko have matured and improved. The Blues looked good down the stretch. The biggest question mark is in goal: Can Brian Elliott or Jake Allen get it done?

1(c). Tampa Bay Lightning

This is not the same team that was swept in the first round by the Montreal Canadiens a year ago. It’s better. It’s deeper, though that depth is being tested by injuries on the back end. Goaltender Ben Bishop is healthy. The Bolts were the highest-scoring team in the NHL in the regular season despite a sputtering power play, and they fared well against their fellow playoff teams in the Atlantic – 4-0-0 against the Habs, 3-1-0 against the Detroit Red Wings, 2-0-2 against the Ottawa Senators. One concern: Some key players have little to no playoff experience. Bishop has played only 59 postseason minutes as a pro, all for the AHL’s Peoria Rivermen.

1(d). Chicago Blackhawks

The Blackhawks won the Cup in 2010. They kept their core and rebuilt their supporting cast after a salary-cap crunch, and they won the Cup again in ’13 and went to Game 7 of the Western Conference final last year. But they’re older and slower. They struggled to score after Patrick Kane suffered a broken collarbone, and though he has been cleared to return, it remains to be seen how well he will be able to play. The acquisitions they made at the trade deadline – Antoine Vermette, Kimmo Timonen and Andrew Desjardins – haven’t made an impact yet.

1(e). Minnesota Wild

The Wild were good before Devan Dubnyk arrived. The skaters were structured. They ranked among the league leaders in shots against. The problem was that they weren’t getting good goaltending, and over time, that affected their overall game. When Dubnyk arrived, he not only stopped the puck, he stopped the vicious cycle. They started playing with confidence and went on a 28-9-3 run, the best record in the NHL from Jan. 15 through the end of the regular season. Dubnyk started 38 straight games. How long can he and the Wild keep it up?

1(f). Anaheim Ducks

Coach Bruce Boudreau has never been past the second round. The Ducks haven’t been past the second round since winning the Cup in 2007. They have a chance to break through with a one-two punch at center in Ryan Getzlaf and Ryan Kesler and a defense that was bolstered at the trade deadline. L.A. isn’t in the way, thanks partly to the Ducks, who went 4-0-1 against them this season. But the Ducks still don’t have a No. 1 defenseman, still have uncertainty in goal and still give up too many goals sometimes.

1(g). Montreal Canadiens

Goaltender Carey Price has played so well he likely will win the Hart Trophy as the NHL’s most valuable player, but that’s both good and bad news. Why was he so valuable? The Canadiens ranked first in goals-against average (2.24) despite ranking 21st in shots against (30.1) in the regular season. They finished second in points (110) despite finishing 20th in goals per game (2.61). More bad news: Leading scorer Max Pacioretty is coming off an injury, and the matchups aren’t good. The Habs struggled against the Senators, their first-round opponent, and the Lightning, a possible second-round opponent.

1(h). Nashville Predators

The Predators have an outstanding goaltender in Pekka Rinne and one of the best defense corps in the league, anchored by Shea Weber and Roman Josi. They have a new up-tempo style under new coach Peter Laviolette. But as well as Mike Ribeiro has played this season, can he match up against Jonathan Toews and other elite centermen? And can the Preds get back to playing like they did earlier this season? They were 41-13-7, then went 6-12-3.

1(i). Washington Capitals

The Capitals are back in the playoffs with a new general manager in Brian MacLellan, a new coach in Barry Trotz and some new players. They have the NHL’s best goal-scorer in Alex Ovechkin and the league’s best power play. They have a skilled defense and a workhorse goaltender in Braden Holtby. A big question seems to be whether Holtby can go four rounds after playing 72 games in the regular season, but first things first. The Caps haven’t been past the second round since 1998.

1(j). Ottawa Senators

Not only did the Senators go on a 23-4-3 run to make the playoffs, they drew the Canadiens in the first round. They beat them in five games two years ago. They beat them in their last three meetings this season by a combined score of 13-5 – before they even got rolling. The first two came before this streak, and the third was near the beginning. It was the first NHL start for goaltender Andrew Hammond, a.k.a. ‘The Hamburglar,’ the 27-year-old rookie who came out of nowhere to go 20-1-2 with a 1.79 GAA and .941 save percentage. Can the Sens beat the Habs? Absolutely. Can they win four rounds? It’s hard to envision that. Then again, it was hard to envision this.

1(k). Winnipeg Jets

The Jets are a trendy pick to go deep for good reason. They play with structure. They possess the puck. They have a big, strong defense. They will have an incredible home atmosphere, with Winnipeg fans witnessing NHL playoff hockey for the first time since the original Jets left for Phoenix in 1996. The problem is, they also take too many penalties, and as hot as goaltender Ondrej Pavelec was down the stretch, he is streaky at best and has never played in an NHL playoff game. Can he or rookie Michael Hutchinson go on a Cup run?

1(l). Vancouver Canucks

The Canucks have traveled under the radar this season, returning to the playoffs under low-key coach Willie Desjardins, and now they have a chance to surprise some people. Though they are still led by the Sedin twins – Daniel and Henrik – they have a balanced offense. The defense has gotten healthy at the right time. But goaltender Ryan Miller just came back from a knee injury in the regular-season finale, and Eddie Lack was up and down in his absence.

1(m). New York Islanders

Nassau Coliseum will rock for its last playoff run, but it will be short unless the Islanders figure out some things. They went 4-7-3 down the stretch. They’re entering the first round against Washington without Travis Hamonic, who often matched up against Alex Ovechkin in the regular season and apparently will miss at least Game 1 with an injury. They’re facing the NHL’s best power play with one of the NHL’s worst penalty kills. Jaroslav Halak, once a playoff hero for Montreal, needs to do what the Isles got him to do.

1(n). Pittsburgh Penguins

The Penguins blew a 3-1 series lead to the Rangers last year. They struggled against the Rangers this season with a shootout win, two lopsided losses and an overtime loss. Now they face the Rangers weakened by injuries. Most notably, Evgeni Malkin is hobbling and Kris Letang is out entirely. It’s going to be hard enough to win the first round, let alone the Cup. Marc-Andre Fleury had had a strong season under new goalie coach Mike Bales. Well, now he has an opportunity to carry the team and put playoff questions behind him.

1(o). Detroit Red Wings

Jimmy Howard was a top-flight goaltender, then suffered a groin injury and wasn’t the same. The Wings were 36-15-11, then went 7-10-3 down the stretch. So now coach Mike Babcock, his contract about to expire, needs to show why he deserves the big bucks about to come his way. He has already decided to start Petr Mrazek in Game 1 against Tampa Bay. Mrazek, a 23-year-old rookie, has been brilliant and bad at times. He has zero NHL playoff experience. But he shut out the Lightning in the teams’ last meeting on March 28, and he won a Calder Cup with the AHL’s Grand Rapids Griffins in 2013.

1(p). Calgary Flames

The Flames are an inexperienced, poor possession team with a question mark in goal. They don’t have their captain or MVP, defenseman Mark Giordano, because of injury. But what they do have is a strong work ethic and belief in themselves. This is a team that consistently came back in games during the regular season and went 12-6-3 after Giordano went down. This is a team with a 5-foot-9 rookie, Johnny Gaudreau, who put up 24 goals and 64 points. Don’t tell them the odds.

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