NHL offseason: Why offer sheets are so rare, DeBrincat deal accelerates 'Yzerplan'

We are officially in the dog days of summer, NHL fans.

Luckily, there was a trade of significance to discuss, free agents still on the board and restricted free agents figuring out their next steps. Let's dive in.

DeBrincat trade working wonders for the Blackhawks

Last summer, the rebuilding Chicago Blackhawks traded a then 24-year-old Alex DeBrincat for the seventh overall pick, the 39th overall pick and a third round pick in the 2024 draft. At the time, he was coming off a career-high 78-point season and scored 41 goals for the second time in his career, but had only a year remaining on his contract.

It seemed slightly counterintuitive at the time; a bad team trading a quality young player away for further futures. Why trade a good young player for a lottery ticket, hoping that the lottery ticket becomes as good as the young player you are trading away right this second? But a year later, it's already looking like a franchise-altering type of trade. There is little doubt that DeBrincat is a player of quality and removing him from the lineup for future assets contributed to making them worse, which culminated in them winning the draft lottery and selecting Connor Bedard.

Their seventh overall selection in 2022, Kevin Korchinski, jumped from 0.97 points per game in his draft year, to 1.35 points per game in his draft plus one year — as a defenseman. By all accounts, he is building the pedigree of a future impact player and will be cost controlled for years to come. Meanwhile, DeBrincat had a down year production-wise, forced his way out of Ottawa to his hometown Detroit Red Wings and signed a four year deal with a $8.75 million cap hit, far below the $9 million qualifying offer that the Blackhawks never had interest in paying, knowing that it would hurt any leverage they possibly had with his restricted free agent status.

In return, Ottawa received Dominik Kubalik — who these very Blackhawks actively cut bait with just a season ago and walked to free agency — as well as Donovan Sebrango, a conditional first round pick in the 2024 draft and fourth round pick in the 2024 draft. It's a masterstroke from the Blackhawks in terms of reading the situation correctly, selling at the right time, and if they hit on the picks they received, they will be making out like absolute bandits.

Acceleration of the "Yzerplan"

The team that acquired DeBrincat, the Red Wings, continued what has been a busy offseason. This is their second straight summer being active players on the market. Last summer, they:

• Signed Ben Chiarot to a four-year, $19 million contract

• Signed Andrew Copp to a five-year, $28.125 million contract

• Signed David Perron to a two-year, $9.5 million contract

• Signed Dominik Kubalik to a two-year, $5 million contract

• Signed Olli Maatta to a one-year contract (which they have since extended for two more seasons)

• Acquired Ville Husso and signed him to a three-year, $14.25 million contract

For all their troubles, the Red Wings jumped from 74 points the season prior, to 80 points last season. Their goal differential, though, dropped from -82 to -39; a sizeable and noteworthy difference.

When general manager Steve Yzerman sold at the deadline, he was asked if he regretted the summer splurge, and he said he didn't. "The moves I made last year, really, it was like, I don’t want to get beat 10-0 every night, OK? We’re building, we’re building, we’re going to be patient. ... I just felt like where we’re at, in free agency last year, we need to get some players that are going to help our (younger) players evolve. I don’t want to be terrible forever. What happens? Your good players start to go backwards and regress, and I didn’t want that for our guys."

They have followed that summer up with another big one. Beyond acquiring DeBrincat, Yzerman has:

• Signed JT Compher to a five-year, $25.5 million contract

• Signed Justin Holl to a three-year, $10.2 million contract

• Acquired and signed Klim Kostin to a two-year, $4 million contract

• Signed Daniel Sprong to a one-year, $2 million contract

• Signed Shayne Gostisbehere to a one-year, $4.125 million contract

• Signed Christian Fischer to a one-year, $1.125 million contract

It’s understandable to want to support your young players with proven, NHL veterans. This is a step beyond that, though. There are veterans that will be in the lineup blocking the paths for younger players to enter the league faster. When you’re one of the most aggressive teams in the offseason for the second straight summer, though, at some point you need to see more than a six point year-over-year improvement.

Why offer sheets are so rare

When the NHL offseason hits the dog days, as it already has, a lot of attention turns to arbitration and the restricted free-agency market. Fans often wonder why teams aren't more aggressive in pursuing RFAs. In the past 10 years, only three players have signed offer sheets:

• Ryan O'Reilly, 2 years, $10 million, signed by the Calgary Flames and matched by the Colorado Avalanche

• Sebastian Aho, 5 years, $42.27 million signed by the Montreal Canadiens and matched by the Carolina Hurricanes

• Jesperi Kotkaniemi, 1 year, $6.1 million signed by the Carolina Hurricanes and not matched by the Montreal Canadiens

There are a number of scenarios to consider here. Only 42 offer sheets have ever been signed since they became a thing starting in 1986. Technically, 18 of those have not been matched but since the introduction of a salary cap in 2005, there have been 10 offer sheets signed and only two have not been matched — the Kotkaniemi one listed above and Dustin Penner with Edmonton which sparked that memorable Brian Burke-Kevin Lowe feud in 2007.

All that to say is, why don’t we see more? The most obvious reason is that the player has to agree to sign the contract in the first place. Unless he is super unhappy in his situation or actively angling to go somewhere (in which case a trade would simply be more likely), what incentive is there to sign somewhere else, unless you are getting way more money than your market value?

