Yahoo Sports NCAA betting: Here are some creative wagers for North Carolina vs. Kansas
The final chapter of the NCAA college basketball season plays out Monday night at 9:20 p.m. ET. The No. 1 seed Kansas Jayhawks are 4.5-point favorites over the No. 8 seed North Carolina Tar Heels. There have been mixed feelings about the Final Four being filled with blue-blood teams, but nobody was complaining about the riveting finish in North Carolina's comeback victory over Duke on Saturday. North Carolina earned eternal bragging rights after eliminating its longtime rivals in Coach Krzyzewski's last game. The Tar Heels now have the opportunity to make history by becoming only the second team to win a national championship as a No. 8 seed.
I like North Carolina's chances, and with Monday night being our last shot to take our swings at the college basketball betting market, I put together a few distinct wagers to help us attack the board. BetMGM offers a large assortment of betting options for Monday night, but here are the three that fit my expectations for how the game will unfold Monday night.
Halftime/Final: Kansas/North Carolina (+650)
I'm starting off with my favorite bet of the three. The odds at +650 are just too juicy for me to pass up this wager. It's good value for a scenario that mirrors how both teams have behaved so far in the tournament. When North Carolina faced its two toughest opponents, Duke and UCLA, it trailed both teams by three points at halftime. In the Heels' most challenging test of the season, it wouldn't surprise me in the least if the Jayhawks jumped out to a first-half lead. Kansas dominated early in two of their last three games, finishing with nine- and 11-point halftime leads against Providence and Villanova. The scenario of Kansas early and Carolina late has a much better shot at hitting than the current odds indicate. The 13.3% implied probability based on the +650 price creates enough value for me to get involved in the action.
How many points will be scored in the game? 151 to 160 (+280)
Over bettors, this might be worth your time. I'm expecting another track meet as both offenses will look to run the floor and push the pace. If we exclude the St. Pete's game, Tar Heels games have combined for 151 points on average in the tournament. North Carolina has dropped over 82 points per game in the tourney and is now set to face the No. 6 offense in the country. Kansas guard Ochai Agbaji is coming off a 21-point performance where he shot 6-of-7 from 3-point range.
You can currently bet the game to go over the total of 152.5 at -110 odds at BetMGM. Here is another bet at +280 odds to supplement your play to the over. Early projections from haslametics.com have the teams combining for 150 points, which is slightly below the current total. Betting the total to fall in the 151-160 range covers you in case the game falls slightly under, as long it doesn't exceed 160. Keep in mind that Carolina, the second-best rebounding team in the tournament, just held Duke to 41% shooting. Both teams have just enough defense to get me comfortable that the game never reaches 161 combined points. The +280 odds give us an opportunity to supplement our over bets and extract a larger payout.
Winning margin: North Carolina by 1-5 (+400)
It's one of the most famous lines used in the sports betting space today: Don't be afraid to sprinkle a little bit on the moneyline. I am going one step further. Take the percentage of your stake that you allocated for the moneyline and carve out a piece for this winning-margin bet.
I always love a good underdog, and Caleb Love has made me a believer in the Tar Heels. I think they are very live in this matchup and with the moneyline priced at +155, it makes sense to play the winning margin prop at +400. It's going to take everything the Tar Heels have to beat Kansas, which is why I expect the game to be decided by a bucket or two. There is always the risk of late fouls extending the margin of victory, but most of the projections agree that we are in for a very tight game. After seeing how this North Carolina team played with composure in the final minutes against Duke, I am confident betting that it will secure a seventh national championship and cash this bet in dramatic fashion.
Stats provided by espn.com, Kenpom, and haslametrics.com.
