NHL Free Agency: Will These Six Eastern Conference Pending UFAs Go Elsewhere?

jason chen

Tue, Dec 31, 2024, 5:44 p.m.·7 min read

Mitch Marner<p>Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images</p> — Mitch Marner
Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images

The NHL salary cap could rise to more than $92 million next season, which should mean higher player salaries as well.

Every penny counts with NHL salaries, but the uncertainty of the upcoming cap increase and the expiry of the current collective bargaining agreement following the 2025-26 season means that all parties have to tread a little more carefully.

After looking at the Western Conference, here’s the latest on the biggest pending UFAs in the Eastern Conference entering the summer of 2025. Salary information is according to PuckPedia.

Mitch Marner, RW, And John Tavares, C, Toronto Maple Leafs

Current cap hits: $10.903 million for Marner, $11 million for Tavares

It’s hard to imagine breaking up the Leafs’ ‘Core Four,’ though another early playoff exit may suggest otherwise.

There is absolutely zero chance – or as close to zero as humanly possible – that the Leafs move either player before or at the trade deadline. They’re far too invaluable to their team right now and near-irreplaceable with any other players that may be available for trade.

Naming Craig Berube the coach is perceived as the change needed to push the Leafs beyond the second round of the playoffs, not a significant overhaul of their roster.

For Tavares, the question is not if he’ll return but rather for how long and how much. While Tavares’ contract is unlikely to be a max-term deal, keep in mind the Leafs gave 34-year-old Chris Tanev a six-year contract, so a long-term extension is certainly on the table.

Based on his production, Tavares has been a model of consistency, averaging around a point per game despite being well into his 30s. The added versatility of having him play left wing and center in the future provides a lot of flexibility.

When Tavares handed the ‘C’ to Auston Matthews, it wasn’t a signal that he wasn’t going to be part of the Leafs’ plans. By all accounts, Tavares wants to retire a Leaf. Remember, when the Sharks transferred the captaincy from Joe Thornton to Joe Pavelski in San Jose, Thornton stayed for six more seasons, and Dustin Brown did the same in L.A. after the ‘C’ was given to Anze Kopitar.

Re-signing Tavares first may give the Leafs a better idea of their cap structure, but locking him up may also leave less room to re-sign Marner.

Marner’s situation is a little more complex.

He will draw significant interest in free agency, which means the Leafs could very easily be outbid, but the Leafs can also sign him to an extra year, provided they do so by midnight before Marner hits free agency.

The hometown kid may make concessions – as Tavares did when he reportedly left more lucrative offers on the table – but it’s no secret Marner’s relationship with the market and fan base hasn’t always been rainbows and unicorns.

There’s a lot riding on the Leafs’ playoff performance this season as it could spell the end of the ‘Core Four’ Era, and there’s certainly a ton of trepidation and nervousness because this team hasn’t always responded well to high-pressure situations. They have been wildly successful during the regular season, but they need to make a big leap in the playoffs – think conference finals and beyond. Anything short of that will require deep thinking and difficult decisions on how to bridge that gap.

Sam Bennett, C, And Aaron Ekblad, D, Florida Panthers

Current cap hits: $4.425 million for Bennett, $7.5 million for Ekblad

Bennett is due for a big raise, and the nearly capped-out Panthers are one of the teams hoping the cap ceiling goes way up.

He's having his best season yet in his contract year, on pace to tie his career-high 28 goals and reach 60-plus points. Bennett's abrasive style of play suits the Panthers perfectly, but his potential asking price could make it difficult to fit him under the cap, and Anton Lundell has proven he can be a very capable No. 2 center behind Aleksander Barkov.

Talks on an extension were believed to have taken place earlier in the season, and there have been no updates yet. Both sides are likely waiting to see what happens with the cap and what transpires between now and the playoffs before deciding on how their future may look together.

Ekblad is a homegrown product, the 2014 No. 1 pick who has spent his entire career with the Panthers. Though he didn’t turn out to be the dominant elite defenseman some had expected, he has become an indispensable core player.

It’s doubtful Ekblad signs elsewhere, and the Panthers also can’t really afford to lose him considering the only other two under-30 defensemen signed beyond this season are Gustav Forsling and Niko Mikkola. It would be surprising to see Ekblad and the Panthers part ways.

Brock Nelson, C, New York Islanders

Current cap hit: $6 million

Of the players on this list, Nelson feels the most likely to change addresses.

The Islanders are currently out of the playoff picture, but the wild-card race in the East is super tight. There are two windows where Nelson could change addresses: at the deadline or in free agency, and a lot will depend on how the Isles perform this season.

If the Islanders are not in playoff contention, Nelson becomes one of the most valuable trade pieces on the market. He’s a reliable, consistent center who can play in all situations with multiple 30-goal seasons under his belt.

My chat with #Isles Brock Nelson on pending UFA status @TheHockeyNews https://t.co/jKyCxqnHAa
— Stefen Rosner (@stefen_rosner) December 30, 2024

Every team could use a player such as Nelson, but he has a 16-team no-trade list. The Isles could opt to trade the 33-year-old Nelson for younger players to ensure they are competitive in the next seasons or a package of futures to replenish their very bare prospect pool and fill his void through other means.

If the Islanders are in playoff contention, there’s little doubt they’ll hang on to Nelson. He is far too critical to be given up at that juncture, even if it means they risk losing him to free agency for nothing.

There is a sense of loyalty from both sides; when Nelson was an RFA heading into the 2018-19 season following a poor 2017-18 campaign, he signed a one-year prove-me deal that walked him to unrestricted free agency. He bounced back, and the two sides agreed to their current six-year pact before the season ended. It has worked out great for both sides, though much has changed since then, and Nelson has far more options now than he did in 2018.

There has been no news of an extension forthcoming, and Nelson told The Hockey News' Stefen Rosner that he and the team are just trying to play better and get into a better spot right now.

Jakob Chychrun, D, Capitals

Current cap hit: $4.6 million

When the Capitals acquired Chychrun from the Ottawa Senators, then-GM Brian MacLellan noted there was no rush to re-sign him because they wanted to see if he was a good fit.

Well, with 25 points in 32 games and the Capitals near the top of the standings, Chychrun has definitely been a great fit.

With Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson’s contracts expiring after 2025-26, the Caps have to consider their long-term future. Matt Roy and Rasmus Sandin are signed through 2027-28, and Chychrun would certainly keep them competitive.

Excluding players on LTIR, the Caps have roughly $12 million coming off the books among their forwards next season, none of whom are considered core players. That gives them plenty of room to re-sign Chychrun, though there has been no news of an impending extension thus far.

Chychrun turns 27 in March, and a defenseman in his prime who can skate, shoot and defend as well as he does will be highly sought after in free agency. Seeing how Ryan Lindgren has struggled this season, Chychrun is far and away the best option in terms of age and ability among left-shot defenders headed toward unrestricted free agency.

Other notables

Claude Giroux, RW, Ottawa Senators ($6.5 million cap hit)

Brad Marchand, LW, Boston Bruins ($6.125 million cap hit)

Kyle Palmieri, RW, New York Islanders ($5 million cap hit)

Jason Zucker, LW, Buffalo Sabres ($5 million cap hit)

Patrick Kane, RW, Detroit Red Wings ($4 million cap hit)

Ivan Provorov, D, Columbus Blue Jackets ($6.75 million cap hit)

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