NFL betting, odds: The Green Bay Packers are now underdogs to make the playoffs

The Green Bay Packers missed the NFL playoffs in Aaron Rodgers' first season as a starter way back in 2008. Since then, they've missed the playoffs just twice. One of those seasons, Rodgers missed over half of the year with a broken collarbone. Since his rookie season, Rodgers and the Packers have missed the playoffs just once with the quarterback healthy.

The Packers were the No. 1 overall seed in the NFC last season. They had a disappointing playoff performance against the San Francisco 49ers and they traded away Davante Adams in the offseason. However, the expectation was that Green Bay would still be one of the top teams in the league. Before Week 1, the Packers were the favorites to win the NFC North and they had the fifth best Super Bowl odds in the league. They were -500 favorites to make the playoffs. Only the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills had better odds to make the playoffs.

However, through seven weeks, the Packers are 3-4. Rodgers looks nothing like the quarterback who has won back-to-back MVPs. The defense that some expected to be elite has been inconsistent at best. With Adams gone, the lack of weapons is obvious. It's been a mess in Green Bay and oddsmakers have taken notice.

Packers underdogs to make the playoffs

The Packers got off to a 3-1 start to open the season, but even then, there was cause for concern. They barely beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who were missing almost all of their weapons in that game. They needed overtime to beat Patriots QBs Brian Hoyer and Bailey Zappe at home. However, at least they won those games.

Since then, the Packers have lost three straight games. They've been a betting favorite of at least 4.5-points in each of those games. Instead, Aaron Rodgers lost straight up to Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson and Taylor Heinicke in three straight weeks.

As a result, the Packers sit at 3-4. If the season ended today, they would be out of the playoffs. Oddsmakers have officially made the Packers an underdog to make the playoffs. Green Bay is +130 to make the playoffs and -160 to miss the playoffs at BetMGM.

At +130, it's still implied the Packers have a 43.5% chance of making the playoffs. However, a lot of projection models don't believe the odds are even that high. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Packers have just a 24% chance of making the playoffs. At FootballOutsiders, their projections give Green Bay a 30.3% chance.

The Minnesota Vikings currently lead the NFC North with a 5-1 record. They already have a 2.5-game advantage over the Packers and have beaten Green Bay head-to-head. What was once viewed as Green Bay's best chance to make the playoffs is now a long shot. The Vikings are -600 favorites to win the division.

The success of the NFC East also throws a wrench into the plans for the Packers. At the start of the season, nobody would have expected three teams from that division to make the playoffs. However, the 6-0 Eagles are -10000 favorites to make the playoffs, the 5-2 Cowboys are -1000 favorites and the 6-1 Giants are -300 favorites to make it.

According to Tankathon.com, the Packers have the 4th toughest schedule remaining. They are 11.5-point underdogs in Buffalo this weekend. Beyond that, the Packers still have the Cowboys, Titans, Eagles, Rams Dolphins and Vikings remaining on their schedule.

The Packers aren't playing well, they're already chasing, there aren't many open spots available and they have a tough road ahead. All of these factors have culminated in the Packers now being an underdog to make the playoffs, a situation not many expected at the start of the season.

Buccaneers are still a good bet though

A lot of talk this week has grouped Aaron Rodgers and the Packers alongside Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. It makes sense. Both teams are 3-4, both teams are coming off multiple losses as big betting favorites, and both generational quarterbacks look bad.

However, while the betting market is down on the Packers, they aren't feeling quite the same about the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is a -275 favorite to make the playoffs at BetMGM, which implies they have over a 73% chance of making it.

Of course, the main reason for the difference is the division aspect. There's no 5-1 teams in the NFC South. The Buccaneers, at 3-4, still lead their division. The Falcons are 3-4, while both the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints are 2-5. Tampa Bay remains a -250 favorite to win the division, though that number is way down from where it was a few weeks ago.

As mentioned above, the Buccaneers also have a relatively easily schedule down the stretch. Their strength of schedule remaining ranks 28th of 32 teams. While there's certainly cause for concern in Tampa Bay, it hasn't yet reached crisis level like it has in Wisconsin.