NFL betting, odds: Dan Campbell now has second-best odds to win Coach of the Year

Entering the NFL season, there was a surprising amount of hype surrounding the Detroit Lions. Sure, they got a bit of a bump from being featured on "Hard Knocks," but it was also a young team that added some key pieces in the offseason. They were the most popular bet to win the NFC North. The Lions to go over 6.5 wins was one of the more popular season-long win total bets.

Notably, Dan Campbell was far and away the most popular bet at BetMGM to win NFL Coach of the Year. He became the betting favorite to win the award after over 27% of the betting handle was backing Campbell to win the award in early September. No other coach had over 7% of the action.

After the Lions started 1-6, it felt like most of those betting tickets could be ripped up. However, Detroit has rallied to win six of its last seven games and now has a very realistic chance to make the playoffs. The Lions have cashed the over on their season win total. Despite being 250-to-1 to win NFL Coach of the Year a month ago, Campbell is now just +175 to win the award. Those are the second-best odds in the league behind Nick Sirianni of Philadelphia.

Dan Campbell's odds have moved like crazy

It's been a wild ride for the Detroit Lions this season, and that's been perfectly reflected in Campbell's odds to win Coach of the Year.

The season started with hope and that's why he was such a popular bet to win the award and ended up becoming the betting favorite in the preseason. Quickly, that hope disappeared and that's why Campbell became the longest of long shots to win Coach of the Year. At 250-to-1, he had the same odds as coaches like Mike Tomlin, Todd Bowles and Kliff Kingsbury.

However, things turned around. Campbell fired defensive backs coach Aubrey Pleasant and, coincidence or not, the defense stopped being an absolute sieve. Under offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, Jared Goff and the offense have put up some impressive numbers.

The Lions only loss in the last seven games was to the Buffalo Bills. The Lions were 9.5-point underdogs on Thanksgiving but lost on a last-second field-goal. For bettors, the Lions have covered the spread in all seven games.

The Lions are 7-7 and currently sit a half-game out of the final playoff spot in the NFC. Detroit has an extremely manageable schedule down the stretch. All three games are against teams with losing records in the Carolina Panthers, Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers. At BetMGM, the Lions are +115 to make the playoffs. Those odds are just a little worse than a coin flip.

As a result, Campbell's odds have come crashing down to +175 to win NFL Coach of the Year. If the Lions make the playoffs, he has a very good chance to win the award. At 250-to-1, it was implied he had a 0.04% chance to win. At his current odds, oddsmakers are giving him over a 36% chance.

Does Dan Campbell have a good case?

The Coach of the Year honor in any sport is impossible to predict or even analyze fully. For the most part, the award goes to the coach of a team that surpasses expectations. However, there's a lot of arguments about what factors should be considered. Take a look at the two favorites at BetMGM.

Sirianni is still a -200 favorite to win NFL Coach of the Year. At the start of the season, we all expected Philadelphia to be good. The Eagles made the playoffs last year, upgraded their talent level over the offseason and closed as the preseason favorites to win the NFC East. However, nobody expected the Eagles to be this good — 13-1 is a ridiculous level of good.

On the other side, the Lions were expected to be improved, but they entered the season as pretty sizable underdogs to make the playoffs. Oddsmakers had them as a six- or seven-win team. If Detroit finishes the season strong and makes the playoffs, Campbell and the Lions will have surprised a lot of people.

Which of these two coaching performances is more deserving of the award? Answers will vary based on whom you ask. Immediately you have to acknowledge that Campbell was the coach of the version of the Lions that started this season with a 1-6 record. He made a lot of questionable decisions in those games that led to the putrid start. If Detroit makes the playoffs, it will become the first team to start 1-6 and qualify for the postseason. Is it fair to reward a coach who is cleaning up his own mess? Meanwhile, Sirianni and the Eagles have been consistently excellent all season long.

With three weeks left, there's still quite a bit to figure out. First off, in order for Campbell to have a chance at this award, the Lions likely do have to finish the job and make the playoffs, which they are still underdogs to do at BetMGM. Additionally, with Jalen Hurts now injured for the Eagles, will voters ding Sirianni if he loses a game or two down the stretch with Gardner Minshew potentially taking snaps?

There's no crystal ball here, so it's impossible to say with certainty. However, Campbell is building a very solid argument to win the award.

Any other coaches to consider?

Campbell and Sirianni are far and away the two favorites, according to the betting odds, but as we've seen with Campbell, these odds can change quickly.

Kyle Shanahan deserves plenty of praise for his work this season. The 49ers lost their starting quarterback in Week 2 and their backup quarterback in Week 13. They are humming along and winning games comfortably with third-string quarterback Brock Purdy, who was the very last pick of this year's draft. Shanahan has dealt with key injuries on defense and now will be without Deebo Samuel for a few weeks. Shanahan has the third-best odds to win coach of the year at 14-to-1.

Brian Daboll has the New York Giants in a solid position to make the playoffs after last weekend's key win on the road in Washington. One look at the talent level on the roster will highlight that this has been an incredible coaching job by Daboll. He's 18-to-1 to win the award.

Despite a lot of people calling the Minnesota Vikings frauds, there's no denying they are 11-3 in their first year under Kevin O'Connell. The Vikings' coach is 25-to-1 to win the award.