Here is who national experts predict will win KC Chiefs-Houston Texans playoff game

Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud was still attending Rancho Cucamonga High School when Patrick Mahomes led the Chiefs to the Super Bowl LIV championship.

That was the first of three Super Bowl championships Mahomes has won with the Chiefs. On Saturday, Stroud will be trying to stop Mahomes from winning a fourth as the Texans play the Chiefs in an AFC Divisional playoff game.

Stroud was asked this week by reporters what it’ll be like to face off against Mahomes and the Chiefs in the postseason at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.

“It’s moments you dream of,” Stroud said. “Like you said, growing up and dreaming of the moments to be sharing that field or be competing in those moments. So, you know, I’m very excited and ready to roll.”

Can Stroud and the Texans beat the Chiefs? Here are who 78 experts are picking in the game, which starts at 3:30 p.m. and is being broadcast on ESPN and KMBC (Ch. 9).

A 24-16 Chiefs win is the prediction from the Arizona Republic’s Jeremy Cluff. This is from his story: “We did not see the Texans beating the Chargers in our predictions last week. We were wrong. Were we ever. Houston dominated Los Angeles, 32-12 in the wild-card round. With that being said, we don’t see the Texans beating the Chiefs this week, either. Will we be wrong again? Kansas City is a big favorite after having the bye week to rest and prepare for Houston. The Chiefs beat the Texans in Kansas City in Week 16, 27-19. We expect a similar result in the divisional round.”

A 24-17 Chiefs victory is the call from the Sporting News’ Bill Bender. Here is an excerpt of his story: “The Texans could make this interesting if the running game is humming, but it’s still a well-rested Chiefs team at home. Kansas City has won six straight divisional playoff games at home under Andy Reid.”

A 27-17 Chiefs win is the prediction from the Associated Press’ Rob Maaddi. This is part of what he wrote: “Kansas City’s quest for a three-peat starts against the Texans, who are coming off an impressive 32-12 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. (Houston’s C.J.) Stroud made big plays with his arm and even had a career-long 27-yard run that sparked the offense against Los Angeles. Houston’s defense baffled Justin Herbert, forcing four interceptions, including a pair by All-Pro cornerback Derek Stingley. If Stroud and the offense avoid turnovers and Joe Mixon has another 100-yard game rushing, the Texans can keep Mahomes off the field and have a chance to pull off the upset.”

A 27-20 Chiefs win is the prediction from Sam Farmer of the Los Angeles Times. Here’s part of what he wrote: “The Chiefs haven’t been an offensive powerhouse this season, but they’re great at doing what they need to at the right time. It’s going to be cold. It’s going to be loud. Reid is going to have his team ready, and (Patrick) Mahomes is going to do what he needs to do to win.”

A 23-17 victory is the call from the Miami Herald’s Greg Cote. This is from his story: “Two-time champion Chiefs are off a bye and healthy, with wrecking-ball DT Chris Jones expected back from a calf injury sustained in a Week 16 win over these same Texans. K.C. has won four in a row against Houston including 27-19 last month, and has won six straight divisional games at Arrowhead.”

The Chiefs are the pick for all eight writers at CBS Sports: Pete Prisco, Ryan Wilson, Dave Richard, Jared Dubin, Jamey Eisenberg, John Breech, Will Brinson and Tyler Sullivan. Prisco predicts a 30-21 final. This is a passage from his story: “The Chiefs have had offensive line issues this season, but they’ve been better the past month. This will lead to a more comfortable Mahomes. With Hollywood Brown and Xavier Worthy on the field together, look for the Chiefs to roll on offense. That will lead to turnovers by C.J. Stroud that will propel the Chiefs to another AFC Championship Game.”

The Chiefs are the pick for all nine coaches and personnel executives polled by The Athletic. Here is a snippet from that story: “Mahomes hasn’t thrown a pass since Christmas, so it’s paramount for the Texans to start fast to try to expose the Chiefs’ rust. This is the fourth time the Chiefs have claimed the No. 1 seed during the Mahomes era, but it’s just the second such occasion when they clinched early enough to rest their starters in the regular-season finale. The other time was in 2020, and they came off the bye to beat the Cleveland Browns, 22-17 — their narrowest playoff-opening victory of Mahomes’ career.”

The Chiefs are the choice for all five writers at NFL.com: Ali Bhanpuri (23-15 final score), Brooke Cersosimo (29-20), Dan Parr (26-17), Gennaro Filice (27-16) and Tom Blair (26-16). This is part of what Filice wrote: “Kansas City’s head coach boasts a remarkable career record of 32-7 after a bye, leading me to believe that, yes, he will have a plan to stymie edge monsters Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter. As for the Chiefs’ quarterback? Well, this is the time of year when the man’s fully locked in.”

Picking the Chiefs are the five writers at A to Z Sports: Charles Goldman (34-17 final score), Nick Roesch (27-17), Sophie Weller (27-17), Brandon Little (28-17) and Ian Valentino (24-14). This is part of what Weller wrote: “While the Houston Texans ultimately got a big win over the Chargers in the Wild Card round, that game also exposed many issues. Specifically, with Houston’s struggles along the offensive line, the Chiefs defense should be able to pressure C.J. Stroud, not allowing him to make plays and potentially forcing mistakes. And then, there’s Houston’s run game led by Joe Mixon, but Kansas City’s run defense is solid.”

The Chiefs are the choice for all 10 ESPN experts: Stephania Bell, Mike Clay, Jason Reid, Lindsey Thiry, Matt Bowen, Kalyn Kahler, Seth Wickersham, Moses Moody, Dan Graziano and Kimberly Martin.

Going with the Chiefs are the six Sports Illustrated writers: Albert Breer, Mitch Goldich, Gilberto Manzano, Conor Orr, John Pluym and Matt Verderame.

The Chiefs are the pick for the Pro Football Talk writers: Mike Florio (30-20 final score) and Chris Simms (27-17).

The Chiefs will win, say nine of 10 Dallas Morning-News members: Joey Hayden, Kevin Sherrington, Abraham Nudelstejer, Craig Miller, Calvin Watkins, David Moore, Dana Larson, Damon Marx and Newy Scruggs. Picking the Texans is Tim Cowlishaw.

The Chiefs are the pick for seven of the eight ESPN’s “Get Up” personalities.

Picking the Chiefs are 10 USA Today writers: Christian D’Andrea, Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke, Prince Grimes, Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph, Meghan Hall, Lorenzo Reyes, Jordan Mendoza and Tyler Dragon. This is what Mendoza wrote: “Which version of the Chiefs will show up? Less than a month ago Kansas City handled Houston, and the Texans will be sure to make changes to prevent that from happening again. However, the Kansas City home crowd is the difference in a close one.”