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NHL draft lottery: Last-place Leafs come out on top in our 10-spin simulation

The Leafs are a lock.

No, not for the Stanley Cup anytime soon. (That’s crazy talk.) Rather, the Toronto Maple Leafs are a lock to win the 2016 NHL draft lottery and the right to (presumably) select Auston Matthews with the No. 1 overall pick.

How do we know? Easy. We ran the NHL lottery simulator over at the aptly named nhllotterysimulator.com. And not just once, either. No, we ran the lottery simulator 10 times – and lo and behold, the Leafs ended up with the No. 1 pick four times, the only team to land in the No. 1 slot more than once. (Not to mention, Toronto ended up with a top-three pick nine times in the 10 simulations; the Winnipeg Jets were next with just three top-three results.)

OK, so maybe four times out of 10 isn’t exactly a “lock.” And maybe this whole exercise isn’t exactly “scientific” in its approach or particularly “relevant” in its outcome. After all, the only draft lottery that matters is the one performed by the NHL next Saturday, April 30 -- and it’s a one-shot winner-take-Auston set-up, not a keep-trying-until-your-team-hits-the-Matthews-motherlode. But if you’re a Leafs fan, it’s been more than 30 years since your team has had the No. 1 overall NHL draft pick – Wendel Clark in 1985 – and nearly 50 years since your team has won the Stanley Cup. So, might as well celebrate the small victories, you know?

The Leafs are looking to add to their stable of prospects, which already includes William Nylander (above) and Mitch Marner. (Getty)
The Leafs are looking to add to their stable of prospects, which already includes William Nylander (above) and Mitch Marner. (Getty)

Here’s a look at the percentage chance for the 14 non-playoff teams at winning the first pick in the 2016 NHL draft:

1. Toronto Maple Leafs 20%

2. Edmonton Oilers 13.5%

3. Vancouver Canucks 11.5%

4. Columbus Blue Jackets 9.5%

5. Calgary Flames 8.5%

6. Winnipeg Jets 7.5%

7. Arizona Coyotes 6.5%

8. Buffalo Sabres 6%

9. Montreal Canadiens 5%

10. Colorado Avalanche 3.5%

11. New Jersey Devils 3%

12. Ottawa Senators 2.5%

13. Carolina Hurricanes 2%

14. Boston Bruins 1%

With that in mind, here’s a look at how the Leafs fared – as well as everybody else except the Columbus Blue Jackets (sad face) – in our 10 draft lottery simulations:

The Leafs ended up with the No. 1 pick in four of 10 simulations -- and landed a top-three pick nine times.
The Leafs ended up with the No. 1 pick in four of 10 simulations -- and landed a top-three pick nine times.

It’s been a while since the Leafs have been on top of any kind of NHL standings, so soak it up, Toronto.

Beyond the Leafs’ good fortune in this simulation experiment, here’s a few other thoughts:

-- The Blue Jackets, with the fourth-best odds (9.5%), didn’t win once in 10 attempts? Even more stunning, they didn’t even end up with a top-three pick once? Columbus, it’s official: you have the worst luck in the NHL.

-- The Jets are our stealth pick to soar up the draft order and maybe even fly away with the No. 1 pick. Winnipeg has the sixth-best odds (7.5%), yet landed the No. 1 pick once and a total of three top-three picks in 10 attempts. Could Matthews go from his hometown of Scottsdale, Arizona, to a year in Switzerland to … Winnipeg?

-- The Devils were the best of the long shots, ranking 11th out of the 14 non-playoff teams at 3%, but ending up with the No. 1 pick once and landing in the top three another time. The Avs, with the 10th-best odds (3.5%), also pulled off a draft upset with a No. 1 win.

-- The Oilers will likely win the real draft lottery because that’s what they do.

Finally, here’s a look at the top 30 prospects (and two goalies) for the 2016 NHL draft, courtesy of International Scouting Services’ end-of-season rankings:

2016 NHL draft rankings (source: International Scouting Service).
2016 NHL draft rankings (source: International Scouting Service).

Let the draft lottery balls fall where they may....

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