For a team to offer that, they have to be willing to give up the inflated price tag that comes with it and in that case you are likely in a situation like the Hurricanes found themselves in when they snagged Kotkaniemi away from Montreal — overpaying a player and offering up notable draft picks in a deal that the jury is still very much out on.

Similarly, the Dustin Penner unmatched offer sheet made him an overpaid player over at least half of the term of the contract he signed and the Ducks drafted Jake Gardiner and Justin Schultz as part of the compensation they got back in return. The best part of the deal for Edmonton might have been that they later flipped Penner for picks of their own and drafted Oscar Klefbom. Ultimately, it’s just a lot of work to sign a player to an offer sheet, there’s no certainty you even acquire him, and you are putting off accomplishing other work while doing that.

There is, however, opportunity cost if you can take advantage of a cash-strapped team, as San Jose did signing Niklas Hjalmarsson to an offer sheet, and as the Blackhawks matched, eating their cap space, they then signed away Antti Niemi. Unless you are willing to strategize something to that effect or way overpay the market, as Darcy Regier once said when the Oilers tried to sign away Thomas Vanek, it's an "exercise in futility."

Most intriguing UFAs remaining

Beyond the RFA market, there are still a number of quality UFAs available who can be acquired for nothing but cash. After the initial run last summer, there were some notable signings weeks after, including Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci returning to Boston (both of whom are still deciding yet again what to do for next season), John Klingberg going to Anaheim, Nazem Kadri going to Calgary, Paul Stastny to Carolina, Phil Kessel to Vegas and Sam Steel signing in Minnesota.

There is potentially a bit more value to be had still, depending on a few factors. Jonathan Toews played to a 23-goal, 48-point pace on a poor team and is one of the best faceoff men in the league. If he is healthy and willing (both of which are up in the air), he can provide all sorts of utility to a contender.

Similar can be said for Patrick Kane at some point pending his hip surgery recovery, as he had six points in seven playoff games for the Rangers even though he was clearly hobbled. If nothing else, he can provide some offense and power-play credibility. Vladimir Tarasenko and Matt Dumba are legitimate contributors still, even if their best days are beyond them.

Noah Gregor is an interesting 24-year-old who just put up 10 goals and 17 points for the San Jose Sharks in 57 games, and Max Comtois was a once-promising top prospect who never quite clicked in Anaheim — two young players who have played on terrible franchises and could benefit from a change of scenery.

One of the most interesting, though, might be Pius Suter. In his three seasons in the NHL, he has scored 14, 15 and 14 goals, clearly establishing himself in that range. He has put up between 24 (a career low that he put up this past season) and 36 points, again, baselining himself as a low-scoring player. Where it gets interesting is two things. One, he is just 27 years old. That means he still has fresh legs and plenty of gas left in the tank. This is a player who is right in the prime age and he's only played in 216 NHL games so there isn’t a ton of mileage on his body.

The second is that he's a center which is a premium position. He has never played on a good team in the league and has hovered just around the 46-47% goals-for mark at 5v5 in his career. At minimum, he is an NHL player that can play center and chip in double-digit goals and he is at a good age. You can never have enough centers in the league and a quick look around the landscape will show you that most teams barely have three credible, legitimate options, and if you sign him for next to nothing, there is only upside to be had.

Is PK efficiency the key to sustained success?

Lots has been made about power-play efficiency increasing, led by the Edmonton Oilers setting a record last season and the percentage of goals scored on power-play attempts being its highest since the 1985-1986 campaign. When power-play efficiency is high, that naturally means that penalty killing efficiency is the exact opposite and in many cases falling off a cliff — fast. We saw teams actively lose games and series in the playoffs because of it (hello, LA Kings).

Some of that is due to the decline in goaltending quality across the league. It might be the scarcest position in the NHL at the moment. How many true franchise goaltenders are there? Andrei Vasilevskiy immediately comes to mind. The Islanders just locked up Ilya Sorokin. Igor Shesterkin is included in that. Jake Oettinger looks like the real deal. Linus Ullmark just had a great season and Juuse Saros has been a stud but it’s a far cry from the era of Dominik Hasek, Patrick Roy, Martin Brodeur, Eddie Belfour and Curtis Joseph, among others, all being in the league at once.

Connor Hellebuyck has been seemingly available all offseason and there has been barely any movement. It’s a difficult position to rely on and project year in and year out.

The second is the overall expertise and strategy. Teams are getting mesmerized by the quality and talent snapping the puck around on power plays and often retreat when teams do that. They become stagnant and sink into a tight box around the hashmarks, which just leaves far too much time and space at the top of the circles for players to walk in and rip shots or feather passes.

Every team in the league should be studying the Carolina Hurricanes. Over the past four seasons they have finished second, first, third and fourth in team penalty-kill efficiency. They haven’t exactly had a stud goalie behind them along the way while doing it, either.

The name of the game is pressure for them. It is high energy and reducing time and space at all times. They challenge the points, they challenge the halfway, they send numbers when the puck is below the goal line. Every faceoff possibility has detailed coverages and executions. It is no fluke when you are consistently among the top of the league and your top defenseman has changed through that time and your goaltending is a carousel.

Coaches are always teaching defense because it is the most straightforward thing to coach — you can’t just teach a player to shoot like Alex Ovechkin. But you can teach a player where to go, how to apply pressure, where to put their stick, and how to react defensively to various situations. With talent increasing throughout the league, penalty killing is becoming a bit of a premium as it can swing games, series and even your season, dramatically. Can teams figure out how to defend better this summer?