NFL Thanksgiving: Picks for Dolphins-Packers, Bears-Lions, Giants-Cowboys. Will Miami be the big upset?

GREG COTE’S NFL WEEK 13 THANKSGIVING DAY PICKS

BEARS (4-7) at LIONS (10-1)

Line: DET by 10.

Cote’s pick: DET, 34-16.

TV: 12:30 p.m. Thursday, CBS.

The traditional roasted bird will just about be going into the Cote oven Thursday when the opener of the NFL Thanksgiving tripleheader kicks off. This is proving not to be the season to expect Detroit to revert to its old self. Because Dan Campbell has a monster going on. The Lions as double-digit favorites? Last two times that has happened. this season, Jared Goff and the lads have put up 52 points ... not total, in each game. Bears QB Caleb Williams has been better under new O-coordinator Thomas Brown. That and the rival/division factor could see the Bears hanging around as your Turkey Day digs in. But Detroit has turned into a juggernaut to be feared not doubted. At home and with America watching, I’d expect the Lions, especially that offense, to be in full preen mode.

GIANTS (2-9) at COWBOYS (4-7)

Line: DAL by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: DAL, 24-17.

TV: 4:30 p.m. Thursday, Fox.

Dallas will be putting its 0-5 home record on national display right around the time the Cotes (and many of you) are sitting down at the banquet table Thursday. Cowboys have owned this NFC East rivalry, winning seven straight games, 14 of the past 15, and the and the past seven in a row at Jerry’s House. Now it’s the duel of break-glass-in-case-of-emergency QBs in Cooper Rush vs. Tommy DeVito. And two head coaches under fire, with the seat under Brian Dabol even hotter. Dallas Micah Parsons had two sacks in the upset win at Washington, and now faces an NYG squad that majors in giving up sacks. We’re praying for you, DeVito. Well, OK, not really. Because we’re rooting for our pick. Giants are 0-5 covering as a dog of four points or less. Let’s keep it that way.

DOLPHINS (5-6) at PACKERS (8-3)

Line: GB by 3 1/2.

Cote’s pick: MIA, 27-23.

TV: 8:20 p.m. Thursday, NBC/Peacock.

Feast digested, tryptophan kicking in, dessert looking good but too full to eat. While the rest of us are feeling this on Thanksgiving night, the Dolphins are taking the field at Lambeau Field, with temperatures expected in the low 20s, with wind gusts but (mercifully) only a small chance of rain meaning snow. Oy! Brutal weather. Teams last met in 2022 (Tua Tagovailoa threw three picks), and Miami last won in Green Bay in 2010. But Miami has won three in a row entering this to hoist its season toward playoff hope, with Tua playing great. Yes, Tua in this kind of weather has not been a pretty sight. In fact he is 0-7 in games where the temperature is 40 or below, most recently in the playoff loss in Kansas City last January. Still, the Dolphins’ solid run defense will force Jordan Love to try to win in the air in conditions he can’t love, either. Yeah, yeah, I get it. There is every reason in the world to think pragmatically here, to think safely, to pick the Pack on the Frozen Tundra. But I’m feeling saucy. Maybe it’s the holiday? Blame my friend Jim Beam? Tua said this week, “I love killing narratives.” This one is: Miami can’t beat good teams, and can’t win in the freezing cold. So that makes this a two-for-one narrative-killing holiday special. And early Black Friday sale! I say the Dolphins, with a ton to prove, will stay hot in the freezing cold. Upset!

Betting lines courtesy ESPNBet as of Tuesday evening..