NFL Week 1 preview: 5 essential things to watch, like Joe Burrow’s return, the new-look Falcons, and more

Every year, without fail, the urge for "FOOTBALL" strikes up within me after Labor Day. It's uncanny.

Don't get me wrong. I consider myself a football expert who keeps tabs on the league throughout the offseason. Or, at least, I try to. (Please don't send me angry emails.)

But free agency, the draft, and any anodyne practice news just don't carry the same weight as tangible games with genuine drama. The juice of offseason and preseason churn isn't always there for me. That's because NFL games are soap operas like no other. They're an eclectic cornucopia of efficient strategy, hard feelings, mind-boggling decision-making, and skin-crawling tension. Sometimes, it really feels like you're watching a prestige TV show, unsure about the next wild plot twist that will put a deep pit in your stomach.

That prospect in itself makes me much more thrilled about the 2024 NFL opening weekend finally being upon us.

All season long, I will give you a picture of what I'm watching for over the upcoming NFL weekend. To the best of my ability, this preview column will serve as a table-setter, a means to contextualize what you've seen so far and what's most important in the league week by week.

This Sunday is a doozy. We've got a hyped rookie quarterback making his debut as the hopeful savior of a tormented franchise. We've got established Super Bowl contenders trying to make the best of their likely remaining time together. We even have (formerly) lovable losers who now have to face down one of the most dangerous opponents in the NFL -- high expectations.

This is For The Win's Week 1 preview for the 2024 NFL season. Dearest readers, let's dive in and have some fun.

1. The Bears' floor for Caleb Williams will probably be tested earlier than they think

By now, you've definitely heard everything about what the Bears have built around mega-hyped No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams. It would've been impossible to avoid if you like the NFL, so I'm sure of it. You also know very well about the magic he's capable of with the ball in his hands.

But let's rehash it for posterity as Chicago officially begins the Williams this Sunday against the Tennessee Titans.

On offense, Chicago has D.J. Moore, one of the 10 best receivers in the sport. There's Keenan Allen, a perennial Pro Bowler and borderline Hall of Famer with juice left in the tank. You have Rome Odunze, Williams' hopeful future best friend who still has to learn the ropes in the pros but should become a trusted gamebreaker in due time. Round things out with one of the NFL's better tight end rooms with Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett and a gifted multipurpose running back in D'Andre Swift, and the Bears are cooking with gas. The Bears clearly have one of the finer skill groups in the league, with plenty of versatility and utility across the board. On paper, anyway.

On defense, Chicago returns a dominant unit that played at a top-3 pace to close the second half of the 2023 season. After years of diligent investment, Second-Team All-Pro Jaylon Johnson heads up a secondary that could be so dominant that it might have a national nickname by the end of September. Tremaine Edmunds and T.J. Edwards are an upper-echelon linebacker duo, and Pro Bowler Montez Sweat suddenly has a lot of pass-rushing depth alongside him, particularly promising rookie Austin Booker, even if no one else is a bona fide star.

Suffice it to say: this Chicago defense should pick up exactly where it did last fall.

Knowing that, the Titans become a perfect test for the Bears' experiment. After hiring new head coach Brian Callahan, Tennessee overhauled its roster over the offseason, notably acquiring big fish like L'Jarius Sneed and Calvin Ridley. Heck, the Titans even made a trade for blitzing linebacker Ernest Jones only two weeks before the start of the regular season! This Tennessee team has no established identity, but they know that Williams is a rookie and that he can be flummoxed into youthful mistakes.

Sunday presents a tricky matchup in which I anticipate Williams looking inexperienced and uncomfortable. The rest of the Bears' gifted roster—just as they have always planned—has to pick up the slack before their green talisman is ready to carry them by himself. If they can't do it against this Titans team in transition, that's a bad omen for the rest of the season.

