Is Erik Karlsson a realistic trade target for the Oilers?

As the March 3 trade deadline nears, the Edmonton Oilers have just over two weeks to beef up their roster ahead of a critical stretch run, and it appears they have their eye on two-time Norris Trophy winner Erik Karlsson.

Edmonton has reportedly been pursuing the San Jose Sharks defenceman for much of this season, with the team re-engaging in trade discussions last weekend. While nothing seems imminent, talks between both sides will likely only intensify as the deadline draws closer.

But would acquiring Karlsson be the right move for the Oilers? More importantly, can they realistically afford the NHL’s highest-paid defenceman, given the organization’s current financial crunch?

Let’s start with the potential fit. The 32-year-old blueliner has been one of the most productive offensive defensemen over the last decade, registering seven 60-point seasons across 14 NHL campaigns — and he's in the midst of the best campaign of his career.

Karlsson leads all blueliners this season with 18 goals, while his whopping 73 points thus far also leads all defencemen and ranks sixth among all skaters league-wide. The four-time All-Star also ranks sixth in average ice time (25:27), 16 spots ahead of Edmonton’s Darnell Nurse (23:43).

At his current pace, the veteran righty is destined to set new career highs in both goals (21 in 2014-15) and points (82 in 2015-16) and could do so while playing on a rebuilding, basement-toiling Sharks squad. But imagine what would happen to his scoring totals if he played on the same team as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl — especially as the new anchor of that already absurd power play.

The Oilers have reportedly been searching for a puck-moving defenceman all season, preferably someone capable of sustaining a high workload. While they’ve also been linked to Arizona’s Jakob Chychrun — a fellow offensive-minded defenseman — Karlsson is likely a better fit for Edmonton's win-now approach.

With 14 NHL seasons under his belt, including six playoff trips, Karlsson would add another layer of veteran experience to Edmonton’s locker room — a vital aspect they’ve been lacking on the back end following Duncan Keith’s retirement.

As someone with two conference final appearances, one in 2017 with the Ottawa Senators and the other with the Sharks in 2019, the former 15th overall selection knows what it takes to embark on a deep postseason run and could share that knowledge with his new teammates.

Adding Karlsson to the mix would also address the team’s long-standing weakness involving its top defensive line, featuring Nurse and Cody Ceci. That duo has been effective at 5-on-5, although there have been occasions when they’ve been lacking offensively.

With a high-ceiling performer at Nurse’s side, though, rather than a defensive defenceman, the Oilers’ offensive output would likely soar even higher moving forward. The power play would be poised to receive a considerable boost, too.

Tyson Barrie, sitting with three goals and 23 points with the man advantage this season, currently operates as the lone defenceman on Edmonton’s top power-play unit. He’s been reliable in that role but doesn’t pose a shooting threat, at least, not like Karlsson does.

From an on-ice perspective, the superstar defenceman and his elite skating ability would fit perfectly with the Oilers’ offensive weapons and team speed, while theoretically giving Edmonton one of the most lethal PP1 units the league has ever seen. There are additional factors at play here, however, namely the financial ramifications of landing a player of his calibre — and salary bracket.

Here is where pursuing Karlsson becomes tricky: his eight-year contract runs through 2026-27, carrying an $11.5 million cap hit per season. Edmonton, meanwhile, features roughly $1.97 million in long-term injured reserve space, and that’s before returning Kailer Yamamoto ($3.1 million cap hit) to the active roster.

The Oilers’ cap situation is so tight that Jesse Puljujärvi ($3 million cap hit) could find himself on waivers this week to make way for Yamamoto’s impending return. That also wouldn’t be ideal, as it’d leave the team with only 12 forwards — though there aren’t many alternatives.

For general manager Ken Holland to make a legitimate run at Karlsson, he’ll have to utilize his money-in-money-out strategy again, just as he has stated he would repeatedly throughout the season. But that, too, can be a very complicated process.

In all likelihood, the Oilers would require the Sharks to retain 50 percent of Karlsson’s remaining contract, which they’ve been reluctant to do up to this point, according to Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli. So far, first-year GM Mike Grier has only been willing to go 18-20 percent and is also commanding three first-rounders or a similar equivalent.

Unless those demands change, an Edmonton-San Jose blockbuster involving Karlsson simply isn’t feasible. And even if they do, the Oilers would probably need to locate a third-party broker to offload a portion of his expensive cap hit.

At 50 percent retained, Karlsson’s cap hit would fall to $5.75 million, a pretty reasonable figure but one that would be difficult for the Oilers to absorb. But if another team took on 25 percent — or slightly less — of the remaining amount, fitting him on Edmonton’s payroll would become more attainable.

Management would still have to trade one of its current blueliners to create space for Karlsson’s reduced figure, one with a $2 million cap hit or higher. That would lead to moving one of Barrie ($4.5 million), Ceci ($3.25 million) or Brett Kulak ($2.75 million).

The downside, however, to taking that approach would mean sending future assets to two franchises rather than just one. As a result, it could leave the Oilers’ prospect system — headlined by top young defenceman Philip Broberg — and draft capital extremely thin.

On the other hand, if making a splash for Karlsson translated into at least one Stanley Cup for McDavid and Draisaitl, it might be worth sacrificing a chunk of the franchise’s competitive window.

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