NFL DFS Picks: Yahoo Plays and Strategy for Week 3 Sunday Baller

The Week 3 NFL main slate begins Sunday at 1 p.m. EDT and features 12 games, as the entire league will be in action except for the teams playing on Thursday Night Football (Patriots-Jets), Sunday Night Football (Kansas City-Falcons) and Monday Night Football (Jaguars-Bills and Commanders-Bengals). Yahoo will be running plenty of NFL DFS contests for Week 3, but the biggest is the Sunday Baller, which pays out a guaranteed prize pool of $200,000 to the top 3,003 finishers, including $25,000 to the winner. You can submit up to 150 entries into this contest, which has a maximum total capacity of 11,760 entries but will still run if it doesn't fill, potentially providing you with enhanced odds of winning, also known as overlay.

Playing in guaranteed prize pool (GPP) contests is about chasing upside, while lineups geared towards head-to-head, 50/50 or double-up formats should prioritize high floors. The players you want to target for these different contest types aren't mutually exclusive, but winning a GPP tournament usually requires finding a hidden gem or going against the grain in a spot or two, while building a solid base of the same chalk plays you would use anywhere. Against-the-grain plays typically consist of big-name players in tough matchups or boom-or-bust types with uncertain roles.

Keep in mind that Yahoo DFS contests use 0.5 PPR scoring rather than full PPR, which lowers the comparative value of wide receivers and running backs (in that order) while especially affecting high-volume pass-catchers. Your NFL $200k Sunday Baller lineup will consist of one QB, two RBs, three WRs, one TE, one FLEX (RB/WR/TE) and one D/ST unit. Suggested Week 3 plays include a QB-TE stack from what's projected to be Sunday's highest-scoring game, as well as a big-name WR set up pick up the pace after a slow start.

QUARTERBACK

Kyler Murray, ARI vs. DET ($32): Murray has always been one of the top running threats among QBs, and he has at least 57 rushing yards in each of Arizona's first two games. He can also beat you with his arm though, as Murray showed by posting a perfect 158.3 passer rating in last week's 41-10 drubbing of the Rams. The Lions gave up 317 passing yards to Matthew Stafford in Week 1, then allowed Baker Mayfield to rush for 34 yards (the fifth-highest total of his career) and a TD in a Week 2 loss to the Buccaneers. Detroit gave up the fourth-most passing yards and third-most rushing yards to QBs but the fewest rushing yards to RBs last season, so the Cardinals will likely lean on Murray to beat them with both his arm and legs while giving fewer carries than usual to workhorse RB James Conner.

Honorable Mentions:

Derek Carr, NO vs. PHI ($29); Brock Purdy, SF at LAR ($27); Deshaun Watson, CLE vs. NYG ($26)

Against the Grainers:

C.J. Stroud, HOU at MIN ($30); Caleb Williams, CHI at IND ($24); Justin Fields, PIT vs. LAC ($20)

RUNNING BACK

Jahmyr Gibbs, DET at ARI ($29): Double-dipping into the Lions-Cardinals game makes sense since it has the highest over/under in the Sunday Baller slate at 51.5 points. Gibbs has seen a slight uptick in usage to begin his second NFL season, averaging 17.5 touches compared to 15.6 in his rookie regular season. The versatile RB cedes some goal-line opportunities to David Montgomery ($28), but Montgomery's presence hasn't stopped Gibbs from scoring 14 rushing TDs through 20 NFL games, including the playoffs. Gibbs is heavily involved as both a runner and a pass catcher, so he should paly a significant role regardless of whether the Lions are protecting a lead on the ground or playing catch-up through the air against an Arizona defense that has allowed three rushing TDs in the early going. Last year, the Cardinals gave up the most rushing yards (2,027) and receiving TDs (eight) to RBs.

Zamir White, LV vs. CAR ($18): White's off to a disappointing start with just 68 rushing yards on 22 carries after rushing for 397 yards and a TD in the final four games of last season, but he has a perfect get-right popportunity at home against the lowly Panthers. Carolina's offense might put up more of a fight with Bryce Young benched for Andy Dalton at QB, but the Panthers defense is much more than one quick change from turning things around. Only the Colts (350) have allowed more rushing yards to RBs than Carolina's 333, and the Panthers have already surrendered three rushing TDs to the position. The Panthers gave up a league-high 21 rushing TDs to RBs last season and arguably got worse on that side of the ball by trading their best player, Brian Burns, to the Giants in the offseason.

