NASCAR bettors adopt wait-and-see stance on championship odds as Cup Series Playoffs begin

The green flag drops on the 10-race NASCAR Cup playoffs at Atlanta Motor Speedway on Sunday, but the bulk of betting action in the championship futures market will come after the Quaker State 400.

Ed Salmons, vice president of risk management at the Westgate SuperBook, estimates that, based on past years, 75% of this season‘s NASCAR futures handle has yet to show up.

The wait-and-see mentality is particularly understandable this year, as some drivers near the top of the oddsboard are likely to get bounced from the playoffs before the Round of 8. After the drafting style racing in Atlanta, contenders must survive the Watkins Glen road course and the Bristol short track in the Round of 16, then Kansas Speedway, another superspeedway at Talladega and the Charlotte Motor Speedway road course in the Round of 12. There‘s plenty of uncertainty lurking in that six-race stretch.

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“I think everyone (is at risk),” Salmons told NASCAR.com this week. “Obviously, the playoff points that you bring forward will be huge, but I think you’re going to get a guy or two you wouldn’t think of making it that will run really well or win a race. I mean, Harrison Burton could win Atlanta, who knows?

“In that first set of six, you’re going to have some stuff going on that you wouldn’t expect.”

Unexpected results may not only save bettors from early heartbreak, they may also create value on the odds board as the playoffs progress.

“I do think more value will arise the further we get into the playoffs in large part due to the schedule,” Jim Sannes, a quantitative NASCAR analyst and bettor, said in a direct message.

That value could show up right after Sunday‘s race.

“With the opener being in Atlanta, one of the contenders is going to have issues, which will likely lead to their odds lengthening,” continued Sannes, managing editor of digital media at FanDuel Research. “We could see something similar in Talladega. It might be risky to buy low on someone with two more chaotic races lurking in this round, but as long as that risk is mitigated by lengthened odds, I’m receptive to the idea.”

2024 NASCAR Cup championship odds: Buzz around Reddick, Bell

Tyler Reddick is a bit of an outlier on the futures board. The champion has come from either the Hendrick, Gibbs or Penske garages in six straight years and eight of the last nine, and Reddick is the only driver not from one of those teams priced at 10-to-1 odds or shorter ahead of Atlanta.

In fact, the No. 45 Toyota is among the championship favorites, residing in the neighborhood of Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin.

Here are the odds from three top sportsbooks for all 16 contenders to win the title.

“He’s probably been the most consistent driver all year,” Salmons said of Reddick. “He doesn’t have the wins that some of the other guys have (tied for 5th with two wins), but it seems like he runs top five almost every week (leads the series with 11 top-fives and 18 top-10s). He certainly seems to fit the profile (of a Cup champion).”

“That’s a team that’s normally in past years made a lot of silly mistakes that have hurt him, and they seemingly eliminated that this year, or at least they have so far.”

The championship, of course, will ultimately be decided at Phoenix Raceway on Nov. 10. Yes, he‘ll have to traverse a diverse set of nine layouts to make the final four, but the eventual champ has to run well, and probably even win, on the one-mile track in the desert.

Sannes doesn‘t model NASCAR futures markets quantitatively, but he agrees that bettors should put significant weight on Phoenix as they‘re handicapping the championship.

“In this current format, the eventual champions have all been drivers who have been good at the track where the Championship Race was eventually held,” Sannes said. “That’s why I’d love to get a bit of a discount at some point on Christopher Bell, given how lethal he has been on short, flat tracks this year. He’s the first driver whose odds I’ll check after the superspeedways and entering the Round of 8, before the schedule sets up for tracks that suit him well.”

A Bell title would mean a loss for the SuperBook. There‘s been more money bet on the No. 20 to win it all than any other driver, per Salmons.

While he‘ll price Phoenix more heavily into his championship odds as the field is trimmed, Salmons said, “I think Phoenix has always factored in, and I think that’s why Bell got so much money — because he’s so good at Phoenix.”

How they‘re betting ‘em

Here‘s a snapshot of the NASCAR Cup championship futures books at BetMGM and the Westgate:

• Kyle Busch is BetMGM‘s largest liability. With the No. 8 missing the playoff cut, the sportsbook is safe.

• Austin Cindric represents the SuperBook‘s largest potential loss. “I’ll live with it,” Salmons quipped.

• Hamlin is the SuperBook‘s second largest liability, followed by Bell. Salmons has booked 83 futures tickets on Hamlin; the next driver in terms of ticket count has 19. … Hamlin is third on BetMGM‘s liability list.

• Kyle Larson has drawn the most bets (12.3%) and the highest handle (15.6%) at BetMGM, and is the book‘s second largest liability. Not so at the Westgate. “We’re in a really good spot” on Larson, Salmons said.

• Salmons also mentioned Reddick and Blaney as winners for the house.

Marcus DiNitto manages a sports betting partnership with The Sporting News. NASCAR is one of the many sports Marcus enjoys wagering on. Follow him on Twitter; do not follow his picks.