NFL betting, odds: Are the Jets and Giants for real?

Entering the NFL season, the New York Jets won just 22 football games in the prior five seasons. That mark was tied for the lowest in the league over that span. Who were they tied with? The New York Giants. It's been a while since football was relevant in the New York City area.

For the Giants, you have to go back to 2016 and the infamous boat trip prior to their playoff game against the Green Bay Packers. For the Jets, you have to go back even further to the playoff runs in 2009 and 2010 under Rex Ryan. However, with a third of the NFL season in the books, things certainly feel different in New York.

The two teams have combined to open the season with a 9-3 record. They have that same record against the spread. If the season ended today, both teams would comfortably be in a playoff spot. Both teams are coming off outright victories as sizable underdogs this past weekend. Both teams have four outright victories as betting underdogs to open the season.

However, the burning question is whether this is sustainable. Are these New York teams actually good? Or will the state be served a big dose of reality over the next few months? Let's take a look at how the betting market views these teams.

New York Giants

I'll be the first to admit that I was dead wrong about the New York Giants, as evidenced by the fact that I'm holding an under 7.5 wins ticket on them this year. It would take an epic collapse and minor miracle for me to cash that ticket. Currently at BetMGM, their updated win total is set at over/under 9.5 wins.

New York is somehow 5-1 to open the season and also 5-1 against the spread. If you look at their upcoming schedule, you don't even need to strain that hard to get to 9-1. Their most challenging upcoming game is this weekend at Jacksonville. The Giants are 3-point road underdogs, which means oddsmakers view the teams as about equal on a neutral field. After the Jaguars, the Giants visit Seattle, have their bye week and then host the Lions and Texans.

Teams that open a season with a 5-1 record have made the playoffs over 84% of the time since 1990. Based on recent history at those numbers, the Giants should be in the vicinity of -530 favorites to make the playoffs. However, the Giants are just -190 favorites to make the playoffs at BetMGM currently. Those odds suggest they make the playoffs just over 65% of the time.

This tells us that oddsmakers aren't exactly sold the Giants are a legitimate 5-1 team. They certainly expect some regression, which isn't crazy when you look at their roster. Kenny Golladay is injured and has basically been exiled from the team. Sterling Shepard is out for the season. Kadarius Toney is also injured and started the season in the dog house. Daniel Jones, who very few people believe is any good, is throwing the ball to the likes of Marcus Johnson, David Sills and Richie James.

This makes Brian Daboll's performance as coach even more impressive. He's extracting the very most out of a team that looks pretty bad on paper. Daboll is +425 to win NFL Coach of the Year, the second-best odds behind Nick Sirianni. While the Eagles are undefeated, we expected Philadelphia to be good. At that price, if you expect the Giants to continue to be good and make the playoffs, Daboll is a good bet to win coach of the year. The number on Daboll feels high, which suggest oddsmakers once again possibly aren't sold on the Giants.

In addition to Daboll, the biggest reason for the Giants' success has been Saquon Barkley, who has been one of the best players in football through the first third of the season. Barkley is already a massive -250 favorite to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year.

New York Jets

While the Giants have been a tremendous success to begin the season, one can argue that Jets fans have even more reason to be excited. Unlike the Giants, you can see the talent on this roster and almost all of it is young. If you're a Jets fan and want to be excited, just look at the betting markets for both offensive and defensive rookie of the year.

Breece Hall is the current betting favorite to win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year at +275. Hall is coming off a game where he shredded the Green Bay Packers, rushing for 116 yards and a touchdown. This came a week after he torched the Miami Dolphins for 197 yards from scrimmage in Week 5.

On the other side of the football, Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner is the betting favorite to win NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year at +275. Sauce might already be one of the very best cornerbacks in the league.

The Jets have young players performing at an elite level, but they're also already winning football games and outperforming oddsmakers' expectations. After an ugly loss in their opener to Baltimore, the Jets are 4-1 both straight up and against the spread in their last five games. All four of their victories have come as a betting underdog of at least three points.

With all of that being said, the Jets are still +225 underdogs to make the playoffs this season. Those odds suggest they make the postseason just over 30% of the time. It makes sense when you consider the presumed talent level around the AFC.

However, the Jets are now -160 favorites to go over 7.5 wins this season. Their preseason win total was set at just 5.5 wins. This team is more competitive than most expected and the young stars are leading the way. If New York can win 8 or 9 games and Zach Wilson continues to take major strides forward, Jets fans will take it even if they come up short of the playoffs.

Maybe these New York teams aren't quite as good as their records would indicate, but they are now relevant in the NFL. That's something the New York city area has been waiting for. Oh, and the state also has the Bills, who are the favorites to win the Super Bowl. Not too bad.