NFL betting: Why we like Seattle in the NFC West

Sometimes in life, you just have to learn things the hard way. The key is not repeating the same mistakes. Pete Carroll taught us all a lesson in 2022, and I was as guilty as anyone for underestimating his ability to succeed with Geno Smith at the helm. Once the Seahawks shipped Russell Wilson to Denver, I convinced myself they hit all the markers of a rebuild. I pegged them for a last-place finish, and even placed a small bet on them to not record a road win the entire season (in my defense, the road schedule was tough).

Geno Smith went on to win Comeback Player of the Year while leading a passing attack that finished just outside the top 10 in EPA. The Seahawks were a nice surprise, but still far from Super Bowl contenders. They did manage a 9-8 regular season record and gave the 49ers all they could handle in the wild-card round before the wheels fell apart in the second half. This season, I like their chances to finish the job.

The Carroll-Wilson split not only proved Seattle can win without its former franchise quarterback, but highlighted Carroll’s ability to create an offense around his quarterback’s strengths. That was consistently doubted during Wilson’s final years with the club, and it's a big part of why I'm buying the Seahawks in 2023.

What can Carroll do as an encore with Smith under center? I’m betting on 10 or more wins and an NFC West crown.

Seattle Seahawks over 9.5 wins (+130)

The Seahawks had one of the better offseasons, making significant improvements on both sides of the ball. The defense, which ranked 26th in EPA per play, needed the most attention. Seattle lost two games last season when it scored 32 or more points and allowed 7.9 yards per play in its playoff loss to San Francisco. Seattle being able to swarm in after the Rams released LB Bobby Wagner was a dream scenario for this defense. Wagner is still one of the best linebackers in the game, and his command and leadership will help the young players fit in and contribute at a high level. Seattle also made improvements to its pass rush through free agency and selected DB Devin Witherspoon with the fifth overall pick in the NFL Draft. Addressing the defense on all three levels is a major plus for a unit that just needs to be able to get some big stops while the offense does its thing.

Everyone is focusing on whether Smith can do it again. I am pretty confident he won’t need to in an offense where less might be more from the quarterback position. By surrounding Smith with an abundance of playmakers, Carroll can take the weight off Smith’s shoulders, making it easy for him to get the ball out quickly to his playmakers in space. Inserting rookie slot receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba into an offense with DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett on the outside equips Smith with one of the most dangerous sets of wideouts in the league. The running game also gets a pass-catching complement to Kenneth Walker III in Zach Charbonnet, allowing Seattle more play-calling flexibility on early downs. Considering it will be Smith’s second-year as a starter in Seattle, there should be enough command of the offense to take it to the next level.

I am sold on the Seahawks improving to 10 wins. Betting over 9.5 was a bet I had to make, considering the current odds at BetMGM are +130. It’s a one-game improvement from last season’s 9-8 record without a challenging schedule. Carroll has only missed going over his win total in four of 13 years with the Seahawks, per Clevanalytics.

Seattle Seahawks to win the NFC West (+195)

I always try to find additional ways to wager on teams that I believe have a higher ceiling than the market. Seattle’s odds to make the playoffs are -120, but I see more value in playing them to win the division at +195. The 49ers were an absolute juggernaut last season. However, the most common reason a team’s season gets derailed is because of injuries at the QB position. That’s been San Francisco’s Achilles heel since Kyle Shanahan was hired in 2017. There are a lot of ways the 49ers QB situation can go south.

In only eight starts, Brock Purdy battled through an oblique injury before his season-ending elbow injury in the NFC championship game. He isn’t fully healthy, and if he reverts back to the player he was in college, the window opens for Seattle to steal the division. If Sam Darnold is the quarterback for any significant amount of time, I am feeling really good about having Seattle at +195 to win the NFC West. The 49ers are the more talented team without question, but any favorite at the top of a division with an unsettled quarterback situation should be a target for bettors. There are enough plausible scenarios for me to take a shot on Seattle at the current odds.

Stats provided by PFF and Clevanalytics.