NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 16 Sunday Baller

The Week 16 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EST and features 11 games. Byes won't be a factor for the rest of the 2024 regular season, but the Thursday Night Football (Broncos-Chargers), the Saturday games (Texans-Kansas City and Steelers-Ravens), Sunday Night Football (Buccaneers-Cowboys) and Monday Night Football (Saints-Packers) participants all play outside the main slate. Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 15, but the biggest is the NFL $100K Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $100,000 to the top 1,144 finishers, including $20,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 5,850 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay.

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 16 options include a QB-TE stack that has featured heavy volume lately, a RB thrust into a starting role by an injury and a second-year WR in the midst of a breakout stretch.

QUARTERBACK

Kyler Murray, ARI at CAR ($30): While the Panthers have been the league's most generous defense against RBs, there has been plenty of room left over for QBs to find success against Carolina as well. The Panthers' 27 touchdown passes allowed are tied for most in the NFL, and they have generated only seven interceptions while allowing the 10th-most rushing yards (326) to QBs. Murray's poised to do damage with both his arm and his legs against this vulnerable defense in a game the 7-7 Cardinals need to have in the tight race for the NFC West. He has been inconsistent this season, but Murray has a high ceiling considering he has thrown for over 250 yards with multiple touchdown passes three times and rushed for over 60 yards and a TD twice this season.

Honorable Mentions:

Josh Allen, BUF vs. NE ($40); Jalen Hurts, PHI at WAS ($36); Joe Burrow, CIN vs. CLE ($35)

Against the Grainers:

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA vs. SF ($27); Aaron Rodgers, NYJ vs. LAR ($26); Matthew Stafford, LAR at NYJ ($25)

RUNNING BACK

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET at CHI ($38): Gibbs has already been among the top players in fantasy this season, and now he's due for a likely boost in touches following David Montgomery's season-ending knee injury. Running behind the best offensive line in football, Gibbs has produced 11 rushing TDs and caught three while watching Montgomery score 12 times on the ground. If you combined those two into one player, "Lions RB" would be averaging 182.7 scrimmage yards with 26 total TDs through 14 games. Gibbs on his own could come close to hitting that average against a Bears team that has allowed the second-must rushing yards to RBs (1,618) and is tied for the most rushing TDs (15) allowed to the position.

Patrick Taylor, SF at MIA ($10): With a seemingly never-ending stream of injuries decimating San Francisco's backfield, Taylor's set to go from fifth-string to starter, as Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) is expected to join Christian McCaffrey (knee), Elijah Mitchell (hamstring) and Jordan Mason (ankle) on the sidelines. Luckily for the 49ers, coach Kyle Shanahan may be second only to his father Mike when it comes to plugging unheralded RBs into his system and seeing immediate results. Israel Abanikanda has yet to play since joining the 49ers on waivers and spent 12 games inactive for the Jets before that, and Ke'Shawn Vaughn isn't even in the player pool since he's a little-used practice squad player, so it's safe to assume Taylor will work as the clear lead back against a Dolphins defense that has allowed 15 scrimmage TDs to RBs -- tied for seventh-most in the NFL.

Honorable Mentions:

James Conner, ARI at CAR ($36); Aaron Jones, MIN at SEA ($26); Jerome Ford, CLE at CIN ($22)

Against the Grainers:

Jonathan Taylor, IND vs. TEN ($27); D'Andre Swift, CHI vs. DET ($20); Travis Etienne, JAC at LV ($17)

WIDE RECEIVER

Jaxon Smith-Njigba, SEA vs. MIN ($30): Smith-Njigba has been one of the league's best wideouts since the start of November, as the 2023 first-round draft pick has caught 42 of 52 targets for 606 yards and four touchdowns over the past six games. He has racked up at least 74 receiving yards in every game during that stretch, so Smith-Njigba should be worth paying up for over the slumping DK Metcalf. Geno Smith (knee) looks good to go after last week's injury scare, which should help JSN continue his productive ways against a Vikings defense that has allowed the most receptions (210) and receiving yards (2,673) to wide receivers this season.

Keenan Allen, CHI vs. DET ($26): The Bears are almost certainly going to rely heavily on the pass in this game. Chicago's likely to fall behind after having lost eight consecutive games, and running the ball hasn't been effective against a Detroit defense that's allowing the sixth-fewest rushing yards per game. Injuries have made the Lions quite vulnerable to the pass, and Allen is the Bears wideout best positioned to capitalize on this favorable matchup against a Lions defense that has allowed the second-most receptions (200) and third-most yards (2,528) to WRs. Allen got off to a slow start while battling a heel injury, but he has turned things around with four TDs in his last four games and at least 73 receiving yards in three of those.

DeVonta Smith, PHI at WAS ($24): Smith's a nice value play given his mix of pedigree and recent success. The two-time 1,000-yard receiver has scored a TD in both of his games since returning from a hamstring injury, and Smith showed that he's back to full health by setting season highs across the board with 11 catches for 109 yards on 12 targets against a tough Steelers defense last week. The buy-low window won't be open much longer, and Washington's tied for the eighth-most TDs allowed to WRs with eight.

Honorable Mentions:

Davante Adams, NYJ vs. LAR ($35); Malik Nabers, NYG at ATL ($29); Jakobi Meyers, LV vs. JAC ($28)

Against the Grainers:

Brian Thomas, JAC at LV ($31); Adam Thielen, CAR vs. ARI ($25); Deebo Samuel, SF at MIA ($15)

TIGHT END

Trey McBride, ARI at CAR ($26): McBride's a strong play whether or not you stack him with Murray. The standout TE has 89 catches for 938 yards this season, just one catch and 30 yards behind Brock Bowers' league leads at the position, with McBride's production having come in one fewer game. His gaudy stat line includes 40 catches for 386 yards on 51 targets over the past four games. The only thing holding McBride back is a lack of TDs, but the Cardinals will likely do their best to get him one against a Panthers defense that has allowed a league-high 10 TDs to TEs, as well as the ninth-most yards to the position (797).

Honorable Mentions:

Brock Bowers, LV vs. JAC ($28); Dalton Kincaid, BUF vs. NE ($16); Brenton Strange, JAC at LV ($12)

Against the Grainers:

Sam LaPorta, DET at CHI ($20); Hunter Henry, NE at BUF ($16); Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN at IND ($11)

DEFENSE

Atlanta Falcons vs. NYG ($14): Daniel Jones was far from a world beater in New York, but the Giants' alternatives have played downright pitifully since the team parted ways with Danny Dimes. Drew Lock (heel/elbow) is likely to return to the starting role after posting a 0:2 TD:INT in two previous starts. Atlanta's D/ST unit is coming off a complete effort against a similarly limited Raiders offense that included four sacks, a safety, two interceptions, a fumble recovery and two blocked kicks en route to 20 fantasy points. Energized by the optimism of a change to rookie eighth overall pick Michael Penix at QB and motivated by a chance at a playoff berth at 7-7 in the winnable NFC South, the Falcons D/ST should put forth another inspired effort in its second straight highly favorable matchup against a two-win team.

Honorable Mentions:

Indianapolis Colts vs. TEN ($18); Cincinnati Bengals vs. CLE ($15); Arizona Cardinals at CAR ($15)

Against the Grainers:

Detroit Lions at CHI ($17); Las Vegas Raiders vs. JAC ($10); Jacksonville Jaguars at LV ($10)