Honorable Mentions:

Tony Pollard, TEN vs. GB ($28); Derrick Henry, BAL at DAL ($28); Zach Charbonnet, SEA at MIA ($25)

Against the Grainers:

De'Von Achane, MIA at SEA ($32); Bucky Irving, TB vs. DEN ($13); Cam Akers, HOU at MIN ($10)

WIDE RECEIVER

Nico Collins, HOU at MIN ($32): Collins has caught 14 of 18 targets for a league-leading 252 receiving yards and one TD, putting him 52 receiving yards clear of second-place Chris Godwin. After breaking out with 1,297 receiving yards last season, Collins has maintained his spot as C.J. Stroud's favorite target despite the offseason addition of Stefon Diggs. Houston could rely on Stroud's arm more than usual this week, as the Texans could be without top two RBs Joe Mixon (ankle) and Dameon Pierce (hamstring). Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has Minnesota's defense playing at a high level, but Deebo Samuel racked up eight catches for 110 yards against the Vikings last week before hurting his calf.

Brandon Aiyuk, SF at LAR ($24): Like White, Aiyuk's a buy-low candidate after a slow start. Aiyuk increased his receiving yardage in each of his first four seasons, culminating in a 1,342-yard campaign last season, but he has looked rusty early in 2024 after missing training camp due to a contract dispute. Aiyuk becomes the clear No. 1 WR for San Francisco with Samuel hurt, and a date with a Rams secondary that allowed 130 yards and two TDs to Arizona's Marvin Harrison in the first quarter last week. LA was also burned for 121 yards and a TD by Detroit's Jameson Williams in Week 1. Cobie Durant (toe) is questionable at cornerback for the Rams after missing last week, while Tre'Davious White's recovery from a torn ACL and torn Achilles in back-to-back seasons has made him a shadow of his former self, unlike J.K. Dobbins.

Jerry Jeudy, CLE vs. NYG ($20): The Giants have struggled in numerous facets of defense, and while they have been most vulnerable to RBs en route to their 0-2 start, Big Blue's inexperienced and ineffective secondary doesn't exactly scare opposing WRs. Jeudy has benefited from a change of scenery out of Denver, as he leads the Browns with 98 receiving yards through two games and has the team's only receiving TD. His 14 targets are three shy of Amari Cooper's team lead, but Cooper will be hard to justify at his valuation after catching just five of his 17 targets for 27 yards.

Honorable Mentions:

Marvin Harrison, ARI vs. DET ($30); DeVonta Smith, PHI at NO ($27); Rashid Shaheed, NO vs. PHI ($22)

Against the Grainers:

Alec Pierce, IND vs. CHI ($21); Diontae Johnson, CAR at LV ($19); Demarcus Robinson, LAR vs. SF ($18)

TIGHT END

Trey McBride, ARI vs. DET ($21): Despite having just eight catches through Week 5 last season, McBride tied for fifth among TEs with 81 receptions in his breakout sophomore campaign. The five guys ahead or tied with him (Evan Engram, T.J. Hockenson, Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta and David Njoku) have just 15 combined catches due to a combination of injuries and slow starts, while McBride has picked up where he left off, with 11catches on 15 targets for 97 yards, plus a TD he got by diving on a ball in the end zone, which earned him brownie points with both Arizona's coaching staff and fantasy managers. All eyes are on Harrison after the rookie WR's breakout Week 2 performance, but McBride is still Murray's most trusted target, as he's four targets clear of Harrison for the team lead.

Honorable Mentions:

George Kittle, SF at LAR ($20); Sam LaPorta, DET at ARI ($20); Mark Andrews, BAL at DAL ($16)

Against the Grainers:

Brock Bowers, LV at CAR ($21); Greg Dulcich, DEN at TB ($10); Jordan Akins, CLE vs. NYG ($10)

DEFENSE

San Francisco 49ers at LAR ($14): There are plenty of affordable defenses with decent matchups this week, but it's hard not to like this mix of pedigree and matchup. The 49ers have been among the top D/ST units over the past few years, still have plenty of talent on paper, and have performed decently so far with five sacks, two interceptions, two fumble recoveries and 21.0 PPG allowed. Meanwhile, the Rams were just routed by the Cardinals and head into this matchup without top two WRs Cooper Kupp (ankle) and Puka Nacua (knee), leaving Demarcus Robinson as Stafford's top target in the passing game. Coach Kyle Shanahan used to notoriously struggle head-to-head against Sean McVay, but that rivalry has shifted decidedly in Shanahan's favor recently, as the 49ers held the Rams to just 15.3 PPG across three consecutive San Francisco wins before the Rams won a meaningless Week 18 meeting in which SF rested starters after having already clinched the NFC's top seed last season.

Honorable Mentions:

Cleveland Browns vs. NYG ($15); Las Vegas Raiders vs. CAR ($14); Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. DEN ($12)

Against the Grainers:

Seattle Seahawks vs. MIA ($14); Baltimore Ravens at DAL ($12); Tennessee Titans vs. GB ($11)