How the Blue Jays could handle star reliever Jordan Hicks’ upcoming free agency

Major League Baseball’s free-agent period won’t open until five days after the World Series concludes, but when teams begin signing players, one arm that’ll be on the radar of many Toronto Blue Jays fans will be reliever Jordan Hicks — and rightly so.

Toronto’s front office made a giant splash to fortify its bullpen ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline, acquiring Hicks from the St. Louis Cardinals. They paid a hefty price to do so, though, surrendering pitching prospects Adam Kloffenstein and Sem Robberse for a potential rental.

The blockbuster deal made plenty of sense at the time, especially since closer Jordan Romano had recently hit the IL with a back injury, but the move was designed to be much more than a temporary fix. Despite a few hiccups along the way, Hicks showed flashes of that potential.

The flamethrower bolstered a potent relief corps that already featured the likes of Romano, Erik Swanson and Tim Mayza. With his explosive and deceptive arsenal, the 27-year-old thrived to a 2.63 ERA and 3.63 FIP with 22 strikeouts over 25 relief appearances.

The hard-throwing righty also reduced his walk total post-trade, leading to an 8.3% rate — a marker that would’ve been the lowest percentage of his career over a full season.

Trading for Hicks, of course, was supposed to enhance the Blue Jays’ odds of enjoying a deep playoff run this fall. Based on how the final two months of the regular season played out, it appeared the club’s elite bullpen would serve as a superior advantage in the wild-card round.

Only things didn’t exactly pan out that way.

As Toronto's offence whimpered to the finish line, scoring just a single run in the wild-card series, the ‘pen strength was moot as the team was swept in two games by the Minnesota Twins. Hicks made just one appearance during his first postseason with his new club.

Now, as the former Cardinal prepares to enter free agency next month, that could end up being his lasting memory with the Blue Jays organization — a less-than-desirable outcome.

There’s a strong possibility Hicks doesn’t return to Toronto in 2024, and that’s a key reason why his arrival was somewhat of a surprise in the first place. Historically, this front office has shied away from shipping off highly-touted prospects in exchange for players with less than one season of team control.

Management has also avoided shelling out lucrative contracts to relievers, which has proven to be the most volatile position in baseball. Still, Ross Atkins and Co. likely wouldn’t have acquired the flamethrower — and surrendered two talented arms in the process — if they weren’t open to extending him beyond 2023.

Everything would change, however, if Hicks’ preference is to become a starting pitcher again next season. He came up as a starter in the Cardinals’ system before emerging as a dominant reliever over his first two big-league campaigns from 2018-19, and he may want to try his hand at that one final time.

Injuries have been among the factors working against him in that regard, as the right-hander missed all of 2020 due to Tommy John surgery and most of 2021 with a nagging elbow injury. That track record could also be his downfall in pursuing a long-term commitment from Toronto.

Despite those ailments, Hicks made a trio of minor-league starts in 2021 and was stretched out at the major-league level last season, where he made eight starts to go along with 33 relief appearances. Plus, it wasn’t until this past season that he returned to the bullpen full-time.

Such sporadic usage over the last few seasons creates plenty of complications for predicting Hicks’ free-agent value — both as a starter and reliever.

In a starting role, the most recent contract comparable would be San Diego’s Seth Lugo, who signed a two-year, $15-million deal that includes an opt-out last winter. That came after he logged 65.2 innings out of the bullpen in his final season with the New York Mets.

It’s a solid baseline, but Hicks (1.1 fWAR) was worth far more this past season than Lugo (0.2) was in 2022. Despite compiling the same number of innings as his counterpart, he likely warrants a slightly higher average annual value than $7.5 million.

Even though Hicks may desire to return to the starting rotation, remaining a reliever would significantly increase his list of potential suitors and immediately position him among the top arms up for grabs on the open market.

This winter’s free-agent class won’t feature as many star-studded relievers as the previous one, which consisted of Edwin Díaz, Rafael Montero and Robert Suarez. It should, however, include a solid tier of arms beneath Padres closer Josh Hader, who’ll be the top relief pitcher available.

When seeking comparables for Hicks, Philadelphia’s José Alvarado could serve as a close match, mainly because of his age given he was also 27 when he agreed to a three-year extension worth $22 million last February.

Hicks won’t turn 28 until next September, whereas Alvarado just completed his age-28 season, so there is a slight age difference between the two. From a value standpoint, both are on similar playing fields, with the Phillies hurler worth 1.7 fWAR the season before he signed his current contract.

Another comparable might be Montero’s three-year, $34.5-million contract extension he inked with Houston last off-season. The right-hander was five years older than Hicks when he earned that deal, but he posted a similar workload (68.1 innings) and value output (1.5 fWAR) the previous season.

Judging by these two contracts, chances are the Blue Jays reliever will likely fall somewhere in the middle — that is if he still classifies as a relief pitcher. Sticking to that role would, somewhat ironically, likely earn him a larger payday.

Losing Hicks via free agency would likely cause Toronto’s front office to face further criticism from a fan base that has already experienced a hostile postmortem period to their 2023 season. It is fair to acknowledge, however, that deciding against retaining the Texas native would be justifiable if his primary objective is securing another starting role.

Walking down that path would require management to acquire a suitable bullpen replacement, which there should be plenty of in the secondary free-agent market — headlined by Joe Jimenez, Keynan Middleton, David Robertson and Reynaldo López.

It’ll also help that the Blue Jays have a talented wave of relief arms in the pipeline, including Nate Pearson and Hagen Danner, as well as prospects Connor Cooke and Mason Fluharty.