MLB wild card round: Picks and predictions ahead of the division series

The 2024 MLB playoffs begin Tuesday as eight teams from the American and National Leagues kick off their best-of-three wild card series for a shot at the divisional round. Monday offered a thrilling conclusion to the regular season. The New York Mets won a thrilling first game of their doubleheader against the Atlanta Braves, and a terrific pitching performance from the Braves in Game 2 ensured that both of those NL East teams would compete in the postseason.

In order to make room for the Braves and Mets, last year's National League representative in the World Series, the Arizona Diamondbacks were forced out of the playoffs, marking the first time since 2007 that neither representative in last year's World Series reached the playoffs the following year (St. Louis Cardinals and Detroit Tigers). That means this season, it's very likely some new faces will have a shot at the Commissioner's Trophy. But you can't compete for a World Series title if you never make it out of the wild card round.

Here are what experts are predicting for the wild card series.

MLB wild card predictions: Who will move on? Expert picks, schedule for opening round

Wild Card Round Predictions:

Tigers vs. Astros:

USA Today: It's anyone's series

• Bob Nightengale: Astros in 3

• Gabe Lacques: Tigers in 2

• Steve Gardner Astros in 3

• Jesse Yomtov: Astros in 3

• Scott Boeck: Tigers in 3

The Detroit Tigers have been one of the hottest teams in baseball down the stretch, so it makes sense that a few of USA Today's experts would believe in their chances of defeating the Astros. Detroit will certainly have the edge in Game 1, throwing AL Triple Crown winner Tarik Skubal on the mound to face off against Framber Valdez.

Tim Keown, ESPN: Tigers to advance

Keown writes, "The Tigers will take down the Astros because -- though, not only because -- Tarik Skubal will win a Game 1 duel against Framber Valdez. The Tigers will win because Houston's Yordan Alvarez, who has been out with a knee injury for more than a week, might play but won't be 100 percent. They'll win because Detroit manager A.J. Hinch is a master at running a postseason bullpen, and he has seven relievers with sub-3.00 ERAs since the trade deadline. And besides -- who picks against such a cool story?"

Tim Kelly, Bleacher Report: Tigers in 3

Kelly writes, "It's hard to pick against the Tigers, given how hot they were down the stretch. Tarik Skubal won the AL Triple Crown for pitchers and will be the AL Cy Young Award winner. Kerry Carpenter hit a grand slam on the final day of the regular season and was one of the best hitters after the All-Star break. Rookies Brant Hurter and Jackson Jobe are interesting weapons out of the bullpen for Hinch. Perhaps the Tigers won't go on a 2007 Colorado Rockies-type run to the World Series after a scalding-hot finish to the regular season, but we're picking Hinch to upset his former team in three games."

Royals vs. Orioles:

USA Today: Orioles are definitely the favorites

• Bob Nightengale: Orioles in 3

• Gabe Lacques: Orioles in 2

• Steve Gardner: Orioles in 3

• Jesse Yomtov: Orioles in 2

• Scott Boeck: Orioles in 3

This is the only series that USA Today's experts unanimously agree upon. The Orioles are certainly one of the best No. 4 seeds in recent memory. They also have a bit of experience on their side, given that they reached the postseason a year ago. The Royals haven't been to the postseason since they won the World Series in 2015.

Tristan Cockroft, ESPN: Game 1 is a must-win for Kansas City

Cockroft writes, "Clinching that wild-card spot early at least gave the Royals the luxury of holding Cole Ragans back to make the Game 1 start, and Seth Lugo is available for the deciding game if it's needed. That's big for this team, which had the majors' best rotation ERA (3.55) among playoff teams. Getting the edge with Ragans over Corbin Burnes will probably be critical."

Tim Kelly, Bleacher Report: Royals in 3

Kelly writes, "Neither bullpen inspires much confidence, but if the Royals have a lead in the ninth inning, Lucas Erceg is a trustworthy option to close the game out. Whether it's Seranthony Domínguez, Yennier Cano or Gregory Soto, there are just too many questions about manager Brandon Hyde's bullpen in Baltimore. Poor starting rotation depth and uncertainty in the bullpen are bad combinations for the postseason, and they will doom an Orioles team that once looked like a World Series front-runner."

Mets vs. Brewers:

USA Today: Brewers shouldn't have much, if any issues

• Bob Nightengale: Brewers in 2

• Gabe Lacques: Brewers in 2

• Steve Gardner: Brewers in 2

• Jesse Yomtov: Mets in 3

• Scott Boeck: Brewers in 2

It's clear USA Today's experts are not huge fans of a team that just played an emotional doubleheader and then hopped immediately into a well-rested Brewers squad. The lack of rest could definitely play a major factor in such a short series.

David Schoenfield, ESPN: Mets must ride momentum to win

Schoenfield writes, "if momentum means anything, then Francisco Lindor's game-winning home run to clinch a spot in October gave the Mets all the additional energy they'll need for this series. And while the Brewers have the advantage in the bullpen, they will still have to set their pen up for success to begin with, and Milwaukee's starting pitching doesn't generate the swing-and-miss you'd like to see from a playoff rotation."

Tim Kelly, Bleacher Report: Brewers in 2

Kelly writes, "There's been a magical feeling for the Brewers this season, and we expect that to continue. The Mets have played tremendous baseball since June 1 and have a legitimate gripe with the Braves and MLB for not planning better and forcing them to play a doubleheader the day before the NLWCS begins."

Braves vs. Padres:

USA Today: Padres huge favorites to advance

• Bob Nightengale: Padres in 2

• Gabe Lacques: Padres in 2

• Steve Gardner: Padres in 2

• Jesse Yomtov: Atlanta in 3

• Scott Boeck: Padres in 2

Much like the Mets, the Braves don't have the luxury of rest heading into this series. The Padres have also been one of the hottest teams in baseball as of late. Atlanta is limping into the playoffs with several key players hobbled, particularly Chris Sale. The fact that he was unable to go in either game of the doubleheader against the Mets is a telling sign that he is not at 100 percent.

Bradford Doolittle, ESPN: Padres are near guarantee

Every ESPN staffer voted the Padres to move on over the Braves. Doolittle explains, "The Padres hit on a couple of key components that make them a team prepped for a postseason run. They're hot (best record and run differential since the All-Star Game) and deep in high-octane bullpen arms with high-leverage experience. This guarantees them nothing, but the Padres look primed for the moment, while the Braves are limping in with a roster missing some crucial players."

Tim Kelly, Bleacher Report: Padres in 3

Kelly writes, "San Diego has one of the stronger rotations in the postseason, with Dylan Cease, Michael King, Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish giving the Friars four capable arms for a three-game series. Also of note: Luis Arráez just won his third straight batting title, and in a lineup with Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Jackson Merrill and Jurickson Profar, he's probably the fifth-most dangerous hitter in San Diego's lineup."

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This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB wild card picks: Expert predictions for each series