Yahoo Sports NFL Bets, Week 3: Riding the NFC South's momentum (not you, Panthers)
After a fairly routine Week 1 the second week of the NFL season introduced chaos back into the mix. Eight of 16 games featured underdogs as straight-up winners. including five who came into Week 2 as six point dogs or worse.
Unfortunately, we failed to jump on that trend in the Scumbag Picks, leading to a completely neutral week. Zero units gained, zero units lost.
That sets us up to bet another day, this time with another week of data to parse. We know the NFC South is better than we expected, with the exception of the team that just benched 2023's first overall pick. We know the Buffalo Bills are playing like a team that didn't just shed a bunch of veterans last offseason. And we know the Pittsburgh Steelers of 2024 look a lot like the Steelers of 2023. And 2022. And 2021.
Let's take that knowledge and see if we can use it to win some money. Rhode Island Scumbag picks are below in blockquotes. My picks -- four this week! -- follow.
After a horrendous week one, it was nice to see my Scumbag picks go two for three in Week 2. Mike Tomlin’s Pittsburgh defense took care of business, and the New England Patriots hung in there with Seattle long enough to cover.
Unfortunately, I made no progress on my unit detriment, thanks to doubling down on the only loss of the week (the shell of the Los Angeles Rams). However the highlight of my Sunday was the OG Rhody Scumbag sending me a “well done” message in our group chat for my bounce back week.
This week, I look to close the gap a little bit with Christian, while at the same time taking him down in the RISL Fantasy League as well (him fresh off being the high scorer of the week). I wish him nothing but failure. On to the picks!
New Orleans Saints (-2.5) over Philadelphia Eagles (one unit)
I’m hopping on the bandwagon with this one. New Orleans has done nothing but dismantle their opponents over the past two weeks. They were incredibly impressive against the JV Carolina Panthers, and even more so against the Dallas Cowboys and their typically staunch defense.
Derek Carr and the offense looks (dare I say it) explosive under Klint Kubiak’s offense. Their defense, always a strength, has answered the bell as well. Philadelphia is fresh off a brutal Monday Night Football loss where a still not 100 percent Kirk Cousins led the Atlanta Falcons on a 70-yard drive in the closing minutes to steal the victory.
Now they have to face an offense with a healthy quarterback and a more complete passing game. Oh, and they still have to worry about Alvin Kamara. I think the Saints continue to take care of business at home with this one.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) over Denver Broncos (one unit)
I’m backing another surprising 2-0 start with the Buccaneers this week. Baker Mayfield has this offense humming (for the most part) right now. They went into Detroit as 7.5-point underdogs and beat them outright.
Now, they get to face a Denver Broncos team that could not get anything going last week. Bo Nix and company should be easier to contain than the Detroit Lions, and to top it off we have the western team traveling to the east coast for an early slate narrative.
Denver’s loss in Week 2 would have actually been worse if the Steelers hadn’t committed offensive penalties on two huge George Pickens plays (one being a TD), and I don’t believe they have the horses to keep this game within a touchdown. Underdogs of six-plus points are 8-0 against the spread this season. This should be the game where we see that trend bucked.
As our former Scumbag used to say, “I’d bet my paycheck on this one”. [Ed. note: And yet, one unit.]
Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5) over Los Angeles Chargers (one unit)
I’m going to keep rolling with Pittsburgh. I understand I’m playing a dangerous game trusting them in back to back weeks, but I truly think they can get it done again at home.
Their defense was as advertised going into Denver, and they can keep it going with the Chargers coming to town for yet again, another early cross country 1 p.m. game. Last week, Los Angeles looked downright dominant against a reeling Carolina Panthers team, but Pittsburgh’s offense is more competent and willing to grind down the clock with a formative run game.
The Chargers will undoubtedly try to play a similar style of football, focusing on the run game and leaning on a solid defense. However, I think Pittsburgh takes advantage of the early start time and ultimately outlasts the Chargers and their formative pass rush with Justin Fields' ability to escape pressure for some positive gains.
Last week: 2-1, 0 units
Season to date: 2-4 (.333), -6 units
My non-Scumbag bets for Week 3: Los Angeles Chargers +2.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers, Indianapolis Colts -1 vs. Chicago Bears, Las Vegas Raiders -5 vs. Carolina Panthers and Buffalo Bills -4.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (one unit each)
The Steelers have only thrown the ball 43 times in two games with Justin Fields behind center. They've run it 77 times -- in part because they've been winning but also because they aren't super confident in Fields, whose 6.2 yard average target distance is the lowest of his career. Here's the run defense Pittsburgh will face in Week 3:
Granted that came against the Carolina Panthers and Las Vegas Raiders, but Jim Harbaugh's run defense is so high above the curve that it would be an elite unit even after some regression. And while the Panthers and Raiders rank 32nd and 31st, respectively, when it comes to rushing EPA, the Steelers rank 29th. If Pittsburgh is going to win this game, it will be via Fields' passing game, which remains uninspiring.
The Colts are 0-2 but playing at home and have the kind of pass rushing depth that can give Caleb Williams headaches akin to the ones he dealt with Sunday night.
Andy Dalton gives Carolina a better chance to win than Bryce Young did. He'll still have to deal with a sieve disguised as an offensive line against Maxx Crosby, who just had two sacks and two quarterback hits against Lamar Jackson. I'm not sold on the idea of a Raiders run based on Week 2, but there should be no debate on who is the better team between them and the Panthers.
Buffalo came out fired up and, despite significant roster turnover, is the favorite to repeat as AFC East champs (again). Jacksonville has some young talent, but lacks the receiving corps to challenge the Bills' revamped secondary and its offense has been a mess in general. The Jags rank 20th in offensive efficiency while Buffalo ranks second. On the defensive side of the ball, it's the Bills at No. 6 and Jacksonville at No. 19. That's not based on a ton of data, but toss in homefield advantage and a very, very drunk Bills Mafia in prime time and I'm in.
I also wanted to throw the Seahawks in here at -4, but their small sample size of games in which they fail to pull away from an underwhelming opponent is enough to give me pause. I've already got four games up there, I'll be fine.
Last week: 1-1, 0 units
Season to date: 3-1 (.750), +2 units
This article originally appeared on For The Win: NFL Bets, Week 3: Riding the NFC South's momentum (not you, Panthers)
