Why the Blue Jays should, or shouldn't, pursue Padres star Juan Soto

If pursuing two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani in free agency doesn’t pan out, the Toronto Blue Jays’ next best option for executing a franchise-altering move may be shifting to San Diego’s Juan Soto, who is reportedly available via trade.

Many experts throughout the industry believe the Padres’ uncertain financial situation will prevent them from extending the three-time All-Star beyond next season, especially after the club took out a near-$50 million loan to cover expenses last September.

With Soto scheduled to hit free agency a year from now, the most sensible decision would be to trade him before that point arrives, allowing the franchise to recoup part of the massive haul it sent to Washington in the 2022 blockbuster. But even with just one season of team control remaining, he likely won’t be easy to acquire.

Given that San Diego surrendered six players - including three top prospects (CJ Abrams, James Wood, Robert Hassell) and a young starting pitcher (MacKenzie Gore) — in exchange for two-and-a-half seasons of Soto, management will undoubtedly hold out as long as possible for the top compelling offer.

But should that come from the Blue Jays?

Such an impactful decision probably shouldn’t be answered by a yes-or-no question. Or, at least, not without further debating the ramifications of it, as it could dramatically alter the organization’s trajectory.

With that in mind, let’s weigh the pros and cons of the Blue Jays striking a blockbuster trade with the Padres for Soto this offseason.

Pros

Here’s where the fun begins.

Soto’s on-field value is obvious, and that’s a critical part of what makes the 25-year-old such a hot commodity, particularly for his offensive skills. He’s among the elite of the elite at creating hard contact, hitting for power, earning free passes and controlling the strike zone.

All those attributes contribute to an astounding Baseball Savant page covered in bright red, classifying the generational superstar as one of the sport’s most talented hitters. And aside from one category (sweet spot), he remained precisely that in 2023.

Despite a relatively slow start, at least by his standards, Soto still enjoyed a remarkable performance with the Padres, finishing as a 5.5-fWAR player across 162 games. He blasted a new career-high 35 home runs and finished just one RBI shy of his career-best 110, which he set in 2019.

The four-time Silver Slugger registered the second-highest wRC+ (155) of his career, excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. For context, that was the third-highest score recorded by a big-league outfielder behind Mookie Betts (167) — who also played second base and shortstop — and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr. (170).

Adding a player of Soto’s calibre to Toronto’s lineup would probably feel like a dream come true for most fans, as he’d perfectly fit batting between fellow stars Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

As a lefty, Soto would address the club’s lineup balance, replacing free agent Brandon Belt in that regard, while also supplying a massive boost in the power department. Plus, he’d add to the offence’s already impressive disciplined approach.

Since debuting as a rookie in 2018, there have been just five hitters to register a 150 wRC+ or higher: Betts (152), Soto (154), Yordan Alvarez (166), Aaron Judge (166) and Mike Trout (172). Of that group, the former National is the only one to earn more walks (640) than strikeouts (577).

The impact of acquiring Soto would likely have a similar impact to when the Dodgers traded for Betts prior to the 2020 season, joining a roster that already featured Corey Seager, Will Smith and Cody Bellinger. That move, of course, helped pave the way for their first World Series title since 1988.

Even if Toronto didn’t win it all next season, making a splash like this would surely reignite a fan base displeased with the organization’s recent postseason disappointments and better maximize a competitive window that holds uncertainty beyond 2025.

Cons

With the juicy stuff out of the way, let’s examine some of the challenges with trading for Soto, starting with the biggest question mark surrounding the left-handed outfielder: his impending free agency.

This offseason is the “Winter of Shohei.” But 12 months from now, it’ll become the “Winter of Soto” if he reaches the open market. For any team that acquires him, they’ll face overwhelming amounts of competition to retain his services.

That’s not a position the Blue Jays’ brass wants to find themselves in, especially considering they could do it all over again with Bichette and Guerrero slated to enter free agency after the 2025 season.

The most significant leverage chip Soto’s camp controls is his age, considering he won’t turn 26 until next October. Even if he waits to sign his next deal until then, he should still have an opportunity to earn one of the richest contracts in the sport’s history.

Trout (12 years, $426.5 million) currently owns that record, although he’ll likely be surpassed by his former teammate Ohtani this winter. Second on that list is Betts, who, like Trout, signed a lucrative 12-year contract at 27 years old worth $365 million.

What type of deal might Soto be seeking, you ask? Chances are only he knows, but it could end up similar to Betts’.

Soto has been worth 28.4 fWAR over his first six major league seasons, whereas Betts (2014-19) earned a 36.9 rating over his first six. But that pair would likely be much closer in total value if the youngster’s 2020 season (2.6 fWAR) hadn’t finished after just 47 games due to the shortened schedule.

Still, that should give us a decent ballpark range regarding the Dominican native’s free-agent value, which could soar even higher if he builds upon last season’s performance and his production climbs closer to his form as a 2021 NL MVP runner-up.

Defensively, while Soto’s arrival would fill a vacancy in left field and push Varsho to centre, it’d be a considerable step back from this past season’s superior outfield trio. Despite his elite offensive upside, he ranks in the bottom 10 in DRS (-15) and OAA (-19) among big-league outfielders since debuting in 2018.

It’s worth wondering how Soto’s attributes, mainly his poor range and defensive reads, will age later in his career. Could he require a move to first base or DH? If so, how might that impact Guerrero, and would it mean rostering two high–priced first basemen?

Then there’s the acquisition cost to pry the 2019 World Series champion from the Padres. It shouldn’t be as significant as the Nationals’ haul, but it’d likely cause the Blue Jays to surrender its top position player prospect, Orelvis Martinez at a bare minimum.

San Diego’s front office would undoubtedly inquire about left-hander Ricky Tiedemann, and understandably so. Toronto’s top prospect, however, is probably as untouchable as it gets.

With that being the case, the Blue Jays may need to centre a package around Martinez and reliever Nate Pearson, who’d help fortify a Padres bullpen unlikely to re-sign closer Josh Hader. It’ll also probably take a few other notable pieces to push the deal across the finish line.

That’d be a hefty price for just one season of Soto, especially for a farm system that’s been weakened repeatedly over the last few seasons. But when the reward could be a World Series Trophy, it’s certainly an avenue worth exploring.