How the Blue Jays can creatively address their looming roster crunch

Don’t be surprised if the Toronto Blue Jays facilitate deals involving players from their 40-man roster ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline.

Everyone expects Toronto’s front office to be active on the trade front over the next three weeks, likely targeting a right-handed hitter as well as a relief arm and perhaps a depth starter. The challenge, however, is creating space for any trade additions on a full 40-man roster.

It is also worth noting that Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins is unlikely to part with the upper tier of his prospect system via trade — namely Ricky Tiedemann, Brandon Barriera and Orelvis Martinez — limiting him to a group that has largely underperformed thus far.

There is value in the organization's farm system beyond that talented trio, of course, but names like Yosver Zulueta and Addison Barger, who are both included on the 40-man roster, have lost a bit of shine this season. That's true about most of their other highly-regarded prospects, too.

A quiet first half certainly won’t discourage Atkins from dipping into his prospect pool, and it shouldn’t, but it could increase the likelihood of him subtracting from the big-league roster — to some extent, at least.

Like it or not, the Blue Jays will soon face tough decisions regarding their 40-man roster, especially with pitcher Hyun Jin Ryu — currently assigned to single-A Dunedin — inching closer to a return from Tommy John surgery. He could be ready to come off the 60-day IL as early as this month.

Chad Green, who hasn’t begun a rehab assignment yet, is also progressing toward a second-half return and doesn’t appear too far away from re-entering game action. As a reliever, the veteran righty likely won’t require as many outings as Ryu to build himself up post-surgery.

Assuming neither endures a setback, it’s becoming increasingly likely that both Ryu and Green log important innings for the Blue Jays down the stretch, meaning a pair of spots on the 40-man roster will need to be made available upon their respective returns.

So, not only does management have to account for external additions, but they’ll also have to ensure there’s enough room for a couple of rehabbing, veteran arms leading up to next month’s trade deadline. It’d also be wise to look ahead to next winter’s Rule 5 Draft, during which Sem Robberse will be first-time eligible.

As such, Toronto could use this opportunity to subtract from its 40-man roster via trade, avoiding an impending crunch while planning for future seasons — similar to the 2021 Steven Matz trade, which sent three minor-leaguers (Yennsy Díaz, Sean Reid-Foley and Josh Winckowski) the other way.

This year’s version of that bulk-esque trade could centre around Trent Thornton and Thomas Hatch, two optionable pitchers who will likely be atop the chopping block if neither is traded before the end of July.

Mitch White is another arm that may become expendable less than a year after he was acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has essentially been a waste of a roster spot up to this point, compiling just 9.2 innings in seven relief appearances since returning to the majors.

The 28-year-old, without any minor-league options, has strictly been limited to low-leverage situations this season, earning him a measly 0.09 average leverage index. That would be the second-lowest in the majors among 532 pitchers if he qualified (min. 10 innings).

Based on White’s injury-plagued campaign, combined with his 10.07 ERA and 6.69 FIP over 19.2 innings at triple-A Buffalo, the right-hander would probably garner very little trade interest, if any. Thus, attempting to pass him through waivers would likely make more sense.

Then there’s Adam Cimber, who’s currently on the 15-day IL with a right shoulder impingement and still hasn’t resumed throwing. Though he carries all three MiLB options, the 32-year-old possesses enough service time to refuse a demotion to the minors.

Cimber could be transferred to the 60-day IL if his prognosis remains uncertain over the next few weeks. Even if he returns before Aug. 1, the Blue Jays could designate him for assignment, eating the remainder of his $3.15-million salary. The likelier outcome, though, is he’s non-tendered after this season.

On the position player side, it might be time to consider moving on from Cavan Biggio or Santiago Espinal, especially considering Atkins may target an infielder at the deadline — like St. Louis’ Tommy Edman or Paul DeJong, for example.

Neither Blue Jays player has provided much upside in 2023, as the pair combined for eight home runs, a .207/.281/.341 slash line and a 75 wRC+ in the first half, worth an even zero fWAR. Despite those woes, they continued piling up opportunities, leading to 289 total plate appearances.

Biggio and Espinal can become second-year arbitration players next winter, with each likely to fall in the $3-million range in 2024. That is still relatively inexpensive, but it’s fair to wonder if those resources could be allocated elsewhere.

The Blue Jays’ prospect system is also fully stocked with middle infielders, including Addison Barger and Otto Lopez at triple-A along with Martinez and Leo Jimenez (all of which are on the 40-man roster) at double-A. Several of those players could transition to the majors in 2024.

Inserting a bit more youth up the middle this season could be beneficial in the long run, as Whit Merrifield’s contract carries a 2024 mutual option worth $18 million — a hefty increase from his current $6.75-million salary — which includes a $500,000 buyout.

Intangibles like baserunning and defensive versatility could help keep Biggio’s Blue Jays tenure alive past Aug. 1. So, too, might his improved offensive production from the left side, as he’s hitting .245/.288/.490 with six extra-base knocks and a 112 wRC+ in 17 games since June 11.

Espinal, meanwhile, could ultimately find himself traded out of Toronto — likely packaged with another 40-man player — if management acquires a right-handed infielder, allowing them to maximize his three seasons of team control after 2023. That outcome could also earn him additional playing time, which the Blue Jays can’t offer.

Any decision of this magnitude, while difficult to make, may check off two boxes at once: improving the big-league roster and preventing a log jam without losing moderately valuable pieces for nothing. A potential win-win scenario.