MLB playoff chase: Five key series to watch this weekend

Major League Baseball has reached its penultimate weekend, where several teams will play their final home game and pack up for the road, destinations unknown. Some will load up massive suitcases for long journeys – only to return with plenty of clean clothes and no playoff berth.

This weekend will go a long way toward determining those fates.

Just four of 12 playoff berths – the NL Central, to the Milwaukee Brewers, at least an NL wild card berth (Los Angeles Dodgers) and at least an AL wild card spot (New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians) – have been secured. Yet several others can clinch spots this weekend, or greatly enhance their chances.

USA TODAY Sports looks at five series with significant playoff – or historic – ramifications:

Detroit Tigers (80-73) at Baltimore Orioles (85-68)

Right now: The Orioles hold the No. 1 wild card spot in the AL and trail the New York Yankees by four games in the East. Their magic number to clinch a playoff berth is five. The Tigers are tied with Minnesota for the final wild card spot and trail the No. 2 Royals by two games and the No. 1 Orioles by five games.

Of late: Baltimore is in an extended funk, with a 27-35 mark since July 9 and eight losses in their last 11 games, a span in which they’ve lost four consecutive series. Fewer teams are hotter than Detroit, which traded Jack Flaherty and others at the trade deadline but took off immediately thereafter, going 28-16 since Aug. 1. The Tigers took two of three from Baltimore in Detroit last weekend, including nearly tossing a combined perfect game.

This weekend: It’s paramount that Baltimore capture Friday’s game behind ace Corbin Burnes, who will be facing a likely bullpen game from Detroit. The Tigers also haven’t named a starter for Sunday; ace Tarik Skubal’s next start won’t come until Tuesday against Tampa Bay and he’s also lined up for Game 162 against the historically horrible Chicago White Sox.

Minnesota Twins (80-73) at Boston Red Sox (76-77)

Right now: The Red Sox are almost cooked, sixth in the wild-card chase and four games behind Minnesota and Detroit. No, all eyes will be on the Twins this weekend as their monumental September fold shows no signs of stopping. In losing 11 of 18, they’ve ceded the Central to Cleveland.

Of late: The Twins lost three of four at Cleveland, blowing leads in all three one-run losses to hit Beantown in a foul mood. Two weeks ago, they held the No. 2 wild card and a five-game lead over Detroit. Now, all that’s gone.

This weekend: Saturday starter Pablo López is sandwiched by rookies David Festa and Zebby Matthews, who sport ERAs of 5.06 and 6.30, respectively. Fenway Park isn’t exactly the best venue for working out those kinks.

Philadelphia Phillies (91-62) at New York Mets (85-68)

Right now: The Phillies have a six-game lead over the Mets in the NL East, and a magic number of four to win the division. They’re also tied with the Dodgers for the best record and No. 1 seed in the NL, and the Phillies hold the tiebreaker. The Mets are tied with Arizona for the No. 2 wild card (and hold the tiebreaker) and are two games ahead of No. 4 Atlanta.

Of late: New York won the first game of this four-game series 10-6 on Thursday, the third consecutive game it has scored 10 runs. Philadelphia seems to have shaken some second-half doldrums by winning 11 of 18 in September.

This weekend: The Phillies can clinch the division – their first East title since 2011 – by winning two of three and will have ace Zack Wheeler going in the Sunday night finale. The Mets, winners of 16 of their last 20, simply want to hold serve before going into Atlanta for a three-game set beginning Tuesday.

Arizona Diamondbacks (85-68) at Milwaukee Brewers (88-65)

Right now: The D-backs took the series opener Thursday in Milwaukee, five days after salvaging the final game of their three-game set in Arizona. The Brewers clinched the NL Central title Wednesday by taking a series off Philadelphia; they trail L.A. and Philly by three games for the Nos. 1-2 NL seeds.

Of late: Arizona’s 35-17 rampage through July and August has cooled to a 9-8 clip in September, although Brandon Pfaadt’s 12-strikeout performance Thursday was a very encouraging sign for the postseason.

This weekend: These teams squared off in a 2023 wild-card series, when the D-backs swept Milwaukee in two games to launch their improbable run to the pennant, and seem very likely to match up again this year. The D-backs catch something of a break facing Milwaukee in the wake of the Brewers’ division clinch.

Chicago White Sox (36-117) at San Diego Padres (87-66)

Right now: The Padres hold a two-game lead for the No. 1 wild card and a magic number of five to clinch a playoff spot. They trail the Dodgers by four games in the NL West race. The White Sox are three setbacks away from equaling the most losses in a single major league season.

Of late: San Diego has won five of its last six, three coming via shutout. The White Sox actually won a series last weekend! They took two of three at home against Oakland, their first series triumph since June 28-30 vs. the Rockies.

This weekend: Alas, the White Sox won't face Dylan Cease, whom they gifted to San Diego toward the end of spring training for four prospects, a transaction that turned the Padres from iffy contender to live dog. The Padres will be hard-pressed to make up ground in the division race this weekend, as the Dodgers play host to the similarly – but not historically – inept Rockies.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: MLB schedule: 5 series that could shake up playoff race, standings