NFL Draft experts break down Drake Maye’s special traits, weaknesses and top landing spots

Drake Maye’s NFL dream will soon become a reality, as the Huntersville native is expected to be among the top 10 players selected in the first round of Thursday’s NFL Draft.

Maye’s rise up draft boards has been the subject of debate, as pundits have routinely noted his inconsistency during his two years leading the Tar Heels’ offense. But those same analysts have also been quick to put him near the top of the quarterback prospect totem pole over the past few months.

The Myers Park High alum has been frequently slated as a top-three pick in mock drafts by the industry’s most respected experts. He’s been matched with the likes of the Washington Commanders, New England Patriots, New York Giants, Denver Broncos and Minnesota Vikings throughout the pre-draft process. And as the NFL gets ready for the first round of the selection process, few seem to be in a better position to have their name called as early as Maye.

But with Maye being among the most debated prospects in recent years, it’s fair to wonder why he’s considered among the elite group in a heavily praised quarterback draft class. What exactly does he need to improve on to make him worthy of the same praise received by Southern California’s Caleb Williams? And perhaps more importantly, where is the best place for Maye to land to take advantage of his dynamic skill set?

The Charlotte Observer reached out to a handful of notable NFL draft analysts in order to answer those lingering questions as Maye awaits his NFL fate in Detroit.

Why Maye is in special company

Maye, the 2022 ACC Offensive Rookie of the Year, made an immediate impact after taking over for current Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Howell in Chapel Hill as a redshirt freshman starter under head coach Mack Brown.

In his first season as the top signal-caller, Maye threw for 4,321 passing yards, 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also ran for 698 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on his way to being an All-ACC first-team selection.

While his redshirt sophomore campaign offered setbacks for the entire Tar Heels offense, Maye still managed to throw for 3,608 yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also ran for 449 yards and nine touchdowns on the ground.

Despite the inconsistent output, Maye’s athleticism — particularly his arm strength and mobility — shined on a weekly basis. That’s why pundits have been enamored with his upside entering the draft.

“Maye is the prototypical blend of size, arm talent, and movement skills,” said Benjamin Solak of The Ringer. “He has a top-tier NFL arm, which shows in how often he connected with his receivers 50-plus yards downfield. He can drive the ball to the sideline and hit tight windows in the intermediate area of the field, but he also has touch and can throw his receivers open. Add in the size and quickness, which gives him tackle-breaking ability both within the pocket and as a scrambler, and you have the ideal playmaking build in today’s NFL.”

Maye has competed with Williams, LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy to be among the top quarterbacks selected in the draft. While Williams appears to be the consensus No. 1 selection to go to the Chicago Bears, the other three signal-callers have been widely debated among analysts as the No. 2 option.

Of that debated trio, Maye might be the best overall athlete.

“There are not many college QBs with Maye’s physical attributes,” NFL.com draft analyst Chad Reuter said. “He’s a pocket passer who will make off-platform throws, can move within the pocket, as well as break off significant runs — eluding defenders and finishing the run while not taking unnecessary hits.

“He’s capable of leading receivers deep — both on the sideline and over the middle — and placing passes into windows, flashing anticipatory skills and typically throwing a tight spiral.”

Maye’s traits tend to lead to jaw-dropping highlight plays. Those standout performances could have evaluators focusing more on his high ceiling than his potential floor.

“He can do the spectacular,” said Connor Rogers of NBC Sports. “Whether that comes in the form of an off-platform throw or simply dropping it in the bucket down the field from the pocket, his highs are impressive.”

Underdog Football Show host Josh Norris — a longtime NFL Draft analyst — isn’t swayed by Maye’s dip in production last season. He notes that Maye consistently faced tougher field position than his peers with the Tar Heels struggling throughout last season. Maye’s play surely factored into those obstacles, but his upside — more often than not — squeaked through in unfavorable circumstances.

For Norris, it’s hard to ignore Maye’s traits, especially as he enters an NFL landscape that features quarterbacks like Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills, Patrick Mahomes of the Kansas City Chiefs and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens.

“On the surface, he hits every mark on the checklist: big, athletic, live arm — even when off balance,” Norris said. “But there are positives even deeper. He called protections at UNC, and consistently showed calculated movements based on pre-snap pressure looks, drifting away from free rushers into small sections of the pocket that would give him the longest time to throw, even if he took a clean hit at the end.

“His scrambling should not be overlooked. He was second in the FBS in scrambles that equaled a first down, and second in EPA (expected points added) on his scrambles.”

Where Maye could afford to improve his game

There are no perfect prospects. And based on the debate around Maye’s talent, it’s safe to say there are elements of his game to nitpick as he heads to the next level.

Pro Football Focus draft analyst Trevor Sikkema agrees with the other analysts’ various breakdowns of Maye’s strengths. He also sees the pitfalls of Maye’s traits from a technical standpoint.

“His throwing fundamentals can be off at times, which is the cause of some of the frustrating lack of accuracy we saw in 2023,” Sikkema said. “Footwork can get too excited, and when he goes to throw he’s not pointed in the right spot. Also, his interceptions are mostly on him. (There are) a lot of throws he wishes he had back. Part of playing the game, but he has to be better there.”

