Here’s who national experts predict will win KC Chiefs-Buffalo Bills AFC Championship Game

This Chiefs-Bills playoff rivalry is something rare.

When Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs face Josh Allen and the Bills in Sunday’s AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium, it’ll be the fourth time the quarterbacks will meet. There have been only four other instances in NFL history of quarterbacks playing four times in the postseason.

Allen offered high praise this week when asked about the Chiefs.

“Patrick is one of the greatest to ever play the game, and they’re one of the greatest teams to ever be assembled, going for a three-peat,” Allen told reporters. “And that’s what everybody wants to be in this league, is to have the sustained success that they’ve had. Again, they play great situational football. They understand when it’s time to go and when it’s time to kind of fend off someone. So again, that’s what we’re aiming to be.”

Can Allen and the Bills end the Chiefs’ three-peat quest? Here are who 102 experts are picking in the game, which starts at 5:30 p.m. and is being broadcast on KCTV (Ch. 5) and KWCH (Ch. 12).

A 28-26 Bills victory is the call from the Sporting News’ Bill Bender. Here is an excerpt of his story: “It’s on Allen to end the Chiefs’ playoff streak, and they are due to finally pull out the victory. Allen and Mahomes put on a show, and this will live up to expectations. It is a lot to overcome with Mahomes’ track record. This time, however, Buffalo finally knocks off Kansas City.”

A 27-26 Chiefs win is the prediction from the Associated Press’ Rob Maaddi. This is a snippet of what he wrote: “The Bills were a home underdog last week when they beat the Ravens. Allen has never won consecutive games as an underdog in 15 tries. The Chiefs are aiming to become the first team in NFL history to three-peat in the Super Bowl era. With Taylor Swift and maybe Caitlin Clark cheering them on, they’re tough to beat at Arrowhead Stadium.”

A 27-24 Bills win is the prediction from Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times. Here’s a passage from his story: “This feels like a turn-the-corner year for Buffalo, especially with how calm and confident this team is. It’s always risky to bet against Mahomes, particularly with so much on the line, but Buffalo can control the tempo with an extremely balanced attack and keep him on the sideline.”

A 31-28 Chiefs victory is the prediction from the Arizona Republic’s Jeremy Cluff. This is an excerpt from his story: “Kansas City is a perfect 9-0 at Arrowhead Stadium this season. The Bills are 5-4 away from Highmark Stadium this year. Josh Allen and company handed the Chiefs their first loss of the season in Week 11, 30-21, but that game was in Buffalo.”

A 24-23 Bills win is the pick for the Miami Herald’s Greg Cote. This is from his story: “Easy to feel good no matter the pick here ... and just as easy to feel anxious. Which team’s pass rush bothers or contains the other QB more effectively might tip this result. Chiefs had eight sacks in the Divisional Round win against Houston last week and must get to Allen, while Bills sackmen Gregory Rousseau and Von Miller have the chops to disrupt Mahomes’ pocket. Mahomes is 16-3 in the postseason in his career, but the dynasty stops (or at least stalls) here. It’s Allen’s time, and Buffalo’s.”

The Chiefs will win, says the NFL Network’s Rich Eisen.

A 26-24 Buffalo victory is the call from Sal Maiorana of the Democrat and Chronicle. He wrote: “All season, the Chiefs have lived on the edge as they went 11-0 in one-possession games, and they did so with the help of their obvious skill and talent and by making huge plays in the most clutch moments. But let’s be honest here, they also benefited from what seemed like an inordinate number of bad penalty calls made by officials against their opposition (especially phantom roughing fouls on Mahomes), and because teams far too often did dumb things against them, which in some cases gift-wrapped Kansas City victories. These factors are what partially fueled the Patriots’ dynasty.”

The Chiefs are the pick for three of five writers at NFL.com: Ali Bhanpuri (27-24 final score), Brooke Cersosimo (25-21) and Dan Parr (24-21). Taking the Bills are Gennaro Filice (23-21) and Tom Blair (25-23). This is part of what Filice wrote: “Mahomes’ ability to shapeshift — and play whatever style is necessary to win any given matchup — is the kind of quarterbacking mastery that typically separates him from other elites at the position. But this season, it sure seems like Buffalo’s signal-caller is closing that gap. Gone are the days of superfluous hero ball from No. 17. Shoot, the Bills just beat a dynamic Ravens team with Allen totaling 147 yards of offense. This version of Allen doesn’t force things, having slashed his interception total from a career-high 18 last season to a career-low six in this campaign. This version of Allen, like Mahomes, lets the game come to him.”

