National experts give us their predictions on how Pope’s first season at Kentucky will end

For the second year in a row — but for much different reasons — Kentucky will be one of the most intriguing teams in all of college basketball going into the new season.

Last year, the Wildcats were stacked with five-star freshmen, John Calipari choosing a contrarian approach to winning as the rest of the sport relied on more experienced players.

This year, it’s a completely reshaped roster once again — 12 new scholarship players — but that’s because Calipari’s abrupt April exit for Arkansas led to a coaching change, and new Kentucky leader Mark Pope had to build his first UK team from scratch. Even in the roster-shuffling age of the transfer portal, Pope’s all-new group is an outlier.

In both cases — Calipari’s final Kentucky team and Pope’s first — the college basketball world at large is eagerly awaiting the results.

Last year, the Herald-Leader asked experts from around the country for their preseason predictions on how Kentucky’s campaign would go. Since the NCAA Tournament can be such a crapshoot, we asked analysts to project how the Cats would do in the regular season.

Calipari’s final team ended up doing a little better than our experts anticipated — earning a 3 seed in March Madness — but the result there obviously fell well short of expectations, and the first-round loss to Oakland indirectly led to Calipari’s departure after 15 seasons in charge.

Our question was worded basically the same way this time around, with experts given several choices for what Pope’s team will look like on Selection Sunday — from a 1 seed to out of the NCAA Tournament altogether.

Here’s what they had to say about Kentucky’s 2024-25 season.

UK will make the NCAA Tournament

Of all the college basketball analysts who weighed in on the Wildcats, none have them missing the NCAA Tournament, a scenario that seemed plausible after Calipari’s exit left the program with zero players. (And it’s still not out of the realm of possibility given the difficult nature of UK’s schedule and these players’ lack of experience playing as one unit.)

Even the most cautious of our experts projected the Cats to make the March Madness field in Pope’s first season.

“I’m fully expecting Kentucky to be in the 2025 NCAA Tournament, but the Kentucky that we see in February and March is going to be vastly different than the team we see in November and December,” CBS Sports insider Jon Rothstein said. “The Wildcats have a brand-new roster that has never played together before, and they have a brand-new coach in Mark Pope. The SEC is also headed for a massive year and could challenge for double-digit bids.

“With all that said, anything less than a trip to March Madness would be a massive surprise in Lexington.”

Rothstein did not have the Cats listed on his first AP Top 25 ballot — 20 of the 60 voters left UK out of their rankings — but Rothstein does have Pope’s squad at No. 31 on his personal preseason list. He also told the Herald-Leader over the summer that he wanted to see all the new pieces play well together before pushing them into his own top 25.

Kentucky was No. 23 in the preseason AP poll, the eighth of nine SEC teams in those rankings.

CBS Sports national expert Gary Parrish also has UK outside of his preseason rankings.

“Kentucky is not in my top 25 — but is in my top 35. So I’d probably guess something like a 7 or 8 seed,” Parrish said. “And, honestly, if I were a Kentucky fan, I’d be pleased with that in Year 1 under Mark Pope. Obviously, there was no better way for Mark to remake the roster than by grabbing as many good transfers as he could get. And he did well. But recent history shows teams built this way — with seven or more transfers in one offseason — are rarely good.

“In other words, if Mark is able to create a good team built this way, he’ll be the exception more than the rule. And that’s why I think UK fans should be pleased this season as long as the Wildcats are good enough to enter the SEC Tournament already safely in the field of the NCAA Tournament.”

Longtime national college basketball analyst and Field of 68 podcast co-founder Jeff Goodman had the lowest projection for the Cats of anyone who made a specific seed prediction.

“My gut is that Kentucky makes the NCAA Tournament in the 8-9 matchup, wins a game and then bows out of the tournament,” Goodman said. “Which would still be an improvement over what John Calipari did in Lexington the last few years in March.”

Calipari’s tournament woes were obviously a major factor in souring much of the UK fan base in recent years. Kentucky has won just one NCAA Tournament game in the past four editions of March Madness, with major upset losses to Oakland and Saint Peter’s in that span.

The Cats have not advanced beyond the first week of the NCAA Tournament since 2019, they haven’t won the SEC Tournament since 2018, and UK hasn’t been to a Final Four since 2015.

Expert consensus for the Cats

We gave the experts five options for Kentucky’s season — a 1 seed, a 2 or 3 seed, a 4-6 seed with Final Four potential entering March, a 7 seed or worse, or no NCAA Tournament bid at all — and just about everyone chose some variation on the middle option.

“Kentucky snuck into the back end of the preseason top 25, at No. 23 nationally, and that’s about what I expect Mark Pope’s first team in Lexington to be: a borderline ranked team, one that should be competitive in the SEC but definitely not considered a favorite,” The Athletic’s Brendan Marks said. “Pope doesn’t have a true star — reigning Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year Jaxson Robinson is probably the closest thing — but rather a collection of solid pieces. That’s fine, but it’s just not a roster on par with the likes of Alabama.

“Plus, while I believe in Pope’s offense (and generally in him as a coach), I think it’s a bit ambitious to expect someone who has never won an NCAA Tournament game to suddenly spring a Final Four contender. The Cats should make the NCAA Tournament, for sure, but if Pope’s team makes the second weekend, I’d call that a successful debut — especially after UK’s recent March Madness failures.”

C.J. Moore, also of The Athletic, predicted UK to be in the 4-6 seed range by the end of the season. He’s an AP Top 25 voter, placing the Cats at No. 23 on his preseason ballot.