Maye saw his interception total jump from seven interceptions in 14 games in 2022 to nine picks in 12 games in 2023.

Some analysts attribute those turnovers to Maye trying to do too much with a lack of a strong supporting cast. Others believe Maye trusts his athleticism and arm too much, and that mindset can lead to poor decisions.

“Maye is too aggressive and will have to learn the hard way which throws to turn down at the NFL level,” Solak said. “He’s likely to be a high-interception player early as he attacks windows late in the down and under pressure when he should just eat a sack or throw the ball away. A new system and good coaching can take some of the unnecessary aggression out of his game.

“Maye also needs better timing in his feet relative to the route concept, as that was something not prioritized at UNC but certainly important in the NFL. He just needs reps — both in practice and in game — to ingrain the timing in his footwork. Both are very fixable issues.”

Maye’s tendency to chuck the ball down the field for a big gain — whether the play is actually there or not — reminds Reuter of a former prospect-turned-perennial Pro Bowl selection.

“Like Josh Allen coming out of Wyoming, Maye’s arm arrogance helps him make plays but can also lead to bad decisions,” Reuter said. “At his pro day, it was obvious he was working through new footwork, and when things were not in sync, the throws went awry. Once his feet, mind and arm are married up — which his personal and team QB coach can help him achieve — he should become more consistent over the next couple of years.”

Norris doesn’t consider Maye’s occasional inaccuracy to be a “fatal flaw” heading into the NFL. The longtime draft analyst thinks the 21-year-old quarterback just needs more playing time and experience to find his long-term footing at the next level.

“Michael Penix (of Washington) played six college seasons, and it wasn’t until his fourth when he reached the level of production, or acclaim, that Drake Maye asserted himself during his first years as a starter in 2022,” Norris said. “Bo Nix (of Oregon) is the same. He became a different player in his fourth and fifth years as a starter in college football at Oregon (compared to) Auburn. Jayden Daniels? The same, his fourth and fifth seasons at LSU versus his opening three as a starter at Arizona State.

“Age and playing time (are) often viewed through a physical development lens. But what about mental development as well? Seeing coverages, recognizing hots, pressure packages, windows to throw into. What would Drake Maye look like if he had another two years starting in (college football), just like his peers he is being compared to? When his first year as a starter (in 2022) was just as productive.”

Where is the perfect landing spot Maye?

While the Vikings aren’t slated to pick until No. 11, four of the five analysts said that Minnesota would be the top spot for Maye to take advantage of his talent.

Minnesota has been viewed as a likely trade-up candidate for a quarterback after the Vikings made a pre-draft swap with the Houston Texans to acquire the No. 23 overall pick. That trade gave the NFC North franchise a pair of first-round picks to offer teams selecting in the top-five range.

“Kevin O’Connell’s offense has so much space in the intermediate levels of the field, where Maye is a deadly thrower, and there is fruit on the vine for more vertical passing with receivers like Jordan Addison and Justin Jefferson in hand,” Solak said. “Maye suffered behind the worst line of any of the top quarterbacks this year, but Minnesota has the talent necessary to protect him.”

The prospect of Maye throwing to Jefferson, Addison and playmaking tight end T.J. Hockenson is intriguing for any NFL analyst outside of Detroit, Green Bay and Chicago. But Maye’s opportunity to work with O’Connell and quarterbacks coach Josh McCown — a former Myers Park High assistant coach — would also be a plus for his long-term development.

“Maye’s ability to see and throw over the middle of the field lines up with what Kevin O’Connell wants to maximize in his offense,” Rogers said.

While Sikkema sees the appeal of the Vikings for Maye, he also believes the Giants — slated to pick at No. 6 — are a good fit for the UNC passer.

“I like the Giants and the Vikings as potential landing spots due to the head coaches he would get to work with,” Sikkema said. Both (Giants head coach) Brian Daboll and Kevin O’Connell have proven track records with quarterbacks with the arm talent — or better — Maye presents.”

Reuter agrees with Sikkema on the Giants match. Ultimately, leadership is the draw from Reuter’s perspective.

“I think the Giants would be a nice fit for Maye,” Reuter said. “GM Joe Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll were in Buffalo when Josh Allen was drafted, as was QB coach Shea Tierney. They know what is possible when a QB is given the right guidance to harness their talent while allowing it to shine when the opportunity arises.”

And while the analysts believe the Vikings and Giants are the best fits for Maye, the reality of the draft is that any team in need of a quarterback could select him until he’s unavailable. The Commanders (No. 2) and Patriots (No. 3) both have picks ahead of the Giants, and all three of those teams — as well as the Tennessee Titans (No. 7), Atlanta Falcons (No. 8) and New York Jets (No. 10) — could be in the market for their quarterback of the future before the Vikings are on the clock at No. 11.

The Denver Broncos — slated to pick at No. 12 — could also be a trade-up candidate after sending a notable group of evaluators — including GM George Paton and quarterbacks coach Davis Webb — to Maye’s pro day in March.

As the debate winds down on Maye’s potential landing spots, the drama of the NFL Draft could lead to an interesting night for the UNC quarterback as he prepares for his next football home.