2. The Falcons have propped open a window with Kirk Cousins, but it's too early to tell what kind

Let's not beat around the bush. The Falcons haven't had a consistent quarterback play since the halcyon days of Matt Ryan. But last year was especially rough as we watched ex-developmental prospect Desmond Ridder flail about, fumbling on whims and throwing passes out of bounds over his receivers' heads just about every week. It was a stomach-churning test of former head coach Arthur Smith's nonexistent resolve while he simultaneously tried to answer basic math queries, "Hey, maybe my most talented players should touch the ball more."

Enter the established Kirk Cousins in new head coach Raheem Morris' mission to revitalize one of the league's dormant teams since, you know, that whole 28-3 thing. Please refrain from throwing tomatoes at me until this article is over.

Cousins represents stability. An actual professional quarterback who can make his reads and drop dimes. For all the flak that the 36-year-old (sometimes rightfully) takes, he is in that clear second tier of quarterbacks who can win a lot of games with solid supporting casts. Yes, he has a tendency to play like a pumpkin on occasion, but ask yourself, how many quarterbacks really avoid that fate?

(Psst, three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes was third in interceptions last year.)

Cousins raises the Falcons' ceiling by default. So does top-tier pass-rusher Matthew Judon and all-around dynamo safety Justin Simmons. The question here is: By how much?

I'm VERY comfortable picking Atlanta to win the mediocre NFC South. Running away, in fact. But the way the Falcons have ha spent this offseason suggests they want a bigger bite of the apple. Because winning their division specifically isn't an impressive achievement. They want to be an actual NFC power that is still playing in late January.

If the Falcons fancy themselves a genuine championship contender, they should beat the brakes off a Pittsburgh Steelers team in their home opener on Sunday. Nothing about Pittsburgh and its extremely fluid quarterback situation (is it Russell Wilson? Is it Justin Fields) suggests this is a group that should hang around with a certifiable "elite" team. If they do, even in the context of an overreactive Week 1 against a veteran quarterback in a new city like Atlanta, it'll tell us all the wrong things about where the Falcons actually stand.

3. Joe Burrow's return comes as the Bengals hit a fork in the road

It's been a long time since anyone referred to the Bengals as the "Bungles." Gone are the days when anyone invoked the Bengals as the perfect accompaniment to Cincinnatians' culinary staple, Skyline Chili, which they amusingly thought was/is edible food. Gone are the days of Cincinnati dominating the fall, only to wilt in the winter with a familiar thud. Oh, you get the idea.

But hoo boy, I'd be lying if the Bengals' future didn't make me at least a tad nervous. Joe Burrow's official return from a 2023 season-ending wrist injury this Sunday against the New England Patriots comes at a climactic point for this resurgent franchise.

You see, superstar receiver Ja'Marr Chase still needs a new contract. So does his less-talented fellow star sidekick, Tee Higgins. Oh, and 29-year-old top defensive end Trey Hendrickson also spent the offseason clamoring for a new deal before the next phase of his career. Factor in a newly-stacked AFC that probably overshadows all the work the Bengals have done since their Cinderella run to Super Bowl 56, and we're no longer talking about a team smack dab in the middle of a Golden Era.

We're talking about a team (clears throat) starting a potential "Last Dance" type of 2024 season. There is no room for error beyond this year. Even if Burrow is in place for the foreseeable future, I would not be penciling in the Bengals as a long-term playoff lock without knowing the contract status of their core players on the end of their strings. Sunday's matchup against the Patriots is by no means a monster battle. As it stands, New England will likely be in contention for this year's No. 1 overall pick. It is indeed that bad.

But the Zac Taylor-Joe Burrow Bengals have been notoriously slow starters. They've won in Week 1 just once of four opportunities dating back to 2020. They started 0-2 in each of the last two seasons, which is traditionally a death sentence for legitimate playoff hopes. It all but guarantees you are spending the first half of a season digging out of a hole rather than building solid momentum.

Burrow and the Bengals cannot afford a slow start this time around. Beginning 2024 in a hole while knowing that this might be the last time they're all together in one place will put Cincinnati's season at risk of imploding before it even really begins.

4. The Lions are officially the NFL's darlings, and it's a spotlight they still have to learn how to handle

How could you not love these Lions?