ESPN’s Jeff Borzello also had UK at No. 23 on his first AP ballot and picked the 4-6 seed range in our poll.

“I think Kentucky is one of the biggest mystery teams entering the season,” Borzello said. “New coach, new system, completely new roster — with questions facing each of those areas. So I think there could be some early bumps in the road, and the SEC is so loaded in the top half that losses are inevitable. But there’s a lot of talent in Lexington — a lot of veteran talent — and with the way the Wildcats should be able to shoot the ball from the perimeter, it’s a team that I expect to be ranked for the vast majority of the season.”

247Sports national analyst Travis Branham, who’s also an expert of the transfer portal — where nine of these new Wildcats came from — had similar thoughts.

“I think the realistic expectation for this team is probably a 5 or 6 seed heading into the year,” he said. “The staff did a good job of putting together this roster with experience and depth, but the lack of size and talent I think could result in some struggles during SEC play, in particular.

“However, with how well they shoot the ball, they could beat anyone in the country, and I could see them get hot and make a run in the NCAA Tournament.”

UK was picked to finish eighth in the SEC, according to the preseason media predictions, a sign of how difficult the league will be in Pope’s first year.

Arkansas Democrat-Gazette reporter Bob Holt — the longtime beat writer for the Razorbacks — picked the 4-6 seed option in the Herald-Leader’s poll and placed the Cats at No. 19 on his preseason AP ballot. Only five voters had Kentucky higher than that.

“I think Mark Pope has done a good job of putting a roster together, and there will be a lot of excitement with him as coach,” Holt said. “He did a good job at BYU, but obviously has more resources to work with at Kentucky, and he knows the program from being a player there, understands the pressures and the expectations.”

SEC Network commentator Tom Hart also predicted that UK will finish in the 4-6 seed range.

“This team is talented and deep enough that we could see a different star every night. They’ll ride the hot hand and will not be dependent on one or two stars,” Hart said. “Given their style of play and elite talent in the league, there will be a wide variance in UK’s performances during conference play. When the shots fall, they can beat anyone.”

Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook editor Chris Dortch chose the 4-6 seed option, too.

“Mark Pope had to basically rebuild the program from scratch, but I think he’s one of the brightest coaches in the game, and he was able to find players in the portal that fit his system,” Dortch said. “The SEC will be a monster league, and it’s difficult to predict other than to say Alabama is the best team. But I think Kentucky fans will be feeling pretty good about their season after it’s all over.”

Final Four in Pope’s first year?

By the time the NCAA Tournament rolls around, it will have been 10 years since Kentucky’s last trip to the Final Four. The only other time in program history that the Wildcats have gone that long between such appearances: the 13 years from their 1998 national title to the 2011 Final Four, which came in Calipari’s second season as head coach.

Several of the experts polled by the Herald-Leader said they viewed the 2024-25 team as a real Final Four contender, even if that’s not the most likely scenario going into the season.

“I think the most logical answer is that they would be in that 4 seed to 6 seed range and, yes, to have a legitimate Final Four shot at the end of the year,” said Mike DeCourcy of The Sporting News. “There are so many avenues to the Final Four now that you have to believe a well-coached team with talented players is in the hunt until they’re eliminated. Consider Alabama last year, which played a monstrous schedule and was flattened by a lot of that, lost four of the final six regular-season games but had players step forward and make plays when it mattered in the NCAAs — including a 16-minute freshman (Jarin Stevenson) hitting five 3s in the Elite Eight.

“It’s hard for any of us to know exactly what Kentucky will be at this point. Some of the key players will be making a step forward in terms of the level of competition or the responsibility they’ll be presented. I think it’ll help for UK, as well, to be in a position where the fan base still is fully in support of the head coach.”

Pope certainly does have an abundance of goodwill with Kentucky fans heading into this season, especially compared to the angst that often surrounded the program in the final years under Calipari.

It’s expected that — barring a complete catastrophe — those positive vibes will continue throughout the former Kentucky player’s first season in charge, even with the inevitable losses likely to come with the Cats’ tough schedule.

CBS Sports senior writer Matt Norlander ranked the top 101 teams in all of college basketball heading into the 2024-25 season. Of the experts we polled, he was among the most bullish on the Wildcats, placing Kentucky at No. 15 on his personal list, behind only Alabama (No. 1) and Tennessee (No. 8) within the SEC.

“I fall in the 4-6 seed range for UK. Specifically, mark me down as a 4 seed for Pope in Year 1,” Norlander said. “I think he strikes a great balance in the depth of the roster, the new-look offense invigorates the program and the fan base. There will be some losses that cause some stress, but the crackle of a new program with a new leader — after things got fusty under Calipari — should translate to national relevance.

“I think Kentucky is third in the SEC and avoids what actually did Pope and Cal in last season: a first-round upset.”

Mark Pope wants to be the ‘CLO’ of Kentucky basketball. What does that mean to him?

What Mark Pope is searching for in his first season as UK coach is a beautiful thing

John Calipari made UK elite in his first season. Mark Pope will have a tougher time of it.

There were lessons to be learned in UK’s exhibition finale. For the players and the fans.

Behind the mad scramble to get Lamont Butler, the ‘linchpin’ of this UK basketball team

For Kentucky’s coaches and Kerr Kriisa, this is a basketball marriage years in the making

UK basketball has two in-state freshmen. What to expect from Trent Noah and Travis Perry.

Where to watch, how to follow the UK men’s basketball season opener vs. Wright State