How Blue Jays hitters are turning patience into a weapon

The Toronto Blue Jays entered the eighth inning of a stressful 1-0 ballgame with the New York Yankees on Wednesday in need of some insurance runs — and found them without the benefit of a single hit, stolen base, or sacrifice.

Yankees reliever Tommy Kahnle lost the handle, walking four of the six batters he faced, and the next man into the game, Ian Hamilton, immediately offered Whit Merrifield a bases-loaded free pass to put the Blue Jays up 3-0.

From there, Toronto had a win probability of 94% and cruised to a 6-1 victory.

That's not the kind of sequence any team can rely on, and the Blue Jays don't get too much credit for noticing that Kahnle had completely lost the zone.

Even so, that inning was an example of the Blue Jays' increased patience in recent weeks — something that's serving a lineup lacking elite pop well. At the beginning of the season this team did not differentiate itself with its ability to draw walks, but recently they've posted the highest BB% in the majors.

There's plenty of month-to-month variability there, but the Blue Jays are clearly trending up in the patience department. From April to June they ranked 22nd in walk rate, and since July 1 they rank 7th.

Most of this change can be attributed to personnel differences rather than individual hitters taking a different approach.

Davis Schneider is proficient at taking his base, the notoriously patient Cavan Biggio is getting everyday at-bats, Spencer Horwitz has consistently posted a double-digit walk rate throughout his pro career, Danny Jansen's injury has given Alejandro Kirk more run, and Merrifield is getting fewer starts.

Not all of those things are universally positive. The Blue Jays could certainly use Jansen's bat during their crucial season-ending stretch, for instance, but they have changed the flavour of this offence.

Considering the team has been unable to win with power, getting on base is crucial to this group's success. Drawing walks at an extremely high level is a reliable way to achieve that goal.

Since the team's struggles hitting with runners in scoring position from earlier in the season have not persisted, those walks have a better chance of coming around than they did in the first half of 2023.

The patience the Blue Jays are displaying has utility beyond walks, too, as this has become a lineup that makes opposing pitchers work. While wearing out starters to get to opponents' bullpens isn't always beneficial, it can be in certain matchups.

As it stands, if the Blue Jays make the postseason they're likely to face one of three teams.

If they land in the second wild-card spot that almost certainly means a date with the Tampa Bay Rays or Baltimore Orioles. If they wind up in the third wild-card spot, that means a matchup with the Minnesota Twins.

Two of those squads have rotations that have been more effective than their bullpens in 2023.

Using a patient approach in an effort to chase starters early would be ineffective against the Orioles. Baltimore wants to get to its bullpen. For the Rays there's a slight difference, but it's basically a wash.

With Minnesota, getting to the relievers could make an enormous difference as the Twins' starting trio of Pablo López, Sonny Gray, and Joe Ryan is outstanding, but the team's bullpen is pedestrian.

A playoff series with the Twins is a very specific scenario that may not come to pass, and the team's current approach matters more for the way it affects the offence in the immediate term, but it's still interesting to consider.

If the Blue Jays are going to make the postseason — and make their presence felt on arrival — they'll probably need the lineup to hit for more power than it has thus far. Home runs are crucial to playoff success after all.

But one way they can compensate for a lack of thump, or magnify its impact if it shows up, is by taking walks at the rate they've managed this month.