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NBA title odds see massive shift following Damian Lillard trade

Damian Lillard driving to the basket during a game against the Utah Jazz - March 22, 2023
Damian Lillard driving to the basket during a game against the Utah Jazz - March 22, 2023

In a three-team trade between the Milwaukee Bucks, Portland Trail Blazers, and Phoenix Suns, seven-time All-Star Damian Lillard was sent to Wisconsin on Wednesday. Lillard formally requested a trade in July, and after months of rumors, speculation, and Miami Heat fans convincing themselves Lillard was already headed to South Beach before a deal had been made, Lillard finally got his wish.

He'll now compete alongside two-time MVP and 2021 NBA Champion, Giannis Antetokounmpo.

The knock against Lillard has long been his inability to go deep in the playoffs. Lillard's Trail Blazers only ever reached the Western Conference Finals once (2019), where they were promptly swept by the Golden State Warriors. Trail Blazers fans always wanted ownership to surround Lillard with more talent.

In Milwaukee, he will not only no longer be the top scoring option, but will be paired with arguably the best player in the world.

How did the Bucks' championship odds change after this trade?

Before the trade, FanDuel listed Milwaukee's championship odds at +600, tying them with Phoenix for the third-highest title odds.

Only the Boston Celtics (+480) and Denver Nuggets (+480) were higher.

After the trade, the Bucks have skyrocketed to the top of the odds boards at (+360).

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Did the trade alter other teams' championship odds?

Yes, but only a little.

The Boston Celtics have since fallen to (+490), while the Nuggets are now at (+500). You would think the Nuggets' odds would remain the same or even improve given that one of the premier players in the Western Conference over the last decade is gone, but Portland was not expected to compete much in the West this year anyways. If anything, the Giannis-Dame tandem only makes it more difficult for Nuggets to win an NBA title should they get that far as their competition in the Finals will likely be stronger.

Is Damian Lillard a good fit in Milwaukee?

There may be some growing pains as the team determines Lillard's role, the team should be much more threatening on offense now than they've been in years past, and that's saying a lot considering the Bucks have been top-10 in offensive efficiency every year since the 2017-2018 season.

The team may take a hit defensively, especially considering they lost Grayson Allen and five-time All-Defensive Team guard Jrue Holiday in the deal. However, the Bucks can afford to take a hit on defense, having always been a strong defensive team, ranking fourth in defensive efficiency in 2023. That could play a factor in Milwaukee's title hopes. Over the last five seasons, here is where each championship team ranked league-wide in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

  • 2023 Denver Nuggets: Offense - 3rd; Defense - 11th

  • 2022 Golden State Warriors: Offense - 13th; Defense - 2nd

  • 2021 Milwaukee Bucks: Offense - 7th; Defense - 6th

  • 2020 Los Angeles Lakers: Offense - 6th; Defense - 4th

  • 2019 Toronto Raptors: Offense - 7th; Defense - 4th

Four of the previous five NBA champions all ranked better in defensive efficiency than offensive.

At the very least, Lillard's presence could keep Giannis in Milwaukee a little bit longer.

Giannis recently told the New York Times that he did not want to stay with the same team for his entire career if it meant he wouldn't win another championship. The Lillard trade is a signal that the Milwaukee front office is willing to put superstar-caliber players around him.

When will we get to see Lillard suit up for Milwaukee?

The Bucks kick off the regular season on October 26, at home against the Philadelphia 76ers. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET.

The Bucks will face Portland in Milwaukee on November 26, and Lillard will return to the Pacific Northwest on January 31, 2024, when the Trail Blazers host the Bucks.

Damian Lillard trade: Full trade details between the Blazers, Bucks, and Suns

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: How does the Damian Lillard impact odds to win NBA title in 2024?