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NFL Stock Watch: Jameis Winston rising, Devonta Freeman falling
STOCK UP
Jameis Winston: He got 8.5 YPA and tossed four touchdowns on the road against an Atlanta secondary that allowed just 19 scores through the air all of last season, as Winston’s ascent into superstardom continues. Winston should be treated as a top-10 fantasy quarterback at minimum, and he gets the added benefit of facing the Saints in Weeks 14 and 16 during the most important time for fantasy owners. Meanwhile, it was also encouraging to see Mike Evans have a nice game against a Falcons defense that ceded the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers last year.
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Kelvin Benjamin: There’s little question now Benjamin is back as Carolina’s clear No. 1 WR. He saw 12 targets and ripped off 91 yards and a score against arguably the league’s best secondary in Denver, and he’s only going to get better the further he’s removed from knee surgery and back into game shape.
C.J. Anderson: It remains up in the air if Anderson can stay healthy over a full season, but he looked fantastic in Week 1, and he’s going to be given the opportunity to be Denver’s true workhorse this season. There’s a real argument CJA should be viewed as a top-three fantasy back moving forward, and he’s likely the top RB play in Week 2 at home against the Colts.
Will Fuller: His would-be 83-yard TD drop was ugly, but Fuller was otherwise impressive during his NFL debut, when he turned 11 targets into 107 yards and a score. Drops will remain a problem for the rookie, but he already looks like one of the best deep threats in the league, and he’s a WR3 for fantasy purposes moving forward.
Spencer Ware: He split snaps evenly with Charcandrick West, but Ware saw twice as many touches (18 compared to nine) and most importantly, was a big part of Kansas City’s passing offense (securing 7-of-8 targets for 129 receiving yards). The Chiefs have a tough upcoming schedule over the next few weeks, but Ware is locked in as an RB1 as long as Jamaal Charles is out and should maintain RB2 status even when the latter returns to action. Ware is the real deal and is more of a hold than a sell high.
Jeremy Kerley: Kerley led the 49ers with 11 targets and 61 receiving yards Monday night just two and a half weeks after signing with the team. He would’ve also added a long score if not for Blaine Gabbert badly over throwing him while wide open. Kerley doesn’t have a ton of upside, but he’s someone to add in deeper PPR leagues. He looks like the preferred receiver to own among all San Francisco wide receivers.
Carson Wentz: The rookie won’t get to face the Browns every week, but Wentz was highly impressive during his debut, when he got 7.5 YPA and posted a 101.0 passer rating. Philly should be involved in plenty of shootouts in 2016, and Wentz already looks like a viable QB2. The Rams have to feel awfully silly taking Jared Goff over him. Jordan Matthews’ fantasy value gets a boost as a result as well.
Matt Forte: All the preseason talk about Bilal Powell being heavily involved in a timeshare was put to rest when Forte was given 27 touches in Week 1 (Powell got six). He failed to score during a goal line carry (an area in which he’s struggled throughout his career), but overall it was a highly encouraging outing. Forte is an injury risk at age 30, but he’s an RB1 while healthy.
STOCK DOWN
Devonta Freeman: It’s clear the Atlanta coaching staff wasn’t bluffing when they claimed Tevin Coleman was going to be a big part of the team’s offense in 2016, as the two backs split work evenly in Week 1. Freeman is likely to remain the main goal-line option, but Coleman looked good, especially as a receiver, which is a problem for Freeman’s owners as much of his value last year came from seeing 97 targets (the third-most among all RBs). It’s a real concern for last year’s No. 1 fantasy running back.
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Dez Bryant: He came close to scoring a touchdown (it was originally ruled a score but later overturned), which would’ve given his owners less panic than they are experiencing now, but the lack of downfield throws by rookie Dak Prescott is worrisome. The Giants’ defense looks much improved this season, and it’s just one game, but it’s tough to treat Bryant as anything more than a low-end WR2 until Tony Romo comes back.
Tyrod Taylor: He totaled just 122 yards and got 5.0 YPA without a score against a Ravens defense that yielded a 30:6 TD:INT ratio last year. The real long-term concern here is Sammy Watkins’ health, as the talented wideout is dealing with pain in his surgically repaired foot. It’s an injury that often recurs, so this comes as no surprise but is nevertheless potentially devastating to Taylor’s fantasy value, as he was a completely different quarterback last year with and without Watkins in the lineup. Watkins doesn’t appear to be in serious jeopardy of missing Week 2, but it could be some time before he’s close to 100 percent.
Robert Griffin: That didn’t take long. Griffin was terrible before refusing to slide late in a game in which the outcome was already decided, resulting in a shoulder injury that has landed him on IR. RG3 may be out for the rest of 2016, making Josh McCown the team’s starter and suddenly an option in 2-QB formats. The move back to McCown is huge news for Gary Barnidge, who was held without a catch in Week 1. The tight end position is in complete disarray throughout the league right now, and Barnidge should settle back in as a borderline top-five option moving forward.
Coby Fleener: Speaking of shaky tight ends, Fleener somehow managed just one catch for six yards during a game in which the Saints totaled more than 500 yards of offense. Offseason concerns about him having trouble learning New Orleans’ playbook were realized in Week 1, and Fleener shouldn’t be treated as anything but a desperate TE2 play until proven otherwise.
Jared Cook: The tight end theme continues with Cook, who followed up a buzzy preseason with a dud in Week 1. It would hardly be the first (or second or third) time the enigmatic TE disappointed fantasy owners, as he ran just three more routes (18) than Richard Rodgers did Sunday.
Philip Rivers: The season-ending injury to Keenan Allen is a huge blow to Rivers’ fantasy value, as he was the QB2 with Allen in the lineup last season and the QB23 with the wideout sidelined. Don’t expect such a drastic drop this year, but Rivers’ upside is certainly hurt with Allen once again going down.
Todd Gurley: He was held to just 42 yards on 18 touches Monday night against a San Francisco defense that allowed the third-most fantasy points to opposing backs last season. Over his last nine games, Gurley has gotten 3.80 YPC, totaling just 115 receiving yards over that span. He’s without question one of the most talented running backs in football, but the Rams’ offense is just such a hurdle to clear, really limiting Gurley’s upside. Case Keenum looked about as bad as it gets (3.7 YPA) Monday night, and Jared Goff hasn’t even earned the QB2 job yet. It’s a real problem for Gurley and his fantasy owners.