Buffalo will win 28-27, says Fox Sports’ Colin Cowherd.

Picking the Chiefs are nine of the 12 CBS Sports writers: Cody Benjamin (24-22 final score), John Breech (26-23), Doug Clawson (27-24), Jordan Danjani (26-23), Jared Dubin (24-23), Jeff Kerr (27-24), Joel Magaraci (24-21), Tyler Sullivan (30-17) and Kevin Steimle (23-20). Taking Buffalo: Pete Prisco (24-23), Will Brinson (27-24) and Bryan DeArdo (27-24). Here is what Benjamin wrote: “The heart says Josh Allen finally rides a balanced lineup to the biggest stage, but the head says Patrick Mahomes refuses to let it happen, somehow, some way.”

It’s a split-decision for the eight writers at the Athletic. Taking Buffalo: Nick Kosmider, Chad Graff, Larry Holder and Ben Standig. Picking the Chiefs are Josh Kendall, Tashan Reed, Hannah Vanbiber and Josiah Turner. Here is a snippet of Vanbiber’s story: “It’s going to be a tough out for the Bills. Mahomes is 3-0 against Allen in the playoffs, and although the Bills had the Chiefs number in Week 11, it’s hard to beat a team twice. That 30-21 victory came against a different Chiefs team that was lacking Isiah Pacheco, Hollywood Brown, Charles Omenihu, Jaylen Watson and Harrison Butker. DeAndre Hopkins was a newer addition, and neither Kelce nor Mahomes were in playoff form. Playoff KC is a monster indeed.”

It’s even among the six USA Today writers. Going with the Chiefs: Jarrett Bell (27-24 final score), Nate Davis (24-21) and Tyler Dragon (26-22). Picking Buffalo: Chris Bumbaca (26-23), Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz (23-21) and Lorenzo Reyes (31-23).

Also split are the Pro Football Talk writers. Mike Florio has the Chiefs winning 30-27. Chris Simms sees Buffalo winning 27-24. Florio wrote this: “It all comes down to four or five moments. Which team gets it done in those spots? Who can avoid the crucial mistake? Who can force the other team into making one? Who, ultimately, will deliver with the game on the line? It’s truly a toss-up. And anyone who cares about football should be glued to the TV for however this one plays out.”

Another split came from SiriusXM’s Rich Gannon and Bruce Murray.

Picking the Chiefs are five of eight Bleacher Report writers: Gary Davenport, Kris Knox, Maurice Moton, Ian Hanford and Vince Michelino. Taking Buffalo: Brad Gagnon, Brent Sobleski and Wes O’Donnell. Here is part of what Hanford wrote: “I hope I’m wrong and Josh Allen gets it done on the road, but this just feels like the Chiefs’ game to lose. The Bills have been a different team away from Buffalo this season. All four losses have been away from home. Their defense has been significantly worse on the road. And even Josh Allen hasn’t been as good away from the confines of his home stadium.”

The Chiefs are the pick for seven of the 13 NFL coaches and personnel executives polled by The Athletic. Here is what one coach told the Athletic: “Although I think this could be the year Buffalo gets over the hump, I just can’t get past the history. The Chiefs defense will be the difference and force a few key turnovers.”

Taking the Bills are Amazon Prime’s Ryan Fitzpatrick and Andrew Whitworth.

Going with the Bills are four of the six Sports Illustrated writers: Albert Breer, Mitch Goldich, Conor Orr and John Pluym. Picking KC are Gilberto Manzano and Matt Verderame.

The Bills are the choice for six of 10 ESPN experts: Mike Clay, Jeremy Fowler, Kalyn Kahler, Kimberly Martin, Moses Moody and Lindsey Thiry. Picking the Chiefs: Jason Reid, Matt Bowen, Seth Wickersham and Dan Graziano.

The Chiefs will win, say seven of 10 Dallas Morning-News members: Tim Cowlishaw, Joey Hayden, Abraham Nudelstejer, Calvin Watkins, Dana Larson, Craig Miller and Damon Marx. Picking the Bills are David Moore, Newy Scruggs and Kevin Sherrington.

Going with Buffalo are six of 10 NFL Network analysts.