Moore and Turcotte Present Intriguing Possibilities for Kings Down the Stretch

Trevor Moore was injured against the New Jersey Devils during the Los Angeles Kings' second seven-game road trip of the year. Before the injury, Moore was seeing regular action on the Kings top forward line. While on the top line, Moore wasn't explosive offensively but was still effective. Changes needed to be made, and Head Coach Jim Hiller reshuffled his forward deck. Moore's spot was filled by Alex Turcotte, a top draft pick who has faced many injuries but is improving after years of health issues.

Turcotte recorded four points (2 goals, 2 assists) in his first three games alongside Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. The short sample gave room for positive speculation that he could be the next breakout candidate on the top line. However, since then, he has managed only two points (both assists) in six games. His ice time has also started to decrease upon the team's return home: 15:58 against Edmonton, 12:02 against Philadelphia, 13:46 against New Jersey, and 13:38 against Tampa Bay.

The Kopitar-Turcotte-Kempe line was excellent early on when they were first fused together but has since been less effective than on the road trip. According to NaturalStatTrick, in their 162:46 minutes together, their Corsi percentage is still strong at 53.29%, and their Fenwick is solid at 53.22%. They have started to even out in shots (75 for, 73 against) while maintaining a favorable goals-for vs. goals-against ratio of 11-5. Scoring chances also favor them, with 82 for and 66 against, and high-danger chances at 33 for and 26 against.

Their performance against the Lightning raised red flags and watered their overall analytics. The sole bright spot happened in a span of less than ten seconds. Turcotte recorded a primary assist on a remarkable individual effort, feeding Kempe a one timer go-ahead goal in a game where the Kings blatantly struggled. Beyond that one-line goal, they were overwhelmed. In just 10:13 of ice time, their Corsi was a brutal 39.13%, and their Fenwick was 41.18%. They were outshot 8-3 while even on scoring chances at 4-4. This was with the Quinton Byfield line seeing the majority of Nikita Kucherov/Brayden Point.

The Tampa Bay game could be an anomaly, but it is similar to their performance against the New Jersey Devils. The Kings secured a shutout against an elite Eastern Conference team but were ultimately outplayed and outchanced. Sometimes, that's hockey for you.

While it shouldn't be focused mainly on Turcotte, it is clear that Turcotte and the top line has seen a dip in play since the road trip. Hiller may need to make some adjustments due to this playing with fire results of late. Fortunately for the Kings, Hiller's decisions have generally yielded positive results, which challenge the concept of removing Turcotte from the top line: going against a method that has proven successful for players in the recent past.

There are options now, and Turcotte's ascension has aided in that development. Moore, a recent 30-goal scorer, has returned from his injury and played recently, including the peculiar win against Tampa Bay. Despite being a potential trade candidate, when healthy, he remains a key cog of the roster. If he can connect with Byfield to form a strong shutdown-counterattack line, it would provide the Kings with a dangerous tertiary option to deploy, with similar ingredients to Kopitar's line.

On the other hand, if Moore returns to the top line, it opens the door for an interesting third line of Warren Foegele, Byfield, and Turcotte. Top prospects have thrived in the top six, particularly on the top line (like Byfield and Kempe). Turcotte found himself in a similar situation that has ignited two other top draft picks to break out but has possibly played out his top line cards for now. Now, he may be presented with an exciting opportunity to sustain a high level of play without the feeling of being in the bottom six.

Second Line or Third Line?

Phillip Danault has anchored the 'second line' since joining the Kings before the 2021-22 season. During his time in LA, his primary partners have been Moore and Viktor Arvidsson, the now Edmonton Oiler. Together, they formed an effective shutdown trio capable of matching up against stronger competition while providing solid counterattack potential.

Following the surprising return to the playoffs during Danault's successful first season, the Kings made the curious acquisition of skilled forward Kevin Fiala. Although Fiala was a point-per-game player in his final year in Minnesota, he was not relied upon as a top-line forward. This would become the case in Los Angeles despite becoming the highest-paid forward on the roster this season.

Point and simple, Fiala has had difficulty playing alongside Kopitar. His partnership with Pierre-Luc Dubois last season was supposed to be the next big thing, and it failed. The same expectation and result happened with Byfield this season. His brief partnership with Gabriel Vilardi during the 2022-23 showed promise but was short-lived (7-3 GF/GA in 111:01, Corsi 56.82%, 32-16 HDCF/HDCA)

Ironically, Vilardi would be the key piece that would seal the deal for the Dubois trade, being a center who played well with Fiala, albeit a short period of time. Dubois was outscored 13-11 with Fiala (259:46 TOI) while facing off mostly against bottom six matchups last season, leading to the swap with yet another center.

The apparent solution is to pair Fiala with Danault.

Danault's usage was intended to relieve Kopitar of the burden of facing top matchups, and now he finds himself managing the risk-averse Fiala, who leads the team with a minus-10 rating (the next closest is Andre Lee at minus-5). In addition to monitoring Fiala's defensive pitfalls and precarious offensive play, Danault does have Alex Laferriere flanking on the other wing, who, in fairness, has been an offensive sparkplug (13g, 13a, 26p, +11) in his sophomore season. Laferriere himself has trended well this year but remains a tentative option against elite matchups.

To iron out the concept that Fiala is stuck to the hip of Danault, the trio of Danault-Laferriere-Fiala has the highest TOI for a line on the Kings roster this season. Only 53 forward lines have played over 160 minutes together amongst the 32 teams in the league (128 potential lines, with thousands of unique combinations). The Danault-Laferriere-Fiala line is one of only two on the Kings to play together as much, just above Turcotte-Kopitar-Kempe (166, to 162 total minutes). The Kings are more likely to break up the Kopitar line with Moore's reintegration than disrupt Danault's partnership with Fiala and mess with the production of Laferriere.

Fiala's situation can be avoided for now, largely due to Turcotte and Moore offering different strengths to the lineup. Whether it be elite speed and pace of play (Turcotte) or a dependable defensive presence with a better scoring touch (Moore), both can provide the Kings with valuable options moving forward. The line of Danault will likely remain constant, but it has negatives and positives for Hiller to either placate or deal with as the Kings play down the stretch.

Overall, Turcotte and Moore can rotate, providing a diverse combination of elite speed or defensively sound hockey for an intriguing third-line option. This line has genuinely evolved into what the Danault line was envisioned when it included both Moore and Arvidsson.

If he departs the top line, it shouldn't be considered a complete demotion for Turcotte if he lands with Byfield and Foegele, as this line has essentially functioned as the Kings' best line since returning from the road trip. While Fiala has been a fixture in neither an entirely positive nor wholly negative sense, the Kings can still operate from a position of strength with both Turcotte and Moore. They both have had success playing alongside Kopitar and can move up and down the lineup, something Fiala has yet to be able to do in three seasons in Los Angeles.

The Kings have yet to start deploying the Moore-Byfield-Foegele line, which results in a complete lack of samples to break down despite the line's enticing ingredients. The Kings have yet to include Turcotte in that combination as well, which could end up being the fastest line in the league (individual combined speed).

Hiller still has options and has proven to be savvy with his roster management and player deployment this season, navigating some serious personnel injuries. Although Fiala may seem out of place in the Kings' lineup, Hiller fortunately has yet to reveal his full hand, with plug-ins and combinations centered around Turcotte and Moore to which the league has seen very little of.