Over the last few years, head coach Dan Campbell and general manager Brad Holmes have pieced together one of the NFL's more electric team environments. The Lions are plucky. They're tough-nosed. They play the right way, they play together, and they're extremely well-coached in all three phases. From top to bottom, this is the most complete team in pro football, with no crippling weaknesses.

Hey, I won't be bashful about it -- I'm picking the Lions to win the NFC!

So it should be no surprise to see Detroit get the vaunted opening Sunday Night Football slot with a home game. Matthew Stafford returning to play contender Detroit once again was not an opportunity anyone would pass up for primetime. Do you know who usually plays on the first Sunday night of the NFL season, an unofficial celebration of this silly, oh-so-flawed, but wonderful game?

The Dallas Cowboys. The New York Giants. The Green Bay Packers. All marquee teams. All organizations the NFL actively champions and gives the limelight to without them even asking.

The league is now doing that with the Lions, giving them a platform without a second thought. That's just what you do when you have football's answer to the Chicago Cubs in the palm of your hand. Everyone wants to see the former lovable losers shine!

But nothing is guaranteed about a Lions' run to success in 2024. They would not be the first NFL team to see immeasurable hype for half a year only to fall flat on their face the moment it's time to deliver on expectations. It happens all the time, and this is new, strange territory for the Lions. They are no longer sneaking up on anyone. They have the target on their back, especially in a challenging NFC North with two other potential playoff teams in the Packers and Bears. The difference between being the hunter and being the hunted is stark. It's more insidious than anyone believes, too.

How the Lions deal with the glass slipper on their foot will ultimately determine their season. I have faith that Campbell has the pulse of his team and understands this delicate balance. His entire value as a coach is relating to his players and motivating them well in the first place. Sunday night is gonna feel like the party of the year in Michigan. Ensuring it stays rowdy and lively until the final snap is the Lions' first real test as a marquee team.

5. Which 2023 non-playoff team starts the year with a bang?

One of the NFL's main selling points is its general unpredictability. I'm not talking about the teams left standing at the end -- those almost never change. I'm referring to the churn of the playoff field, which usually turns over around 4-6 new teams every season. When half of the squads in the postseason are shuffled out, the ease with which a professional sports league can sell hope is almost comical.

Week 1 is a fresh, clean page for non-playoff teams seeking relevance. It's where they can make a name for themselves and announce their presence to a league that's probably treating them like an afterthought. We haven't seen anyone play yet, so it's almost impossible to determine who this year's feisty, underdog teams are.

That said, I think I have three good lowkey candidates to watch, who all have somewhat favorable matchups on paper, and who all should be in mix come late December:

1. Arizona Cardinals (at Buffalo Bills)

In their first battle together, Kyler Murray and Marvin Harrison Jr. get a Buffalo team in transition. Josh Allen is a gamer, a towering statue of a quarterback, but even he might have limits on overcoming a less-than-ideal situation. Facing down the fearless, rebuilding Cardinals could prove more challenging than expected.

2. Jacksonville Jaguars (at Miami Dolphins)

Everyone assumes that the Jaguars' revitalization is probably over. The 2023 season was a gut punch, watching Trevor Lawrence struggle as the upstart Houston Texans ascended to the top of the AFC South with a much stronger program. But I wouldn't write off these Jaguars just yet. Rookie receiver Brian Thomas Jr. will be a great friend to Lawrence, and that Jacksonville front seven has some ballers. Taking care of the pretender Dolphins shouldn't be that hard.

3. New York Jets (at San Francisco 49ers)

Do I like the chances of a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles beating a top-5 defense in its own building under the lights? No. Do I appreciate how the Jets built their top-heavy roster? Also no. But it's Week 1, and crazier things have happened. Don't tell me you'd be shocked to watch an older Aaron Rodgers cut up a cocky 49ers defense that's probably already game-planning for Week 2. Don't say I didn't warn you!

This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL Week 1 preview: 5 essential things to watch, like Joe Burrow’s return, the new-look Falcons, and more